TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs paiN (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
TheMongolzof TheMongolz, paiN
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$889,913
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$934,011

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $889,913 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 497 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc257…358ebacked TheMongolz60c258,593$155,824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102,769.2439249%192 W · 200 L+0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed paiN39c153,157$59,746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59,746.121051%107 W · 103 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed paiN41c75,865$31,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,471.5421048.1%101 W · 109 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked paiN64c44,459$28,447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,446.7983652.5%439 W · 397 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x336b…1233backed paiN40c35,749$14,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,266.1712653.2%67 W · 59 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb726…0664backed TheMongolz60c33,601$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,600.5612649.2%62 W · 64 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed paiN65c33,086$21,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,405.8123852.9%126 W · 112 L-0.8wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccb2…8586backed TheMongolz60c30,285$18,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,114.133961.5%24 W · 15 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked TheMongolz59c29,617$17,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,105.5176058%441 W · 319 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x163e…dc5bbacked paiN41c24,390$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0002245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-20.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6adc…bebabacked TheMongolz35c21,000$7,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,65013633.1%45 W · 91 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f3e…bcf8backed paiN42c17,695$7,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,390.326152.5%32 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8738…222bbacked paiN43c15,229$6,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,5004548.9%22 W · 23 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked paiN11c15,140$1,593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,593.1935850.8%182 W · 176 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed paiN56c15,135$8,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,453.9935153.8%189 W · 162 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed paiN41c13,000$5,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,279.9871645.9%329 W · 387 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed paiN58c12,569$7,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,240.1764552.9%341 W · 304 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x153a…9d6dbacked paiN40c12,169$4,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,869.5412449.2%61 W · 63 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked TheMongolz48c11,420$5,476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,943.643,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed TheMongolz61c11,334$6,938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,396.1112648.4%61 W · 65 L-10.4wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-20.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4e1abacked paiN40c11,009$4,447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,447.3512038.3%46 W · 74 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed TheMongolz58c10,000$5,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,20072453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked paiN14c9,230$1,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,306.553,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed TheMongolz57c8,528$4,861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,667.0967041.8%280 W · 390 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed TheMongolz59c8,396$4,954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,442.3719645.4%89 W · 107 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc949…fa93backed paiN40c8,000$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,2007940.5%32 W · 47 L-7.3wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-16.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked paiN40c8,000$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,199.986555.4%36 W · 29 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed TheMongolz59c7,785$4,593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,191.841649.8%207 W · 209 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked paiN48c7,499$3,617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,617.491,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d73…044bbacked TheMongolz45c6,982$3,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,822.0115441.6%64 W · 90 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6f9…bff5backed paiN35c6,811$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,400.2226046.9%122 W · 138 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-12%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked paiN40c6,325$2,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,529.9720539.5%81 W · 124 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed paiN38c6,100$2,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,339.952,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked paiN41c6,000$2,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,46014934.9%52 W · 97 L-14.1wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-21.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed paiN40c5,961$2,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,410.882045%9 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+13%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb328…4df1backed TheMongolz63c5,751$3,618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,133.172755.6%15 W · 12 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed paiN39c5,529$2,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,152.541,08150.9%550 W · 531 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x44c5…8d45backed TheMongolz60c5,500$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,20019455.2%107 W · 87 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x77a3…0e3fbacked TheMongolz57c5,368$3,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,308.4226045%117 W · 143 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed TheMongolz60c5,311$3,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,124.3746149.9%230 W · 231 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb555…0c4bbacked paiN47c5,160$2,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,439.279038.9%35 W · 55 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-32.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec0e…672cbacked TheMongolz56c5,130$2,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,280.3847738.4%183 W · 294 L-26.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-31.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2560…0b02backed TheMongolz46c5,118$2,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,76522448.7%109 W · 115 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked paiN47c5,000$2,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,354.241,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed paiN40c5,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0005947.5%28 W · 31 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x098b…1fa5backed paiN40c5,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.9712441.1%51 W · 73 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed TheMongolz54c4,969$2,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,304.1246843.4%203 W · 265 L-11.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cee…b72abacked paiN40c4,401$1,765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,765.395354.7%29 W · 24 L+4.6wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+31.