TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Howard Bison vs. Drexel Dragons

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Howard Bisonof Howard Bison, Drexel Dragons
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$214,630
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$277,258

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $214,630 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 198 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc3c3…eec8backed Howard Bison32c15,000$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,2001241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Drexel Dragons68c14,769$10,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,042.927237.5%27 W · 45 L-6.8wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-26%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa9e6…025bbacked Howard Bison35c14,406$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,405.74666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+39.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Drexel Dragons43c11,348$4,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,889.12,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Drexel Dragons68c10,391$7,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,076.1312,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cb…28adbacked Howard Bison77c8,784$6,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,003.025945.8%27 W · 32 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-18.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc9df…249ebacked Drexel Dragons52c8,410$4,383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,383.23333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Drexel Dragons22c7,841$1,739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,739.45,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Howard Bison76c5,906$4,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,419.461,54041.3%636 W · 904 L+4.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Drexel Dragons35c5,735$2,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,028.781,17325.2%296 W · 877 L-43.0wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-21.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Drexel Dragons1c5,705$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.0520548.8%100 W · 105 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+35.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Drexel Dragons68c5,000$3,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,4005160.8%31 W · 20 L+6.9wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+32.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xad1b…5da0backed Howard Bison42c4,947$2,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,864.072100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+89.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5572…984ebacked Drexel Dragons13c4,102$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Howard Bison66c3,918$2,594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,323.742,25442.2%951 W · 1,303 L+3.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdddc…ced2backed Howard Bison32c3,287$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,237.797839.7%31 W · 47 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Howard Bison59c2,895$1,712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,182.65,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Drexel Dragons68c2,780$1,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,902.2355657.4%319 W · 237 L+20.3wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f20…0360backed Howard Bison30c2,600$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,820366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick27cpaid+117.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Howard Bison74c2,540$1,869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$670.491,95145.1%880 W · 1,071 L-19.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7376…4f46backed Howard Bison30c2,300$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,610540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+31.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Drexel Dragons69c2,299$1,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,586.1817650.6%89 W · 87 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcff1…1e74backed Howard Bison30c2,100$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,470366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+53.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1fe…98a5backed Howard Bison30c2,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,400580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+52.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4a3…0848backed Howard Bison50c1,981$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$990.792100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+98.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa07c…11a0backed Howard Bison69c1,961$1,351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.97366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa229…576ebacked Howard Bison78c1,634$1,274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.89250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf704…bed4backed Howard Bison32c1,500$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,020977.8%7 W · 2 L+3.1wins+0.34per pick44cpaid+78.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc89d…5909backed Drexel Dragons69c1,500$1,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0352839.3%11 W · 17 L-3.3wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-30.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7ad3…4144backed Drexel Dragons70c1,400$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick73cpaid-57.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Drexel Dragons70c1,395$975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$974.92,57947.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L-42.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Drexel Dragons67c1,395$938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$938.414,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3792…3f75backed Drexel Dragons70c1,300$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$910333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick73cpaid-57.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Drexel Dragons70c1,284$893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$892.961,39144.1%613 W · 778 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a56…bb5dbacked Drexel Dragons24c1,258$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c1b…89d0backed Drexel Dragons70c1,200$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$840333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick67cpaid-45.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbade…84b8backed Drexel Dragons70c1,200$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$840425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick63cpaid-68.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf27b…39edbacked Howard Bison30c1,200$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$840366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+65.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Howard Bison50c1,147$569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.591,88745.2%853 W · 1,034 L+6.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Howard Bison77c1,102$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.541631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x38fa…87b5backed Drexel Dragons24c1,059$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.4914027.1%38 W · 102 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Drexel Dragons68c1,056$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715.5221646.8%101 W · 115 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Howard Bison30c1,050$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73510511.4%12 W · 93 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-51.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe3e…7909backed Drexel Dragons70c1,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.39per pick63cpaid-68.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x84db…0c28backed Drexel Dragons70c1,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.39per pick64cpaid-68.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Drexel Dragons70c935.98$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655.1916341.7%68 W · 95 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf7d…c233backed Drexel Dragons70c900$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick67cpaid-45.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa2c0…69d0backed Drexel Dragons22c865.9$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.36538.5%25 W · 40 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Drexel Dragons24c842.28$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.6645644.5%203 W · 253 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-19.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Drexel Dragons65c824.15$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.9149746.5%231 W · 266 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb984…03febacked Drexel Dragons70c800$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c4c…913fbacked Drexel Dragons70c800$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick73cpaid-57.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d55…7cbabacked Drexel Dragons23c749.99$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1757149.3%35 W · 36 L+19.3wins+0.27per pick22cpaid+92.7%equal weight72+0.20 edge/pick
