TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Cricket · resolved market

Punjab Kings vs. Royal Challengers Bangalore

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Royal Challengers Bangaloreof Punjab Kings, Royal Challengers Bangalore
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Cricketevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$281,514
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$281,468

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $281,514 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 300 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Cricket is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Cricket
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5783…7e69backed Punjab Kings49c34,866$17,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,084.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4511…3efebacked Royal Challengers Bangalore51c34,866$17,782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,084.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Punjab Kings38c13,037$5,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,016.853246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e55…afe9backed Punjab Kings65c12,813$8,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,366.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8806…6a9bbacked Punjab Kings47c12,689$6,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,012.6757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x37d8…b6ddbacked Royal Challengers Bangalore54c11,964$6,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,531.07450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x208e…bcb3backed Punjab Kings32c10,831$3,427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,427.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2873…ad0abacked Punjab Kings20c10,023$2,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,048.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Punjab Kings46c8,765$4,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,031.67933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-27.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x76dc…17b4backed Punjab Kings27c8,578$2,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,328.5113336.8%49 W · 84 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15e0…8d86backed Royal Challengers Bangalore51c8,032$4,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,942.05560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+29%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd12d…d764backed Royal Challengers Bangalore46c5,758$2,676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,082.05944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ee0…98cfbacked Royal Challengers Bangalore54c4,884$2,637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,246.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfceb…37dabacked Royal Challengers Bangalore54c3,704$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,703.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49ce…13eebacked Royal Challengers Bangalore78c2,841$2,218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f58…f06fbacked Royal Challengers Bangalore55c2,784$1,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,251.98580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.35per pick45cpaid+138.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf38f…bba8backed Punjab Kings41c2,259$919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$919.1333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd3c…47a0backed Punjab Kings48c2,100$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fac…ca99backed Punjab Kings47c2,100$987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5bb…a429backed Punjab Kings48c2,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9603452.9%18 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd986…1320backed Punjab Kings46c2,000$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$919.986048.3%29 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Punjab Kings47c2,000$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$939.97250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38c3…248abacked Punjab Kings47c1,915$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80f8…6713backed Royal Challengers Bangalore54c1,852$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.85475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+33.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b2a…c016backed Punjab Kings7c1,836$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+89.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc62…d4d0backed Punjab Kings56c1,600$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8961070%7 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc87f…fb1fbacked Royal Challengers Bangalore63c1,561$981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$580.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf295…56f7backed Royal Challengers Bangalore40c1,500$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$900.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6eb8…74b8backed Royal Challengers Bangalore52c1,500$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7201100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9718…fa5dbacked Punjab Kings48c1,495$718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$717.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf86…601fbacked Royal Challengers Bangalore55c1,438$787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.151346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fb4…da84backed Royal Challengers Bangalore49c1,378$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$708.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+105.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc456…8996backed Punjab Kings28c1,356$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.843534.3%12 W · 23 L-3.5wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-37.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xde2f…1209backed Royal Challengers Bangalore54c1,224$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.8715437%57 W · 97 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e67…e39dbacked Royal Challengers Bangalore54c1,198$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+84.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3124…014bbacked Punjab Kings8c1,173$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.781361.5%8 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.27per pick35cpaid+72.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x37bb…06e8backed Punjab Kings59c1,139$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670.93450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+40.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f0c…ca14backed Punjab Kings44c1,123$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.8811458.8%67 W · 47 L+12.3wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+23%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe297…314abacked Punjab Kings48c1,102$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.11425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick34cpaid+18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2ef…543cbacked Royal Challengers Bangalore53c1,100$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5171100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e05…b9e1backed Royal Challengers Bangalore52c1,081$562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0563…340dbacked Punjab Kings50c1,054$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.412669.2%18 W · 8 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick57cpaid+22.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0674…d6c1backed Royal Challengers Bangalore52c1,052$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.0710045%45 W · 55 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b8d…fb67backed Royal Challengers Bangalore49c1,044$516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+102.