NBA · resolved market
Spread: Hornets (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97ffe6be424855bd84c294c8fc9a8228cabb68b1270b91a91d69f35dc7392cbc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hornetsof Hornets, Jazz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,187
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,748
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,187 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Jazz | 42c | 7,442$3,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,131.39 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9315…a744backed Hornets | 57c | 6,000$3,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,580 | 67 | 67.2%45 W · 22 L | +10.7wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x00f4…df59backed Jazz | 43c | 6,000$2,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,580 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Hornets | 58c | 4,167$2,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,750.23 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hornets | 57c | 2,558$1,458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,099.59 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6177…86e0backed Jazz | 42c | 1,190$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.79 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Hornets | 59c | 1,129$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.81 | 476 | 51.7%246 W · 230 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Hornets | 58c | 1,100$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb1…cc29backed Hornets | 57c | 999.95$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.98 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Jazz | 42c | 646.38$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.75 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Jazz | 39c | 637$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.43 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Jazz | 43c | 525$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.75 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41a3…017dbacked Hornets | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 329 | 52.9%174 W · 155 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Hornets | 61c | 309.13$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.56 | 641 | 39%250 W · 391 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Jazz | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 403 | 46.2%186 W · 217 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Hornets | 58c | 248.21$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.66 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdd…23d8backed Hornets | 58c | 235.88$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.07 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c19…3ec0backed Hornets | 57c | 190$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.7 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Hornets | 61c | 120$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 701 | 53.5%375 W · 326 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Jazz | 42c | 67.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f7…0899backed Hornets | 58c | 60.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Hornets | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 331 | 47.4%157 W · 174 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca6d…492bbacked Hornets | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…76e9backed Jazz | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Hornets | 59c | 53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Hornets | 58c | 52.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…cb14backed Hornets | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f78…bfcabacked Jazz | 43c | 50.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 127 | 27.6%35 W · 92 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Hornets | 58c | 46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…f083backed Hornets | 59c | 38.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Jazz | 43c | 37.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 509 | 48.5%247 W · 262 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70df…bca8backed Jazz | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6de0…af02backed Hornets | 58c | 23.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…b85fbacked Hornets | 59c | 19.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hornets (-2.5)this page
- Hornets vs. JazzHornets won
- Hornets vs. Jazz: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Hornets vs. Jazz: O/U 235.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Jazz: O/U 236.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Jazz: O/U 237.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Jazz: O/U 238.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Jazz: O/U 239.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Jazz: O/U 240.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Jazz: O/U 241.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Jazz: O/U 243.5Over won
- Spread: Hornets (-3.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-4.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-5.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.