Stocks · resolved market
Will Netflix reach $105 in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98438bcba04f402cc4911c7847976f69ca1a1774dea9dbd2be02b0b1e3088ba9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,434
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,698
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,434 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed No | 46c | 2,978$1,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,607.49 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 55c | 1,929$1,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$869.24 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ccd…6e3cbacked Yes | 54c | 1,545$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Yes | 51c | 1,062$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.4 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 47c | 654$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.53 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 49c | 571.53$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.3 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbeb…5ff3backed Yes | 15c | 512.6$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdec…ba9bbacked Yes | 17c | 500$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 48c | 483.69$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.52 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 55c | 400$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1985…8cbdbacked No | 54c | 395.7$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.89 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.24per pick | 40cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c7…92f8backed No | 75c | 370.24$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882a…cde2backed Yes | 47c | 361.86$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.07 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed Yes | 52c | 360$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93ef…468bbacked No | 56c | 300$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0327…5e15backed Yes | 39c | 270.08$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.21 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37a0…ec34backed Yes | 44c | 267.76$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…7eabbacked No | 45c | 216.59$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.33 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 45c | 200$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 51c | 183.94$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.19 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed No | 55c | 161.81$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.16 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x294e…b019backed Yes | 42c | 155.21$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd399…d13ebacked No | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f9…78ecbacked Yes | 51c | 135.07$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa575…f2d0backed No | 53c | 133.82$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.17 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 127.84$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.81 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 36c | 121.8$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.91 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 46c | 110$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0006…2cafbacked No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…0f16backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…8b8ebacked Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf441…1f0ebacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4059…3371backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710f…09a6backed No | 62c | 98$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 15c | 97.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19a7…962ebacked No | 62c | 96.77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc3…384ebacked Yes | 26c | 85.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed No | 54c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee0d…3343backed Yes | 54c | 80$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…f9f6backed No | 47c | 77.15$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.89 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Yes | 28c | 64.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf68…ae5cbacked Yes | 22c | 62.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90b9…1951backed No | 52c | 62.19$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x336f…c31ebacked No | 45c | 58.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0426…4b7dbacked Yes | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x359c…3163backed No | 56c | 55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 55c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 52c | 54.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c61…59b9backed Yes | 53c | 45.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc245…bccbbacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b69…42cfbacked Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3629…4be1backed Yes | 38c | 39.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf811…69babacked Yes | 43c | 39.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe182…b624backed No | 55c | 39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f79…e33ebacked Yes | 42c | 37.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe634…fae1backed Yes | 51c | 35.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -46%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…af18backed Yes | 38c | 32.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.29per pick | 52cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 54c | 31.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 50c | 27.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 78c | 23.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 86 | 23.3%20 W · 66 L | -8.8wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xffb1…b639backed No | 48c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3240…5d25backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +45%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe647…f3b4backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Netflix reach $105 in March?this page
- Will Netflix dip to $35 in March?No won
- Will Netflix dip to $70 in March?No won
- Will Netflix reach $228 in March?No won
- Will Netflix reach $298 in March?No won
- Will Netflix reach $368 in March?No won
- Will Netflix reach $455 in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.