TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will RB Leipzig vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$186,827
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$192,349

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $186,827 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 165 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa8bd…b7aabacked No80c36,186$28,949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,948.810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d36…68fdbacked Yes49c31,110$15,398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,711.91616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.33per pick50cpaid-66.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No39c16,367$6,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,436.572,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No62c15,482$9,528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,527.6275142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes26c11,758$3,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,745.653,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes20c10,810$2,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,648.6569851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d3a…64b7backed Yes20c10,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,000450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+77.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes20c9,300$1,859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,441.441,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed No42c8,847$3,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,749.931,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes20c4,997$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,997.5216652.4%87 W · 79 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No60c3,831$2,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,311.721,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e4…bc51backed Yes34c3,681$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,430.56837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8db…ccfbbacked No80c3,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4002055%11 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5184…1a68backed No26c2,810$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Yes20c2,707$541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,165.610154.5%55 W · 46 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0df…8f41backed No76c2,645$2,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,016.446167.2%41 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x11e1…4cc0backed Yes76c2,624$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.39366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No52c1,436$751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.1933737.4%126 W · 211 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed No5c1,411$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.1222332.3%72 W · 151 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d21…abc5backed Yes33c1,352$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$905.523429.4%10 W · 24 L-5.0wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-36.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7250…f52fbacked Yes20c1,200$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9605425.9%14 W · 40 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x24a5…5d07backed Yes29c1,114$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$791.59520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-30.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb31e…c120backed No80c1,100$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880771.4%5 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick76cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…7be6backed Yes20c1,000$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8001952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+18.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a2…9874backed Yes26c761.61$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561.616344.4%28 W · 35 L+9.8wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+50.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2c1a…5cb0backed Yes28c675.36$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes25c590.64$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.644129.3%12 W · 29 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick24cpaid+36.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed No57c568.49$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.8924541.6%102 W · 143 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc83…215cbacked Yes29c546.19$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.861566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+17.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x617f…cde5backed Yes75c541.44$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.36540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-29.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Yes27c529.54$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.8376234.8%265 W · 497 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86f4…40d5backed No80c500$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4006256.5%35 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x250b…9cb5backed Yes20c500$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick26cpaid+190.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1871…59e6backed Yes65c500$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17310251%52 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Yes20c500$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4007967.1%53 W · 26 L+7.4wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+17.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf438…de5dbacked Yes20c500$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4001942.1%8 W · 11 L+3.3wins+0.17per pick25cpaid+126.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2759…2b38backed Yes24c487.33$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.673132.3%10 W · 21 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick24cpaid+26.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x73c1…1eaebacked Yes29c417.21$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.19425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46e6…d4cdbacked No72c409.57$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.891233.3%4 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-26.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd147…ecbdbacked Yes32c406.48$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.487646.1%35 W · 41 L+8.9wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+33.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Yes36c370$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.446553.8%35 W · 30 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc686…5a55backed Yes31c365.69$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.6924132%77 W · 164 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed No69c347.77$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.4544655.4%247 W · 199 L+22.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9ba…e6b7backed Yes29c344.83$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75bd…0288backed Yes28c335.97$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.999646.9%45 W · 51 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+17.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2085…dd27backed Yes30c333.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.331323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-35.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe071…f836backed Yes60c326.65$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.6310057%57 W · 43 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Yes37c311$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.071668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+26.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x15d7…a861backed Yes33c303.03$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.033432.4%11 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc2b…d830backed Yes32c300$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2041844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a8e…b505backed No60c286.02$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.993056.7%17 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc918…f848backed Yes75c266.8$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.82100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xace9…f74abacked Yes77c259.74$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.741952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d83…8eb4backed No68c255.29$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8549…41f8backed Yes29c255$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.054037.5%15 W · 25 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+16%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbddd…3d9abacked Yes29c254.81$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.922475%18 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+24.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe706…89bcbacked Yes20c250$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20011843.2%51 W · 67 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2452…4571backed Yes28c250$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+38.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed No44c250$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.0111644%51 W · 65 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No34c246.45$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.557335.6%26 W · 47 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+26.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Yes38c245$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.13554.3%19 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No69c241$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.8649143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa36c…5754backed Yes45c222.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.222100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+91.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f6b…075fbacked Yes73c199.99$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549951.5%51 W · 48 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4867…2130backed Yes25c188$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+100%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8e6…d96bbacked Yes24c185$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.68243.9%36 W · 46 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb224…dfa6backed Yes20c157.4$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.92366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick26cpaid+159.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c8f…d581backed Yes33c151.52$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.527338.4%28 W · 45 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Yes20c150$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1205752.6%30 W · 27 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0719…8413backed Yes72c139.03$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe575…8b12backed Yes33c138.62$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.42250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+53.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed Yes29c138.28$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.286129.5%18 W · 43 L-7.1wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc3d0…6fc8backed No73c136.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7a33…237dbacked Yes73c136.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.993351.5%17 W · 16 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf95a…d895backed Yes23c127.31$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.031241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+28.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc2d9…f193backed Yes28c126.79$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.792540%10 W · 15 L+4.1wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+58.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked No80c125$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10037344.5%166 W · 207 L-15.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa072…9e34backed No42c120$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.85446.3%25 W · 29 L+5.2wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+29.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No32c117.4$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.138151.4%196 W · 185 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No10c110.21$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9228241.5%117 W · 165 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a63…b752backed Yes48c110$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.21650%8 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x38c4…7c65backed No73c107.99$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.374555.6%25 W · 20 L-6.3wins-0.14per pick70cpaid-21.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1d3d…189dbacked Yes29c103.45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.451070%7 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+42.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3590…68f1backed Yes49c102.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.042445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xab08…37fabacked Yes30c100.61$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.611464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick45cpaid+24%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed No46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463658.3%21 W · 15 L+5.2wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+58.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf2ba…4028backed Yes25c100$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.1938845.6%177 W · 211 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd257…d215backed Yes29c100$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$718517.6%15 W · 70 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x61ce…21ebbacked No73c100$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73887.5%7 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick76cpaid+14%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f84…67efbacked Yes27c100$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7314726.5%39 W · 108 L-0.5wins0.00per pick27cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6f0…5701backed No50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502025%5 W · 15 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-38.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5b35…12b3backed Yes20c100$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$802948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2590…e38ebacked No14c99.35$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.91300%0 W · 30 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9135…a63ebacked Yes33c90$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.3757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf5a…bf0abacked Yes69c87.56$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.561060%6 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-18.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbaa2…1973backed Yes29c86.21$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.215032%16 W · 34 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-30.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5acf…0df2backed No58c85.96$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.98520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-63%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xecc6…a1c4backed Yes30c82.97$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.971643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d31…70f5backed Yes73c82.21$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3036…15c2backed Yes25c80$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608251.2%42 W · 40 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.