TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: BBL Esports vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Fire Flux Esportsof BBL Esports, Fire Flux Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$109,274
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$116,688

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $109,274 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa103…1c14backed BBL Esports54c12,000$6,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,479.991631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.8wins-0.17per pick48cpaid-31.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Fire Flux Esports61c8,569$5,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,312.2640945.7%187 W · 222 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked BBL Esports39c8,030$3,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1002343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Fire Flux Esports45c4,069$1,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,240.5728143.4%122 W · 159 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Fire Flux Esports52c3,414$1,776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,637.681,35839%530 W · 828 L-57.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Fire Flux Esports45c3,338$1,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,835.794542.2%19 W · 26 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked BBL Esports36c3,021$1,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,088.8453355.3%295 W · 238 L+24.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed BBL Esports54c2,812$1,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,512.8226447.3%125 W · 139 L+9.6wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Fire Flux Esports58c2,706$1,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,130.4256357.9%326 W · 237 L+36.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Fire Flux Esports63c2,322$1,455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$867.3150944.6%227 W · 282 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-18.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed BBL Esports36c2,112$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.941,27632.1%409 W · 867 L-67.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Fire Flux Esports48c1,976$949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,027.0265559.4%389 W · 266 L+50.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Fire Flux Esports63c1,562$983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.0578562.8%493 W · 292 L+56.2wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Fire Flux Esports56c1,393$776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$617.1384838.2%324 W · 524 L-50.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-24.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x86df…d902backed BBL Esports36c1,154$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.1313355.6%74 W · 59 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid0%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e2c…787cbacked BBL Esports29c1,084$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.363857.9%22 W · 16 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4272…10c2backed BBL Esports34c1,000$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.5540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-42.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Fire Flux Esports65c894.78$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.5594361.2%577 W · 366 L+58.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed BBL Esports28c819.99$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.622018.2%40 W · 180 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed BBL Esports34c811.02$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.5156551.2%289 W · 276 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed BBL Esports55c762$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.993148.1%448 W · 483 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed BBL Esports59c679.15$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40034857.5%200 W · 148 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Fire Flux Esports39c636.71$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.6793049.4%459 W · 471 L-0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9b2…8e7dbacked Fire Flux Esports53c600$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2824650%23 W · 23 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Fire Flux Esports71c528.13$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.3338950.6%197 W · 192 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed BBL Esports41c513.87$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.6962156.4%350 W · 271 L+13.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked BBL Esports55c500$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27526450%132 W · 132 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x489b…a6ecbacked BBL Esports44c500$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2201145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed BBL Esports54c499.99$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27018143.6%79 W · 102 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf99…9840backed BBL Esports55c499.99$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.9918049.4%89 W · 91 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb1…aebabacked Fire Flux Esports44c499.23$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.334445.5%20 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+24.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x161a…05c5backed BBL Esports4c430.22$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.35450%2 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+86.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Fire Flux Esports58c407.8$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.551,24749.6%619 W · 628 L-2.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked BBL Esports48c404.17$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1947047.1%33 W · 37 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x015f…d051backed Fire Flux Esports55c403.73$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.732152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f5b…2501backed Fire Flux Esports38c400$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2481414.3%2 W · 12 L-4.5wins-0.32per pick46cpaid-69.5%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed BBL Esports55c399.98$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.9953442.1%225 W · 309 L-15.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed03…1caabacked BBL Esports55c358$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.96448.4%31 W · 33 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked BBL Esports60c355.71$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.5768458.3%399 W · 285 L+56.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Fire Flux Esports63c347.69$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.3753159.1%314 W · 217 L+41.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed BBL Esports30c333.47$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.091,49046.6%695 W · 795 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xceae…8e45backed Fire Flux Esports66c305.15$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.151275%9 W · 3 L+3.7wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+61.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb185…98cdbacked BBL Esports36c302.28$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.262536%9 W · 16 L-4.2wins-0.17per pick53cpaid-39.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbf33…0353backed Fire Flux Esports46c286.17$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.5333346.5%155 W · 178 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe8b…2bacbacked Fire Flux Esports51c284.99$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.65475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick40cpaid+118.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5008…9466backed BBL Esports42c283.59$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.254434.1%15 W · 29 L-3.9wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-37.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Fire Flux Esports60c283$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.811,60845.2%727 W · 881 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x191f…f09ebacked BBL Esports50c264.87$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1325048%24 W · 26 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe02f…e825backed Fire Flux Esports67c255.38$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.168100%8 W · 0 L+3.