NBA · resolved market
Hornets vs. Jazz: O/U 239.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb332caaff091d5089903484bde785a28b24561dd7aecc73b8a23d990605da35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,539
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,471
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,539 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 9,568$4,935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,934.81 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Under | 55c | 6,325$3,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,478.73 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked Over | 45c | 5,027$2,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,764.59 | 203 | 52.2%106 W · 97 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 48c | 4,634$2,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,429.49 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 49c | 4,082$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,081.63 | 478 | 56.7%271 W · 207 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 52c | 3,432$1,798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,634.05 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1748…a816backed Over | 46c | 2,283$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,232.61 | 173 | 44.5%77 W · 96 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 53c | 1,932$1,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$908.04 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Under | 46c | 1,600$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736 | 112 | 42%47 W · 65 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 50c | 1,369$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.5 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 54c | 1,300$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Under | 47c | 1,090$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.4 | 221 | 38%84 W · 137 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x713d…53a9backed Under | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 181 | 51.4%93 W · 88 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…5a3fbacked Over | 51c | 751$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.99 | 199 | 58.3%116 W · 83 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 47c | 612.72$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.13 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Under | 53c | 407$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.71 | 543 | 51.6%280 W · 263 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 46c | 400$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked Under | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 245 | 56.3%138 W · 107 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 54c | 263.04$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.04 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 52c | 189$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.28 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 48c | 167$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.43 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 51c | 150.98$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 52c | 118$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.32 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Under | 52c | 96.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeed5…339ebacked Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 46c | 85$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42bf…30f7backed Under | 46c | 66.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeed8…996dbacked Under | 52c | 58.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 50c | 57.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Under | 46c | 55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97b8…0f5dbacked Under | 46c | 49.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbce1…5555backed Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c1…88a3backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0548…9e1cbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…aca7backed Over | 52c | 38.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -11.5wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Over | 50c | 36.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 43c | 33.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…d390backed Under | 61c | 23.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 207 | 62.3%129 W · 78 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked Over | 45c | 23.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 522 | 46.6%243 W · 279 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae8…c2a8backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hornets vs. Jazz: O/U 239.5this page
- Hornets vs. JazzHornets won
- Hornets vs. Jazz: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Hornets vs. Jazz: O/U 235.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Jazz: O/U 236.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Jazz: O/U 237.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Jazz: O/U 238.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Jazz: O/U 240.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Jazz: O/U 241.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Jazz: O/U 243.5Over won
- Spread: Hornets (-2.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-3.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-4.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-5.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.