IPO · resolved market
Will ITG's market cap be between $2.1B and $2.7B at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96ec7719173f4bef942e62dac9f5cbabd94d835b55ee200c8545eb7e01df342b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked Yes | 38c | 949.06$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.23 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 30c | 836.74$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.45 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 52c | 672.48$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.53 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…0359backed No | 48c | 433.85$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54fd…4ac3backed Yes | 77c | 274.39$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.19 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34b0…d620backed Yes | 43c | 226.9$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.3 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bef…3b06backed No | 62c | 221.38$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.02 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 42c | 218.85$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.23 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 63c | 200$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 43c | 165$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 60c | 146.88$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.85 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 64c | 119.97$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.96 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x15e1…1b3dbacked No | 68c | 110$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 47c | 105$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 104$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.19 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -16.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 42c | 92.43$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.47 | 92 | 15.2%14 W · 78 L | -16.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed No | 58c | 77.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2415…c70bbacked Yes | 34c | 70.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 72c | 68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.63 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 16c | 65.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 60c | 65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2057…0629backed No | 63c | 60.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 77c | 58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.59 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 63 | 27%17 W · 46 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…db62backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 64c | 48.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 73c | 42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 57c | 41.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc759…b965backed Yes | 36c | 40.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 65c | 40.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 34c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 61c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x734b…2a2cbacked No | 71c | 29.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed3a…3047backed Yes | 42c | 26.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 63c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 45c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 49cpaid | +108.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -48%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x239f…8b82backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ITG's market cap be between $2.1B and $2.7B at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will ITG not IPO before September 2026?No won
- Will ITG's market cap be between $2.7B and $3.3B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will ITG's market cap be between $3.9B and $4.5B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will ITG's market cap be less than $2.1B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.