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Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: BBL Esports vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Fire Flux Esportsof BBL Esports, Fire Flux Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$197,977
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$233,407

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $197,977 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 170 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x82dc…5700backed Fire Flux Esports64c12,806$8,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,660.2657157.8%330 W · 241 L+36.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf377…4159backed Fire Flux Esports51c10,189$5,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,988.581662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+30.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Fire Flux Esports54c8,436$4,563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,873.2841445.7%189 W · 225 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked BBL Esports60c8,000$4,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,8004841.7%20 W · 28 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-19.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked Fire Flux Esports40c5,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0002343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed BBL Esports60c5,000$2,989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,989.2352455.2%289 W · 235 L-12.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5b0…180dbacked BBL Esports38c3,030$1,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,162.1250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb726…4d2bbacked BBL Esports41c2,938$1,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,214.131030%3 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-24.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed BBL Esports47c2,758$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,299.8815337.9%58 W · 95 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked BBL Esports40c2,717$1,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,091.6694361.2%577 W · 366 L+58.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked BBL Esports57c2,627$1,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,507.5615443.5%67 W · 87 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked BBL Esports42c2,323$970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$969.7278862.8%495 W · 293 L+56.6wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+7.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf2bb…3250backed BBL Esports43c1,860$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8003053.3%16 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa514…9c8fbacked BBL Esports43c1,860$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8001752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Fire Flux Esports61c1,799$1,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$700.851,61437.5%605 W · 1,009 L-75.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-27%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe415…0445backed BBL Esports61c1,757$1,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,067.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x65fe…c200backed Fire Flux Esports66c1,516$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.511163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked BBL Esports45c1,471$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.8268658.3%400 W · 286 L+56.4wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xceae…8e45backed Fire Flux Esports42c1,464$622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841.921656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+21.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed BBL Esports40c1,457$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.8453359.3%316 W · 217 L+42.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+7.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x59cb…57d1backed BBL Esports59c1,356$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8005151%26 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cf7…8c87backed BBL Esports44c1,160$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.3250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb1…aebabacked Fire Flux Esports42c1,150$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.895044%22 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9973…bd7fbacked Fire Flux Esports55c1,124$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.792958.6%17 W · 12 L+5.7wins+0.20per pick39cpaid+53.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Fire Flux Esports41c1,111$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$655.498154.3%44 W · 37 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Fire Flux Esports41c1,111$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$655.4918744.9%84 W · 103 L-0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Fire Flux Esports60c1,094$658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.541,37039%534 W · 836 L-59.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-17.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Fire Flux Esports41c1,015$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600.4327746.2%128 W · 149 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Fire Flux Esports66c915.99$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.6765759.4%390 W · 267 L+50.3wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc8ad…be4ebacked BBL Esports58c899.99$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.9921155.5%117 W · 94 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+17.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd75a…d264backed Fire Flux Esports67c886$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.256930.4%21 W · 48 L-5.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-33.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6bd5…81b0backed BBL Esports56c862.28$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.071612.5%2 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.16per pick28cpaid-65.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x41bb…26e8backed BBL Esports60c822$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4933450%17 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Fire Flux Esports53c808.17$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.1839751.1%203 W · 194 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb185…98cdbacked BBL Esports37c754.33$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.192937.9%11 W · 18 L-4.3wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-33.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked BBL Esports26c751$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.951744.7%231 W · 286 L-10.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Fire Flux Esports50c550$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.5190244.3%400 W · 502 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed BBL Esports60c527.48$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.0147446.8%222 W · 252 L-0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked BBL Esports43c512.86$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.6639348.1%189 W · 204 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x86df…d902backed BBL Esports53c499.89$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.6213456%75 W · 59 L+7.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Fire Flux Esports64c464.76$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.7454055.4%299 W · 241 L+24.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x015f…d051backed BBL Esports44c454.55$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002250%11 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed BBL Esports59c438.32$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.6156551.2%289 W · 276 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c76…fcc2backed BBL Esports39c434.92$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.09333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8637…0c86backed BBL Esports48c419.44$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b16…9f80backed Fire Flux Esports64c406.32$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.2618561.1%113 W · 72 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x277b…31fabacked Fire Flux Esports58c403.73$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.734953.1%26 W · 23 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb797…e779backed BBL Esports52c400$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.9560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+32.