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+70.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Fire Flux Esports57c240.81$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.8596245.1%434 W · 528 L-18.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked BBL Esports41c238.43$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.7738548.6%187 W · 198 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b5f…3492backed BBL Esports55c234.55$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12934253.2%182 W · 160 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7b8…31e6backed Fire Flux Esports43c232.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.836145.7%165 W · 196 L+22.8wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2cb5…819abacked BBL Esports39c205.79$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.654153.7%22 W · 19 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked BBL Esports22c200$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4488844.4%394 W · 494 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fcc…9f91backed BBL Esports25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060022.7%136 W · 464 L-26.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Fire Flux Esports67c197.77$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.191,30943.8%573 W · 736 L-44.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x54a1…f88bbacked BBL Esports51c196.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008936%32 W · 57 L-9.0wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-29.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Fire Flux Esports52c190.1$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.9339646%182 W · 214 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe32a…cd33backed BBL Esports55c178.63$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.2543059.8%257 W · 173 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x448a…d6b8backed BBL Esports51c174.19$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.5720%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked BBL Esports32c173.28$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1690733.1%300 W · 607 L-89.7wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-40.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed BBL Esports53c168$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.5546347.1%218 W · 245 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7585…dcb3backed Fire Flux Esports42c160$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.8450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a41…20bdbacked Fire Flux Esports63c159.07$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.0612250%61 W · 61 L+7.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8d25…0f79backed Fire Flux Esports61c155.01$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.011872.2%13 W · 5 L+4.0wins+0.22per pick50cpaid+55.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9d30…d31dbacked Fire Flux Esports43c141.1$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.121435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeca9…1799backed Fire Flux Esports55c137.78$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.524542.2%19 W · 26 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0844…bf81backed Fire Flux Esports57c122.02$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.0227956.6%158 W · 121 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b28…bf9fbacked Fire Flux Esports37c119.73$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.731747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Fire Flux Esports58c115$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.676235.5%22 W · 40 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4faf…54d2backed BBL Esports26c112.95$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.53366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed BBL Esports24c99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0635331.2%110 W · 243 L-29.2wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-38.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x15ef…647cbacked BBL Esports56c88.81$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504052.5%21 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed BBL Esports54c86.96$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.9617948.6%87 W · 92 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2489…463bbacked Fire Flux Esports46c86.96$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.961258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+84.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed BBL Esports53c86$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.699846%459 W · 539 L-27.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35ae…b929backed BBL Esports35c85$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3014443.1%62 W · 82 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3685…6d99backed BBL Esports25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.74042.5%17 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ed1…fd2abacked BBL Esports41c79.27$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3922440.2%90 W · 134 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5807…74dcbacked Fire Flux Esports79c75.95$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.959455.3%52 W · 42 L-5.6wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f4b…69debacked Fire Flux Esports55c72.47$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.4751948.4%251 W · 268 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed BBL Esports39c72.06$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9974642.8%319 W · 427 L-27.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6cd3…226ebacked BBL Esports33c71.14$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7816420.1%33 W · 131 L-20.1wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-49.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe3b0…b4d1backed BBL Esports57c70.18$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4011844.1%52 W · 66 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5cef…dbcbbacked BBL Esports47c62.23$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.320347.3%96 W · 107 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Fire Flux Esports79c60.92$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.581,60137.5%600 W · 1,001 L-75.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked BBL Esports45c58$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9732157.6%185 W · 136 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcbb…07d9backed Fire Flux Esports61c56.23$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.932941.4%12 W · 17 L-6.2wins-0.21per pick63cpaid-35.1%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked BBL Esports45c52.57$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.831,37647.1%648 W · 728 L+10.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa658…f93ebacked Fire Flux Esports58c51.46$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.4627360.1%164 W · 109 L-10.7wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fb1…b109backed BBL Esports45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.518254.4%99 W · 83 L+22.3wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+27.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x3e9f…3988backed Fire Flux Esports71c49.1$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.246454.7%35 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cf5…1095backed Fire Flux Esports62c46.05$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7211770.9%83 W · 34 L+8.2wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf161…0d3dbacked Fire Flux Esports77c41.69$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.691070%7 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.24per pick46cpaid+69.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd533…d6a1backed Fire Flux Esports53c41$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2743843.6%191 W · 247 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3252…1d21backed Fire Flux Esports50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209742.3%41 W · 56 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3546…1a58backed BBL Esports25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106826.5%18 W · 50 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdfae…155ebacked BBL Esports46c39.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.55955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+11.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6ce…3f1dbacked BBL Esports42c35.56$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153467.6%23 W · 11 L+3.9wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+19.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.