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc279…fd5abacked Royal Challengers Bangalore53c1,038$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.743100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+89.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb9c…e49ebacked Royal Challengers Bangalore52c1,019$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f08…2ae3backed Royal Challengers Bangalore53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4701100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Punjab Kings46c1,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46015429.9%46 W · 108 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-24.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad8c…f563backed Royal Challengers Bangalore47c976.26$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.26366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+49.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05c0…89bbbacked Royal Challengers Bangalore53c962$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x831e…a220backed Royal Challengers Bangalore53c952.98$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf42a…8470backed Punjab Kings49c938.73$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.931258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+60.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x44af…28a6backed Royal Challengers Bangalore53c928.23$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+89.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb0e…47b8backed Punjab Kings29c923.34$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27140%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4236…0174backed Punjab Kings19c916.06$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Punjab Kings44c874.89$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.263348.5%16 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98a0…1b3dbacked Royal Challengers Bangalore52c865.38$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.38366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Punjab Kings32c830.73$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.051540%6 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-21.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf0f…620cbacked Royal Challengers Bangalore50c804.22$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c67…13d1backed Punjab Kings67c746.27$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb42…76a5backed Royal Challengers Bangalore68c729.42$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.0912357.7%71 W · 52 L+11.4wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+8.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe411…04c5backed Royal Challengers Bangalore51c693.16$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.652035%7 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-26.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bb6…ab4ebacked Punjab Kings51c681.98$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09c2…a042backed Punjab Kings39c673.27$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.984156.1%23 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefda…4e3cbacked Punjab Kings59c650.17$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.672958.6%17 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick59cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ffc…6988backed Punjab Kings8c650$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick16cpaid-81.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fd9…544abacked Royal Challengers Bangalore80c625$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1251100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e19…95dabacked Punjab Kings22c613.25$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.63837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-44.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e17…2e74backed Punjab Kings50c603.94$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b33…391ebacked Punjab Kings48c600$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9592…a450backed Royal Challengers Bangalore80c598.32$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Punjab Kings51c589.61$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b20…a52ebacked Punjab Kings50c577.88$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ba0…471ebacked Royal Challengers Bangalore53c577.45$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1de5…00d0backed Punjab Kings43c568.23$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d90…c39cbacked Royal Challengers Bangalore53c553.49$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f51…097ebacked Royal Challengers Bangalore52c550$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+21.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Royal Challengers Bangalore50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2501100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44f1…9878backed Punjab Kings50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84b8…8590backed Punjab Kings49c494.39$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00de…3e7dbacked Punjab Kings52c488.15$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.796440.6%26 W · 38 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c3c…5cb5backed Royal Challengers Bangalore48c454.56$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+106.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0aad…8941backed Punjab Kings14c453.01$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbd6…a014backed Royal Challengers Bangalore52c450$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2162100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93c2…29f9backed Royal Challengers Bangalore45c444.5$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeee8…621ebacked Punjab Kings44c441.91$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.06425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-43.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddb6…5465backed Punjab Kings52c419.41$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe122…33febacked Punjab Kings49c411.32$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ccf…61a1backed Punjab Kings48c400$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-59%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe544…3cfcbacked Royal Challengers Bangalore51c399.99$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+29.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1e3…63fbbacked Punjab Kings49c396.43$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a05…e246backed Punjab Kings49c392.83$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.812860.7%17 W · 11 L+4.1wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+33.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xa1da…94c8backed Royal Challengers Bangalore54c388.37$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.72450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb877…a13fbacked Royal Challengers Bangalore64c386.1$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.256839.7%27 W · 41 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c96…959fbacked Royal Challengers Bangalore52c384.62$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5316…8ff6backed Royal Challengers Bangalore52c380.96$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.15666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+32.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7703…34b9backed Punjab Kings48c349.73$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.8730%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x664b…a286backed Royal Challengers Bangalore53c347.25$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.212240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+16.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xafb8…4822backed Punjab Kings11c344.35$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.311136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x754f…4e38backed Royal Challengers Bangalore60c333.5$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.52458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Cricket and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.