Stocks · resolved market
Will Opendoor dip to $5.50 in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x943f131a78d2805f89db075929b22ca93c8fc72b9624ec81909c7bdf67830a35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,305
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,425
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,305 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 17c | 28,770$4,938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,938.5 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 64c | 1,495$951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.27 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 65c | 1,030$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.18 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 76c | 967$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.92 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 44c | 870.3$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.33 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 63c | 826.33$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.47 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 654.33$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.72 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 37c | 651.74$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked No | 76c | 600$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 32c | 598.06$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.1 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 58c | 580.43$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.29 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 76c | 483$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.08 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked No | 75c | 400$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca03…91b8backed No | 41c | 399.99$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed Yes | 24c | 377.03$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.74 | 1,111 | 43.7%486 W · 625 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…ee92backed Yes | 32c | 290$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 67c | 271$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.16 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72a8…c016backed Yes | 35c | 266.73$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.37 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 22c | 235.43$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.64 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…0215backed Yes | 32c | 230.85$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.49 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 60c | 210$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.53 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 92 | 4.3%4 W · 88 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 60c | 165.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.14 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 54c | 160$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed No | 57c | 127.24$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.41 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 117.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.2 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 35c | 116.9$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae50…0119backed No | 60c | 113.27$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.96 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…8b8ebacked Yes | 50c | 112.4$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.04 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 43c | 90$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 31c | 89.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Yes | 44c | 88.39$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 482 | 34%164 W · 318 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 71c | 69.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.52 | 90 | 26.7%24 W · 66 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 76c | 56$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…cbbebacked No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 127 | 27.6%35 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a7…46c4backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d35…f929backed No | 57c | 49.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 31c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97b8…b7b5backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf24…ef71backed Yes | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4d…0645backed Yes | 64c | 32.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4c…f971backed No | 56c | 21.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 66c | 20.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 75 | 77.3%58 W · 17 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…9836backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe20…b92ebacked No | 56c | 19.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd524…4341backed Yes | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…dbd3backed No | 58c | 18.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe950…e3b8backed No | 59c | 17.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Opendoor dip to $5.50 in January?this page
- Will Opendoor dip to $4.25 in January?No won
- Will Opendoor dip to $5 in January?No won
- Will Opendoor reach $10.25 in January?No won
- Will Opendoor reach $11.50 in January?No won
- Will Opendoor reach $6.50 in January?Yes won
- Will Opendoor reach $7 in January?Yes won
- Will Opendoor reach $7.50 in January?Yes won
- Will Opendoor reach $8.25 in January?No won
- Will Opendoor reach $9.25 in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.