0x2a5f…3670backed Howard Bison31c700$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick16cpaid-75.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85b9…d1abbacked Howard Bison69c699.99$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-83.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b07…de95backed Howard Bison71c698.12$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.21520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-72%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6684…95d1backed Howard Bison74c673.96$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.31450%7 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-23%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee14…8055backed Drexel Dragons22c646.5$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.827758.4%45 W · 32 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb29…358ebacked Howard Bison80c603.24$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.242556%14 W · 11 L-3.4wins-0.14per pick70cpaid-24.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x172a…6502backed Drexel Dragons70c600$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-28.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Drexel Dragons25c548.37$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.783,68442.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L+32.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb428…13bfbacked Drexel Dragons60c500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-32.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a4e…3309backed Howard Bison45c445.64$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.645735.1%20 W · 37 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5942…5641backed Drexel Dragons68c430.33$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.0332337.2%120 W · 203 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe11e…f190backed Howard Bison74c410.89$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Howard Bison28c400$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28829444.6%131 W · 163 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd397…5052backed Drexel Dragons72c392.93$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28310757.9%62 W · 45 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f61…9131backed Howard Bison71c364.12$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1051136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-30.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa1a…d9abbacked Howard Bison33c361.85$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.85850%4 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+66.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6878…bec2backed Howard Bison75c352.72$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.851844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59c4…7b48backed Drexel Dragons25c321.4$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2159…114fbacked Drexel Dragons69c300$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Drexel Dragons66c299.33$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.561,48743%639 W · 848 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0bd3…c066backed Drexel Dragons61c289.99$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.481258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6809…b188backed Drexel Dragons69c289.86$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002962.1%18 W · 11 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick72cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb3ab…ff0cbacked Drexel Dragons71c281.69$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick63cpaid-45.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Drexel Dragons68c274.72$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.8152928.4%150 W · 379 L-9.2wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e2e…b5a5backed Howard Bison72c263.2$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.112100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x004e…90f8backed Howard Bison74c262.16$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.1619237%71 W · 121 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x033e…1bb9backed Howard Bison51c260.78$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5131…ff70backed Drexel Dragons42c258.65$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42bf…30f7backed Howard Bison33c256.46$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.131030%3 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Drexel Dragons70c250$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17534947.9%167 W · 182 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e88…f3c9backed Howard Bison41c246.26$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.269729.9%29 W · 68 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb7d…d9dfbacked Howard Bison77c242.43$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Drexel Dragons35c231$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.331,53150.1%767 W · 764 L+34.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Drexel Dragons15c215.25$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3323941.4%99 W · 140 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Howard Bison61c209.44$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.3510037%37 W · 63 L-8.6wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-30.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4862…1a17backed Howard Bison60c200.62$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.81833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-33.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d1e…d5dfbacked Drexel Dragons50c200.37$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.172227.3%6 W · 16 L-3.9wins-0.18per pick45cpaid-45.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe14b…1ad3backed Howard Bison55c199.99$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.28per pick58cpaid+40%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe6f0…5701backed Drexel Dragons25c199.96$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9936942.3%156 W · 213 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bf2…24d7backed Drexel Dragons30c197.87$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.273429.4%10 W · 24 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-27.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd2dd…ea96backed Drexel Dragons29c188.78$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.12556%14 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa99f…9c1ebacked Drexel Dragons9c178.86$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.13511.4%4 W · 31 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+28.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb47b…c6b1backed Howard Bison65c177.65$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623964.1%25 W · 14 L+4.9wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+25.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x3e5b…0324backed Howard Bison59c177.65$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.18366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf802…d91dbacked Drexel Dragons37c175.26$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.592070%14 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+26.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Howard Bison62c171.57$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.2931837.7%120 W · 198 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-26.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc4f…5c00backed Drexel Dragons69c165.59$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.261060%6 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.