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xda9b…b2a9backed TheMongolz60c4,400$2,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7602171.4%15 W · 6 L+3.7wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+29.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5b64…eaf4backed paiN37c4,306$1,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,57413446.3%62 W · 72 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5ab…0fe6backed TheMongolz57c4,153$2,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,785.943253.1%17 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x583f…2dabbacked paiN22c4,012$869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$869.134928.6%14 W · 35 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-43%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked paiN40c4,000$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6007055.7%39 W · 31 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+13%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked TheMongolz58c4,000$2,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,679.985644.6%25 W · 31 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked TheMongolz58c3,781$2,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,584.6732930.4%100 W · 229 L-21.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-50.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed TheMongolz61c3,421$2,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,334.1316750.9%85 W · 82 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed paiN40c3,333$1,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,333.246949.7%233 W · 236 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90e5…f6b0backed paiN1c3,281$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.02250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-34.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbd2…f8a0backed TheMongolz59c3,154$1,868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,286.1118752.4%98 W · 89 L-0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed TheMongolz59c3,144$1,841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,302.6146344.5%206 W · 257 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked TheMongolz59c3,022$1,795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,227.1948948.7%238 W · 251 L-0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed paiN20c2,866$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.5681843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d91…df18backed TheMongolz60c2,750$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1009565.3%62 W · 33 L+11.2wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+22.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2c5f…ced0backed paiN37c2,679$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,001.84748.9%23 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5eb2…9f23backed paiN63c2,636$1,651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,651.33450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-29.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebe7…ddf5backed TheMongolz61c2,564$1,564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$999.8434156.6%193 W · 148 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f85…bd8cbacked paiN41c2,500$1,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3383…c5c0backed TheMongolz58c2,500$1,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0501100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc68d…2fe8backed TheMongolz60c2,500$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0005129.4%15 W · 36 L-8.2wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-45.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x3b63…4acdbacked paiN38c2,493$939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$939.0513952.5%73 W · 66 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b31…6ba2backed paiN41c2,332$956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$956.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4988…518abacked TheMongolz59c2,332$1,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$956.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed paiN24c2,320$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.81,03361.6%636 W · 397 L+87.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+11.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x74bf…3affbacked paiN6c2,119$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.3840%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc70…7f2abacked TheMongolz36c2,051$738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,312.643432.4%11 W · 23 L-4.1wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed paiN40c2,000$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$797.550833.5%170 W · 338 L+14.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x34cd…9675backed TheMongolz36c2,000$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,28013144.3%58 W · 73 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4042…0bdabacked paiN51c1,977$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00018049.4%89 W · 91 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6500backed TheMongolz59c1,934$1,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$788.7929647.6%141 W · 155 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4cfe…1afcbacked TheMongolz60c1,925$1,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7701258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54b0…df70backed TheMongolz59c1,898$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.063956.4%22 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed paiN40c1,846$747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747.2528549.5%141 W · 144 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x476d…2fb4backed TheMongolz37c1,833$676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,156.83560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04cc…8e14backed paiN40c1,832$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$735.42650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9095…2f3fbacked TheMongolz61c1,785$1,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701.228852.3%46 W · 42 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2197…6d70backed TheMongolz61c1,761$1,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691.11250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed paiN44c1,701$742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741.9119549.7%97 W · 98 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34b3…507fbacked paiN38c1,672$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.111346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed TheMongolz63c1,666$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$616.5728453.5%152 W · 132 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x334e…26f1backed TheMongolz62c1,613$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.92661.5%16 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked paiN21c1,571$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.513531.4%11 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5674…8b14backed paiN41c1,566$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.9736742.8%157 W · 210 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1ec…9c6dbacked paiN66c1,515$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0007255.6%40 W · 32 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a71…e454backed paiN39c1,503$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.1724944.6%111 W · 138 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed TheMongolz61c1,500$914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585.9944648.4%216 W · 230 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a76…ccddbacked paiN12c1,474$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe41f…d9dcbacked paiN60c1,463$885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$884.5465650.3%330 W · 326 L-15.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed paiN39c1,455$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.511735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-39.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked TheMongolz57c1,404$796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608.261,15748.2%558 W · 599 L+3.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b45…d5f4backed TheMongolz36c1,389$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$888.892142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.