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f5b…2501backed BBL Esports50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001414.3%2 W · 12 L-4.5wins-0.32per pick46cpaid-69.5%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xe7b8…31e6backed BBL Esports59c383.09$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.8536546%168 W · 197 L+24.1wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8a3b…5fa5backed Fire Flux Esports66c378.79$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.7923964%153 W · 86 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x333d…e8b7backed BBL Esports58c370$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.6728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick43cpaid+31.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d7e…2ef7backed BBL Esports60c353.48$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.641369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc444…416cbacked BBL Esports57c350.88$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003554.3%19 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Fire Flux Esports61c348.33$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.851,28432.1%412 W · 872 L-67.8wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe8fe…211ebacked BBL Esports39c328.51$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.37825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-31.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbf3…aa3abacked BBL Esports62c322.54$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe8b…2bacbacked BBL Esports50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick40cpaid+118.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc104…e684backed BBL Esports35c300$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.51346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7eeb…b6bdbacked BBL Esports37c294$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.446634.8%23 W · 43 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed BBL Esports42c292.31$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.861,50346.5%699 W · 804 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed BBL Esports45c289.53$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.1793848%450 W · 488 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Fire Flux Esports42c256.78$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.7594349.5%467 W · 476 L+0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked BBL Esports39c254.95$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.211,31843.9%578 W · 740 L-44.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed BBL Esports40c251$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0619740.1%79 W · 118 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked BBL Esports41c247.24$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.211,61945.1%730 W · 889 L-25.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-22.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe32a…cd33backed BBL Esports58c217.19$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.9743859.1%259 W · 179 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0844…bf81backed BBL Esports59c203.39$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12028056.4%158 W · 122 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Fire Flux Esports40c201$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.629342.3%124 W · 169 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fcc…9f91backed BBL Esports25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060822.9%139 W · 469 L-25.9wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-36.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4575…3a3fbacked BBL Esports36c199.67$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.142245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cb5…819abacked BBL Esports34c196.34$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.974450%22 W · 22 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed BBL Esports36c194$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.8466638%253 W · 413 L-32.3wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-22.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd9e9…2a7fbacked BBL Esports37c191.98$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.0340%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fb1…b109backed Fire Flux Esports46c187.65$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.0318254.4%99 W · 83 L+22.3wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+27.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5a97…7a1bbacked BBL Esports59c183.76$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.423375.8%25 W · 8 L+4.9wins+0.15per pick61cpaid+22%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6c64…89babacked BBL Esports32c180$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.67153.5%38 W · 33 L+5.9wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+13.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1747…4afcbacked BBL Esports36c170.71$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.611845.8%54 W · 64 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc0c…dac0backed Fire Flux Esports68c170.17$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.458881.8%72 W · 16 L+11.1wins+0.13per pick69cpaid+19%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8849…9a83backed BBL Esports59c169.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10021454.2%116 W · 98 L+0.8wins0.00per pick54cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebf5…b1d0backed BBL Esports39c168.98$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.4415352.9%81 W · 72 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d25…0f79backed BBL Esports57c167.53$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$952176.2%16 W · 5 L+5.3wins+0.25per pick51cpaid+60.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x5439…c45bbacked Fire Flux Esports65c161.46$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.465100%5 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+38.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7585…dcb3backed BBL Esports40c161$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.4560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+21%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5008…9466backed BBL Esports45c159.73$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.164736.2%17 W · 30 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-34%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f9b…df54backed Fire Flux Esports63c158.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.736141%25 W · 36 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4011…4a39backed BBL Esports50c151.47$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753823.7%9 W · 29 L-7.6wins-0.20per pick44cpaid-51.4%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xfb67…fd46backed BBL Esports31c150$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464250%21 W · 21 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe97…361ebacked BBL Esports58c148.79$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.33161.3%19 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick69cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Fire Flux Esports54c138.77$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.2597445.1%439 W · 535 L-19.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2489…463bbacked BBL Esports59c135.59$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+84.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xde5e…9a9bbacked Fire Flux Esports46c130$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+35.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e82…4cfbbacked BBL Esports64c126.56$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf33…0353backed BBL Esports43c126.22$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.5933946.3%157 W · 182 L-11.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf836…e7b5backed Fire Flux Esports41c111.09$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.551369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick49cpaid+38.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed BBL Esports56c108.7$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.2141346.5%192 W · 221 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked BBL Esports36c108.28$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.771,38647.3%655 W · 731 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf61…f9e2backed Fire Flux Esports47c107.45$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.451250%6 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+19%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4cd…c041backed BBL Esports59c107.11$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.562060%12 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+22.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x20d7…2485backed BBL Esports37c107.09$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.284814.6%7 W · 41 L-6.4wins-0.13per pick28cpaid-57.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.