Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0de472c55ee41825feb61b982bda0995272b4bb358f9f254c7f1fdf37363dea3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,944
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,281
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,944 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed No | 1c | 1,896$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 149 | 34.2%51 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed No | 19c | 1,578$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.82 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 20c | 1,448$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.13 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb9…1879backed Yes | 78c | 1,424$1,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.71 | 43 | 93%40 W · 3 L | +14.6wins | +0.34per pick | 59cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…f9debacked Yes | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 59 | 93.2%55 W · 4 L | +21.7wins | +0.37per pick | 56cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 36c | 992.22$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.76 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 64c | 940.17$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.93 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9a…e157backed No | 11c | 715.97$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…f012backed Yes | 47c | 663.17$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 19c | 654.06$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.18 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 620.7$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.9 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 65c | 546.33$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.25 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 519.46$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.61 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 52c | 458.84$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.24 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 15c | 431.24$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.16 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 64c | 368.51$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.36 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 14c | 334.57$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.14 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 38c | 278.39$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.93 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 62c | 264$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 17c | 242.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.17 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29e9…8be2backed Yes | 39c | 239.86$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.47 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 34c | 208.03$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.39 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 31c | 196.78$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.96 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 35c | 191.76$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.25 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 33c | 181.82$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.82 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 14c | 178$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 6c | 170$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.7 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 36c | 168.54$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.34 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 65c | 159.96$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.97 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 27c | 156.31$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.22 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 67c | 148.6$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.21 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 24c | 135.42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.92 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 64c | 133.01$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.13 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 124.82$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.58 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 36c | 122.75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.75 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 36c | 122.74$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.74 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0117…fd3bbacked No | 56c | 113.93$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 15c | 110.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.28 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 55c | 106.19$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.48 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 35c | 103.34$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.55 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 39c | 103$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.83 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 37c | 102.24$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.05 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc51…b9e8backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 101 | 34.7%35 W · 66 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 24c | 91.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 34c | 91.18$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.18 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 22c | 90.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.34 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 44c | 90$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3427…2ff7backed No | 54c | 83.33$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…b24abacked No | 64c | 77.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked No | 61c | 75$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…1b7cbacked No | 67c | 74.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 73.41$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 36c | 72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.08 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 45c | 70.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b6…6c51backed No | 64c | 70.31$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 70$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 52c | 67.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.41 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 36c | 66.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.89 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 29c | 65.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 34c | 64.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 56c | 64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 33c | 63.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 48c | 63.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.24 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 56c | 62.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 60$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2350…a351backed Yes | 33c | 59.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.71 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 49c | 59.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 55.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 40c | 55.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.04 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 33c | 54.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.86 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 69c | 54.04$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…c14bbacked No | 73c | 53.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 109 | 73.4%80 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 66c | 53.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 39c | 53.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed Yes | 32c | 52.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.82 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62d9…6da7backed No | 61c | 52.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 44c | 51.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 49c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…1d94backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 65c | 49.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes | 35c | 49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 33c | 48.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x069b…3b3bbacked No | 56c | 47.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 35c | 45.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 44c | 44.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.68 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 55c | 44.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 33c | 43.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 33c | 43.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 64c | 41.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 34c | 41.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b41…1955backed Yes | 38c | 40.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked No | 68c | 40.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 35°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 39°C or higher on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.