Middle East · resolved market
Nothing Ever Happens: Iran Strike Edition
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9194a6b9338ef10dad9b40a9d72000869cde140799f922ad239f5ad2a62c1a1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,871
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,909
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,871 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed No | 4c | 2,994$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.37 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac5…cf2ebacked No | 6c | 2,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b7…e00bbacked No | 7c | 1,431$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +133.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 77c | 1,054$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.43 | 248 | 39.5%98 W · 150 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ea…ffbabacked No | 11c | 876.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf679…c98bbacked No | 15c | 844.94$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba01…aa2fbacked No | 11c | 642.31$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 78c | 601.76$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.27 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c7…191abacked No | 22c | 599.98$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 75 | 20%15 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e67…ac8bbacked No | 19c | 529.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed No | 5c | 506.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 206 | 17%35 W · 171 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfb…7632backed No | 20c | 503.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b3…eddcbacked No | 21c | 475.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe14…3bd1backed No | 15c | 431.87$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 6c | 420.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b8…5200backed No | 24c | 400$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd92…8f8abacked No | 4c | 362.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a1…06e5backed No | 7c | 357.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 80c | 349.99$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd25e…f458backed No | 8c | 344.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 8c | 302.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a4…996dbacked Yes | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2171…9f37backed No | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db3…77ccbacked No | 9c | 278.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…24ffbacked No | 20c | 249.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | +8.3wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +64%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…3272backed No | 8c | 248.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4272…3e0cbacked No | 5c | 232.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed No | 11c | 226.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4938…4d58backed Yes | 79c | 223.42$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f76…1d92backed No | 9c | 223.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa531…801abacked No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe21c…9002backed No | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 12c | 195.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 19c | 183.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes | 78c | 172.08$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.58 | 290 | 27.9%81 W · 209 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f7…274dbacked No | 13c | 145.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -32%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd512…79b3backed No | 17c | 131.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b2…7224backed No | 16c | 128$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0814…0a81backed No | 18c | 110.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1293…f4e7backed No | 11c | 105.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b80…1e08backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd92…493fbacked No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 21c | 99.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc0…8100backed No | 13c | 90.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | -5.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -49%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x313d…47cbbacked No | 23c | 88.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 77c | 76.55$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450e…80aebacked Yes | 78c | 69.71$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 77c | 64.1$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +8.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 66c | 64.03$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22c9…ba53backed No | 21c | 61.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed No | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 196 | 39.8%78 W · 118 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca5…e6c9backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…45b2backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -41%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33f…6403backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8d…fa5dbacked Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 74c | 36.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 91 | 25.3%23 W · 68 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 76 | 18.4%14 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9119…425abacked Yes | 79c | 24.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d77…fdbebacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…3435backed Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +4.1wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd63a…90a6backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.