Earnings · resolved market
Will Etsy (ETSY) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x975eff2e5535e055fb19f8ae513cd0d7a30f676a8d9726b276189e1d4478789f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,702
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,526
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,702 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8c94…816fbacked No | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…4449backed No | 3c | 842.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dff…1f35backed No | 57c | 784.23$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +91.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x470d…b463backed No | 41c | 400$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.58 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…9a71backed Yes | 42c | 365.95$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.38 | 21 | 95.2%20 W · 1 L | +6.7wins | +0.32per pick | 63cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 22c | 253.98$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.1 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 19c | 236.2$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 37c | 224.9$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.84 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 66c | 202.26$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.27 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9240…a7c7backed No | 75c | 200.42$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.1 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 67c | 191.61$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.16 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba51…ff35backed No | 71c | 190$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.7 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 67c | 181.01$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.36 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa2…9593backed Yes | 34c | 180.63$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.72 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 46c | 173.28$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.69 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ac…2d85backed Yes | 33c | 172.41$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.51 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10bb…d49dbacked Yes | 45c | 159.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.8 | 102 | 72.5%74 W · 28 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd7a…ca4dbacked No | 77c | 157.43$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…83e3backed Yes | 33c | 130$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.1 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed Yes | 28c | 128.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.98 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7057…ae0abacked No | 78c | 127.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47a6…65e8backed Yes | 32c | 109.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.79 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 107 | 60.7%65 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed4…a52abacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed No | 66c | 99.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 122 | 64.8%79 W · 43 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes | 27c | 97.34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee6b…8486backed Yes | 26c | 95.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.79 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes | 32c | 92.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.63 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | +14.8wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…78e9backed Yes | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.59 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 62c | 92.11$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.11 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked Yes | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…a303backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38d5…063cbacked Yes | 48c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.9 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0264…91acbacked No | 73c | 64.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.65 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 54cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee17…6ea1backed Yes | 35c | 64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x751d…daeebacked Yes | 26c | 59.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3857…6605backed Yes | 30c | 59.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.42 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes | 34c | 58.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.97 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e96…633fbacked No | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 29c | 54.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.77 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…c502backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 23c | 52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 66c | 50.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e3…cda8backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eaa…721bbacked Yes | 34c | 49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 54c | 46.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 51c | 46.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | -18.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…696bbacked Yes | 42c | 35.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…8fa9backed Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 155 | 30.3%47 W · 108 L | -20.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5d62…fc71backed Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 40 | 87.5%35 W · 5 L | +7.6wins | +0.19per pick | 68cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb0…6167backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4666…36d5backed No | 73c | 27.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d51…5ee3backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 72c | 22.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a5…2f2cbacked No | 67c | 20.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…5d91backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72e0…3bc0backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb283…7019backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.