MLB · resolved market

Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9003ef27d5c3010c7cee99d03e065cc17e39bbfe5605765e7d79c8b555c517a5

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Washington Nationalsof Philadelphia Phillies, Washington Nationals
Resolved: Apr 1, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $22,608
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $22,908

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,608 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Philadelphia Phillies	50c	6,759$3,400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,399.5	12,247	46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L	-68.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc9…4a2cbacked Washington Nationals	51c	3,999$2,039 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,959.45	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Washington Nationals	44c	2,886$1,257 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,628.88	2,389	43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L	-25.4wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Washington Nationals	50c	2,570$1,285 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,285	155	50.3%78 W · 77 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Philadelphia Phillies	50c	2,425$1,213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,212.5	191	43.5%83 W · 108 L	-4.4wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Philadelphia Phillies	48c	1,580$755 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$754.61	1,029	51.2%527 W · 502 L	-6.2wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Washington Nationals	62c	1,280$793 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$487.6	9,728	46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L	+32.8wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Washington Nationals	52c	1,017$534 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$483.34	5,401	50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L	+17.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Washington Nationals	73c	972.84$710 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$262.49	1,723	50.3%867 W · 856 L	+55.0wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Philadelphia Phillies	48c	800.79$388 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$387.62	1,213	40.5%491 W · 722 L	-32.1wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Philadelphia Phillies	32c	644.74$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.45	650	50.3%327 W · 323 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Washington Nationals	49c	613.69$301 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$312.62	80	32.5%26 W · 54 L	-5.2wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed Washington Nationals	52c	587.82$306 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$282.15	125	52%65 W · 60 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Philadelphia Phillies	46c	563.5$259 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259.21	57	47.4%27 W · 30 L	-2.8wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Philadelphia Phillies	59c	474.39$282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$281.55	6,116	55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L	+344.6wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Philadelphia Phillies	49c	436.63$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.95	781	46.4%362 W · 419 L	+11.8wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Washington Nationals	53c	425.54$224 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$201.7	1,291	51%658 W · 633 L	-15.5wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa991…62c7backed Washington Nationals	57c	389.62$221 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$168.48	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Washington Nationals	51c	334.36$171 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$163.84	6,899	50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L	-7.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9348…8cfbbacked Washington Nationals	59c	330.64$195 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$135.56	62	43.5%27 W · 35 L	-3.9wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a97…72ebbacked Philadelphia Phillies	40c	230.94$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.97	42	31%13 W · 29 L	-6.8wins	-0.16per pick	47cpaid	-42.2%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Philadelphia Phillies	40c	217.93$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.16	1,269	51.1%648 W · 621 L	+23.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb03c…b352backed Philadelphia Phillies	47c	206$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.82	39	35.9%14 W · 25 L	-5.0wins	-0.13per pick	49cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x39c5…5a2fbacked Philadelphia Phillies	48c	201.83$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.88	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-2.4wins	-0.12per pick	55cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals	69c	161.29$111 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	10,846	51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L	+137.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Washington Nationals	54c	144.06$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.27	665	51.1%340 W · 325 L	-17.0wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Philadelphia Phillies	32c	132.83$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.96	286	46.2%132 W · 154 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2942…a018backed Washington Nationals	53c	124.68$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.6	133	51.9%69 W · 64 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Philadelphia Phillies	31c	119.83$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.15	393	51.9%204 W · 189 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Washington Nationals	48c	112.37$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.26	1,269	47.4%602 W · 667 L	-31.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed Washington Nationals	52c	112.06$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.79	283	47.7%135 W · 148 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28e8…6080backed Washington Nationals	52c	111.89$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.71	473	50.7%240 W · 233 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Washington Nationals	54c	111.07$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.09	1,345	47.7%642 W · 703 L	+10.2wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Philadelphia Phillies	51c	109.93$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.46	1,215	47.6%578 W · 637 L	-19.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked Philadelphia Phillies	52c	103.83$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.65	243	48.1%117 W · 126 L	-8.5wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7634…600dbacked Philadelphia Phillies	46c	99.99$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	603	50.1%302 W · 301 L	-10.