Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99b2b94c596f90b2be741f53537bbd6d34783bbd8a7e40c8231f499576d6ccda
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,255
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,736
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,255 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed Yes | 1c | 10,310$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 149 | 34.2%51 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed Yes | 13c | 2,307$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.91 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 41c | 2,027$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.09 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 15c | 1,924$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.68 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,909$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.99 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 31c | 1,013$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.38 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0f…b951backed No | 66c | 1,000$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.13 | 49 | 83.7%41 W · 8 L | +13.2wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 620.7$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.65 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 43c | 593.02$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 70c | 460.91$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.55 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 62c | 383.93$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.19 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 80c | 347.54$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.82 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 14c | 346.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 63c | 328.05$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.28 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 308.97$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.19 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 276.77$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.71 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 27c | 231.29$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.57 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 69c | 218.2$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.04 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 26c | 215.62$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 30c | 211.03$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.75 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 65c | 197.91$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.16 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 43c | 196.37$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.44 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 71c | 186.48$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.24 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 181.05$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.4 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 37c | 178.51$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.25 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 28c | 178.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c16…d262backed No | 15c | 172.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.29 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 36c | 170.61$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.42 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 65c | 168.87$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.1 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 54c | 150$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.5 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 66c | 147.99$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.83 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 136.81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.74 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 35c | 134.4$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77e5…ac0fbacked Yes | 72c | 121.03$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…bf7bbacked Yes | 76c | 103.84$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.43 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 63c | 101.85$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.68 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 76c | 87$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 32c | 84.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 63c | 81.64$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 61c | 81.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 76.3$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 47c | 74.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc51…b9e8backed No | 66c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 101 | 34.7%35 W · 66 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…9e2abacked Yes | 57c | 69.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 71c | 68.75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 44c | 64.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 24c | 64.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8e…5b53backed No | 55c | 63.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb9…9c56backed Yes | 31c | 62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +9.3wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 36c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed Yes | 41c | 55.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 60c | 55.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 63c | 54.04$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 38c | 52.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3be5…bc8bbacked Yes | 72c | 50.42$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 45c | 50.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 65c | 49.09$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes | 42c | 49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 34c | 46.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…1d94backed Yes | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 60c | 42.77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30bd…3cf9backed No | 69c | 42.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb251…caa4backed No | 72c | 42.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 42.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 49c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 38c | 37.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf316…b4c2backed Yes | 41c | 36.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 77c | 36.34$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 30c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 37c | 34.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 42c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 64c | 33.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 68c | 32.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 46c | 31.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 36c | 31.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 64c | 29.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 57c | 26.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 53c | 21.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 62c | 21.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 55c | 20.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C on July 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 35°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 39°C or higher on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.