Tennis · resolved market
Lincoln: James McCabe vs Bernard Tomic
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d53aa4d9f60ddc61f4cde5974b7de4616a8cee5ac0f3110974f9b33ba38c578
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bernard Tomicof James McCabe, Bernard Tomic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,879
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,927
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,879 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe9d3…079fbacked James McCabe | 27c | 2,593$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 488 | 55.9%273 W · 215 L | -20.0wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Bernard Tomic | 38c | 2,072$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,283.11 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed James McCabe | 18c | 2,049$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.69 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed James McCabe | 67c | 1,600$1,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,072 | 600 | 53.8%323 W · 277 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed James McCabe | 51c | 1,583$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.33 | 1,227 | 53.2%653 W · 574 L | -5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Bernard Tomic | 63c | 1,512$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.33 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe521…9caebacked James McCabe | 4c | 1,249$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 445 | 27.2%121 W · 324 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Bernard Tomic | 74c | 1,006$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.51 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked James McCabe | 52c | 952.5$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.87 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce8…4dd6backed Bernard Tomic | 60c | 811.67$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.67 | 579 | 50.9%295 W · 284 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca3…9613backed James McCabe | 69c | 727.81$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.86 | 205 | 65.4%134 W · 71 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Bernard Tomic | 48c | 611.57$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.58 | 2,061 | 48.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L | +35.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Bernard Tomic | 49c | 600$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.09 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd47…17dfbacked Bernard Tomic | 58c | 565.12$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.35 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2de6…fb10backed Bernard Tomic | 51c | 457.65$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.65 | 452 | 56.2%254 W · 198 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked James McCabe | 44c | 441.5$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.26 | 1,688 | 45.4%766 W · 922 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bec…7800backed Bernard Tomic | 79c | 422.94$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.94 | 277 | 53.4%148 W · 129 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed James McCabe | 20c | 377$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.79 | 4,703 | 49.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L | +166.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Bernard Tomic | 49c | 322.41$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.1 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…e5b2backed Bernard Tomic | 33c | 304.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.73 | 401 | 44.4%178 W · 223 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed James McCabe | 26c | 295.41$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.75 | 140 | 28.6%40 W · 100 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…eee6backed James McCabe | 9c | 220$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 318 | 41.8%133 W · 185 L | -16.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked James McCabe | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 960 | 49.5%475 W · 485 L | +16.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…a265backed James McCabe | 53c | 216.44$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.64 | 2,281 | 52%1,187 W · 1,094 L | +82.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Bernard Tomic | 46c | 210.64$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.6 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Bernard Tomic | 61c | 203.18$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.31 | 1,708 | 44.8%766 W · 942 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Bernard Tomic | 80c | 200.95$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 864 | 70%605 W · 259 L | +43.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Bernard Tomic | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed James McCabe | 54c | 196.3$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bernard Tomic | 59c | 192$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.35 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…af12backed James McCabe | 55c | 188.66$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.64 | 2,032 | 46.9%952 W · 1,080 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…706abacked Bernard Tomic | 80c | 171.66$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.53 | 1,795 | 46.6%837 W · 958 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc5…d36ebacked James McCabe | 24c | 165.84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 180 | 44.4%80 W · 100 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed James McCabe | 16c | 140$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 684 | 30%205 W · 479 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Bernard Tomic | 80c | 136.34$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 1,959 | 43.7%857 W · 1,102 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Bernard Tomic | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Bernard Tomic | 60c | 122.43$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 923 | 52.5%485 W · 438 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Bernard Tomic | 64c | 122.31$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.91 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd072…95e8backed James McCabe | 32c | 118.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 248 | 51.2%127 W · 121 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcb…9f08backed James McCabe | 22c | 115.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 206 | 35.9%74 W · 132 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f34…ed6abacked Bernard Tomic | 59c | 104.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.09 | 397 | 51.4%204 W · 193 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186a…559dbacked Bernard Tomic | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 449 | 52.8%237 W · 212 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58b…ef84backed James McCabe | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 124 | 41.1%51 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed James McCabe | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Bernard Tomic | 68c | 99.05$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.69 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6b…ec86backed James McCabe | 44c | 97.23$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.58 | 1,062 | 31.8%338 W · 724 L | -27.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a20…d606backed James McCabe | 67c | 89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.63 | 926 | 74.6%691 W · 235 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…5f5abacked Bernard Tomic | 71c | 81.54$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 1,010 | 39.2%396 W · 614 L | -23.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed James McCabe | 52c | 73.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked James McCabe | 50c | 67.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed James McCabe | 48c | 63.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 3,068 | 57.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L | +173.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58ac…7636backed James McCabe | 44c | 57.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc95d…d369backed Bernard Tomic | 59c | 57.33$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1aa…9359backed James McCabe | 27c | 57.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1e…f992backed James McCabe | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 654 | 34.9%228 W · 426 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed James McCabe | 23c | 54.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 1,880 | 48.5%912 W · 968 L | +8.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Bernard Tomic | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 423 | 53.7%227 W · 196 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15cf…4d9bbacked James McCabe | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 574 | 49.1%282 W · 292 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf56d…3658backed James McCabe | 44c | 48.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5331…3672backed James McCabe | 51c | 47.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 313 | 47.6%149 W · 164 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked James McCabe | 42c | 44.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed James McCabe | 52c | 40.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 4,533 | 67.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L | +306.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89b6…886ebacked James McCabe | 27c | 40.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 176 | 60.2%106 W · 70 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9575…cd83backed Bernard Tomic | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 220 | 46.8%103 W · 117 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4126…e68bbacked Bernard Tomic | 75c | 39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 1,159 | 69%800 W · 359 L | +56.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0da8…54afbacked Bernard Tomic | 51c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe4…f12fbacked Bernard Tomic | 47c | 38.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 586 | 65.5%384 W · 202 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed James McCabe | 53c | 37.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 2,485 | 35.9%893 W · 1,592 L | -28.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…c61cbacked Bernard Tomic | 65c | 36.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 194 | 66%128 W · 66 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd1…f311backed Bernard Tomic | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 255 | 51%130 W · 125 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…b694backed Bernard Tomic | 68c | 29.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 1,429 | 44.2%631 W · 798 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cdb…4cc2backed James McCabe | 54c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +4.1wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Bernard Tomic | 77c | 26.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed James McCabe | 66c | 26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 978 | 52%509 W · 469 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b1…7cf8backed James McCabe | 43c | 24.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Bernard Tomic | 79c | 22.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 502 | 68.3%343 W · 159 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked James McCabe | 54c | 22.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 2,561 | 63%1,613 W · 948 L | -10.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ec…a2f9backed Bernard Tomic | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 450 | 53.3%240 W · 210 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7faf…e2b5backed Bernard Tomic | 80c | 14.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.87 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Bernard Tomic | 79c | 12.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.7 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.