NBA · resolved market
Spread: Hornets (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41efd6300a8c420309193e6c64eec6a147b32b7fbcffac55063b7306f6665068
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hornetsof Hornets, Jazz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,784
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,082
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,784 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Hornets | 51c | 10,000$5,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,890.02 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Jazz | 46c | 9,000$4,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,139.98 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Jazz | 46c | 7,585$3,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,477.17 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Hornets | 54c | 6,000$3,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,759.99 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Jazz | 48c | 5,694$2,707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,707.36 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Hornets | 51c | 5,321$2,737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,583.58 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Hornets | 52c | 4,781$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,280.77 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Hornets | 55c | 4,434$2,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,995.31 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Jazz | 47c | 3,258$1,516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,515.59 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Jazz | 40c | 2,908$1,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,176.56 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45d…b413backed Hornets | 54c | 2,685$1,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,235.19 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hornets | 54c | 2,611$1,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,208.68 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Jazz | 47c | 2,191$1,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,028.36 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Jazz | 48c | 2,063$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.51 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Jazz | 44c | 1,955$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.05 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7973…34d4backed Jazz | 49c | 1,482$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -6.4wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Jazz | 47c | 1,379$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.13 | 346 | 54%187 W · 159 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed Hornets | 54c | 1,297$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.62 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Jazz | 45c | 1,225$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.05 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Hornets | 53c | 1,108$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.87 | 1,048 | 41.1%431 W · 617 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…e89abacked Jazz | 46c | 1,087$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Jazz | 47c | 1,055$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.77 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Jazz | 46c | 1,011$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.06 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…2d1abacked Hornets | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 489 | 57.5%281 W · 208 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…97fdbacked Hornets | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.93 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Hornets | 52c | 900$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432 | 910 | 50.9%463 W · 447 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Jazz | 49c | 816.33$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 672 | 52.7%354 W · 318 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x561b…837ebacked Hornets | 51c | 789.98$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.09 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Jazz | 44c | 720$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.2 | 221 | 38%84 W · 137 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Jazz | 48c | 675.94$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.45 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Jazz | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 492 | 46.3%228 W · 264 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Jazz | 46c | 559$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.14 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Jazz | 46c | 500$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Jazz | 48c | 472.9$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.99 | 232 | 50.4%117 W · 115 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7448…b4cfbacked Jazz | 48c | 430$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.4 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f40…92b2backed Jazz | 48c | 360$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.8 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Jazz | 49c | 260$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.4 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ae…bf54backed Hornets | 53c | 250$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 160 | 53.1%85 W · 75 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Jazz | 46c | 205$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.3 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Hornets | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 641 | 39%250 W · 391 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7802…d5b4backed Hornets | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Jazz | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 129 | 47.3%61 W · 68 L | +12.3wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Jazz | 46c | 199.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.99 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed Hornets | 52c | 195.61$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.38 | 762 | 50.4%384 W · 378 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Jazz | 46c | 175$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.25 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51e1…c98abacked Jazz | 46c | 147.83$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Hornets | 52c | 129.04$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.94 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Jazz | 46c | 101.21$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.74 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Jazz | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x265b…74dfbacked Jazz | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Jazz | 12c | 95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc6…314abacked Jazz | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Jazz | 46c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Hornets | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d90…cf08backed Jazz | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 199 | 40.7%81 W · 118 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…76e9backed Jazz | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Jazz | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 479 | 48.6%233 W · 246 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Jazz | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 421 | 43.7%184 W · 237 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Jazz | 49c | 48.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f02…c594backed Hornets | 53c | 45.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd2…e8e8backed Jazz | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97b8…0f5dbacked Jazz | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…b85fbacked Jazz | 49c | 43.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ea…52dbbacked Jazz | 47c | 41.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Jazz | 47c | 40.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 661 | 43.4%287 W · 374 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x909b…6a0dbacked Jazz | 48c | 39.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…6542backed Hornets | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 564 | 54.3%306 W · 258 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe42d…62febacked Jazz | 49c | 37.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Hornets | 54c | 37.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…259dbacked Jazz | 49c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc084…a34fbacked Hornets | 54c | 33.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Jazz | 46c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Hornets | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…071abacked Hornets | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Jazz | 47c | 26.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 806 | 53.6%432 W · 374 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed Jazz | 48c | 23.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 222 | 47.3%105 W · 117 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Jazz | 48c | 22.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 509 | 48.5%247 W · 262 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Jazz | 46c | 21.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89a4…5f78backed Hornets | 53c | 21.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hornets (-4.5)this page
- Hornets vs. JazzHornets won
- Hornets vs. Jazz: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Hornets vs. Jazz: O/U 235.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Jazz: O/U 236.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Jazz: O/U 237.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Jazz: O/U 238.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Jazz: O/U 239.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Jazz: O/U 240.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Jazz: O/U 241.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Jazz: O/U 243.5Over won
- Spread: Hornets (-2.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-3.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-5.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.