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Philadelphia Phillies	52c	95.45$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.63	1,043	49%511 W · 532 L	+3.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x04eb…f50dbacked Washington Nationals	54c	87.29$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.29	187	54%101 W · 86 L	-8.0wins	-0.04per pick	58cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x700f…a69bbacked Philadelphia Phillies	45c	87.27$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.27	63	57.1%36 W · 27 L	+7.1wins	+0.11per pick	46cpaid	+28.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Washington Nationals	43c	86.9$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.81	1,865	52%970 W · 895 L	+50.8wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ac5…f963backed Philadelphia Phillies	57c	76.95$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.14	97	56.7%55 W · 42 L	+2.5wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae1c…3678backed Washington Nationals	54c	65.26$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.02	261	51%133 W · 128 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0138…8451backed Philadelphia Phillies	39c	61.82$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.11	98	51%50 W · 48 L	+3.8wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e6d…2671backed Philadelphia Phillies	49c	56.78$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.82	383	52.2%200 W · 183 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbe2…6158backed Washington Nationals	54c	54.39$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.22	466	59.7%278 W · 188 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	59cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Washington Nationals	54c	54.02$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.85	569	46.9%267 W · 302 L	+5.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f1d…7ff3backed Philadelphia Phillies	47c	51.5$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.21	51	47.1%24 W · 27 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Washington Nationals	51c	50.37$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.68	1,292	50.2%648 W · 644 L	+18.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfae5…f940backed Philadelphia Phillies	47c	50$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.5	816	51.8%423 W · 393 L	-15.3wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec66…e58fbacked Washington Nationals	55c	49.53$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.29	312	50%156 W · 156 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8632…4696backed Washington Nationals	53c	49.27$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.16	144	44.4%64 W · 80 L	-7.0wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Philadelphia Phillies	45c	47.47$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.29	107	47.7%51 W · 56 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x06e7…3acabacked Philadelphia Phillies	52c	46.69$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.28	294	50.7%149 W · 145 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Philadelphia Phillies	27c	42.97$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.72	841	22.7%191 W · 650 L	-81.4wins	-0.10per pick	32cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0056…a7f7backed Washington Nationals	53c	40.27$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.93	144	42.4%61 W · 83 L	-9.9wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb81e…8ab9backed Washington Nationals	54c	38.9$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.89	478	48.5%232 W · 246 L	-15.3wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc18a…b3dbbacked Philadelphia Phillies	47c	37.04$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.43	23	47.8%11 W · 12 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1a8c…880abacked Washington Nationals	53c	36.64$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.22	37	40.5%15 W · 22 L	-3.8wins	-0.10per pick	51cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x50fd…ee77backed Washington Nationals	54c	36.01$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.57	330	51.8%171 W · 159 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x68cc…e8c8backed Washington Nationals	55c	35.38$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.92	326	47.9%156 W · 170 L	-8.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f39…d603backed Philadelphia Phillies	40c	34.42$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.77	137	42.3%58 W · 79 L	-7.9wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Washington Nationals	53c	31.91$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	678	49.3%334 W · 344 L	+7.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Philadelphia Phillies	53c	29.44$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.58	5,234	56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L	+130.4wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd77e…e9b9backed Washington Nationals	55c	29.44$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.27	22	63.6%14 W · 8 L	+1.4wins	+0.06per pick	57cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa427…f87fbacked Washington Nationals	52c	28.8$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.82	99	48.5%48 W · 51 L	-6.5wins	-0.07per pick	55cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e73…3f4ebacked Philadelphia Phillies	56c	27.95$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.52	325	50.5%164 W · 161 L	+3.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x973e…22ebbacked Washington Nationals	53c	25.67$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.06	899	50.6%455 W · 444 L	-24.6wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4361…75afbacked Washington Nationals	51c	24.75$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.13	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.7wins	-0.33per pick	53cpaid	-60.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb277…c7eebacked Philadelphia Phillies	61c	22.86$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.97	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	46cpaid	+19.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f22…0fb4backed Philadelphia Phillies	51c	20.97$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.67	217	46.5%101 W · 116 L	-10.6wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2ca…e04dbacked Washington Nationals	52c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.6	47	46.8%22 W · 25 L	-3.8wins	-0.08per pick	55cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc510…065dbacked Washington Nationals	55c	18.6$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.28	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+36.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
NRFI: Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event