TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Twisted Minds Orchid vs SK Nebula (BO3) - VCT Game Changers EMEA Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
SK Nebulaof Twisted Minds Orchid, SK Nebula
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,910
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$27,795

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,910 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb63d…239fbacked Twisted Minds Orchid48c3,420$1,627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,626.96850%4 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdec6…1d8ebacked SK Nebula51c2,874$1,462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,411.853855.3%21 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd403…a817backed SK Nebula2c1,639$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,606.59128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick2cpaid+316.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Twisted Minds Orchid52c1,039$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.5850944.6%227 W · 282 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-18.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad08…c58bbacked SK Nebula50c859$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.5540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-31.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3351…4e2dbacked SK Nebula61c780.67$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.671758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Twisted Minds Orchid34c588.38$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.3188844.4%394 W · 494 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Twisted Minds Orchid48c577.06$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.8614158.2%82 W · 59 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Twisted Minds Orchid50c559.34$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.2728743.2%124 W · 163 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Twisted Minds Orchid51c544$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.4466438.1%253 W · 411 L-31.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe9cb…f7dbbacked Twisted Minds Orchid49c459.99$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.416241.4%67 W · 95 L-11.3wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-10.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbc4b…ecc5backed SK Nebula50c324.09$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.051172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick53cpaid+47.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Twisted Minds Orchid52c323.29$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.5746326.6%123 W · 340 L-26.0wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-38.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7100…c12abacked Twisted Minds Orchid70c309.88$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2164235.7%15 W · 27 L-4.4wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-37.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0d78…b8b9backed SK Nebula50c292$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.356051.7%31 W · 29 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+16.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbf3…70e3backed SK Nebula52c288.46$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.466055%33 W · 27 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Twisted Minds Orchid57c265.2$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.121,35839%530 W · 828 L-57.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x35b7…c557backed SK Nebula40c248$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.79250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed SK Nebula22c242.81$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.8635331.2%110 W · 243 L-29.2wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-38.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed SK Nebula51c234.39$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.8563447.9%304 W · 330 L-13.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf9b…2013backed SK Nebula44c223.11$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.9918735.3%66 W · 121 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf529…755fbacked Twisted Minds Orchid50c209$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.510341.7%43 W · 60 L-0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf3b…0375backed Twisted Minds Orchid49c199.98$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.999845.9%45 W · 53 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39a9…c69ebacked Twisted Minds Orchid47c199.98$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.592626.9%7 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Twisted Minds Orchid62c183.37$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.951,24749.6%619 W · 628 L-2.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0e3…c760backed SK Nebula38c159.16$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.162528%7 W · 18 L-4.0wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-39.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x94e8…f707backed SK Nebula48c158.95$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.954946.9%23 W · 26 L-5.3wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-19.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4798…f92dbacked SK Nebula34c156.75$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+193.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe803…b60ebacked SK Nebula51c134.51$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.9119551.3%100 W · 95 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x59d8…ad87backed SK Nebula34c115.98$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.984250%21 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x747f…ce15backed Twisted Minds Orchid58c112.56$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.41650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Twisted Minds Orchid35c112.44$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5369722.8%159 W · 538 L-94.4wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-54.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Twisted Minds Orchid21c110.92$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.121,27632.1%409 W · 867 L-67.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed SK Nebula51c109.24$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.2828252.5%148 W · 134 L-0.4wins0.00per pick53cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fb9…a8b3backed Twisted Minds Orchid28c106.21$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308259.8%49 W · 33 L+7.1wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+29.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Twisted Minds Orchid55c103.05$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6144342%186 W · 257 L-22.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Twisted Minds Orchid44c101.86$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.811,60845.2%727 W · 881 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x031d…610abacked Twisted Minds Orchid59c101.42$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed SK Nebula50c100.3$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.314254.9%78 W · 64 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+11.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Twisted Minds Orchid58c96.97$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.796245.1%434 W · 528 L-18.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad89…e006backed SK Nebula24c90.51$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.7923733.8%80 W · 157 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Twisted Minds Orchid72c82$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1638548.6%187 W · 198 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc785…4ef2backed Twisted Minds Orchid52c78.78$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415937.3%22 W · 37 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-41.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8310…82c7backed Twisted Minds Orchid51c73.56$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.46333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bc1…3f1cbacked SK Nebula51c70.31$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.4520051.5%103 W · 97 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Twisted Minds Orchid50c70$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9211442.1%48 W · 66 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9279…4748backed Twisted Minds Orchid72c70$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.46462.5%40 W · 24 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc21d…50c1backed Twisted Minds Orchid69c64.96$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456470.3%45 W · 19 L+7.0wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+18.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked SK Nebula52c63.57$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.7960154.2%326 W · 275 L+24.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked SK Nebula52c59.96$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.7277744%342 W · 435 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0cf1…d7febacked SK Nebula36c58.01$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.44755.3%26 W · 21 L+7.0wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+37.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x47c9…2038backed SK Nebula30c56.67$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.6112640.5%51 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f26…0efcbacked Twisted Minds Orchid49c54.91$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.91520%1 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.44per pick64cpaid-73.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1256…15aabacked Twisted Minds Orchid55c54.73$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf08e…1256backed SK Nebula55c53.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.842347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked SK Nebula43c49.97$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.487047.1%33 W · 37 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc846…c413backed SK Nebula51c49.31$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.168641.9%36 W · 50 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked SK Nebula53c49$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.0757151%291 W · 280 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc393…590abacked Twisted Minds Orchid76c48.53$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.882638.5%10 W · 16 L-3.5wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-25.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked SK Nebula46c48.06$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.7632157.6%185 W · 136 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3546…1a58backed SK Nebula21c47.62$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.626826.5%18 W · 50 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x70a0…2dc3backed SK Nebula21c47.62$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.624122%9 W · 32 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked Twisted Minds Orchid28c47.57$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0940254.7%220 W · 182 L+17.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xffb3…fc52backed SK Nebula31c46.75$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.272347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed SK Nebula60c45$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.999846%459 W · 539 L-27.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked SK Nebula48c40.93$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.1270043.7%306 W · 394 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1585…c3b7backed Twisted Minds Orchid50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203857.9%22 W · 16 L+3.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb7f4…106cbacked Twisted Minds Orchid68c40$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-34.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x12ee…0439backed SK Nebula49c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.46854.4%37 W · 31 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40e9…494fbacked Twisted Minds Orchid36c38.2$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.622025%5 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-49%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x999a…9a25backed Twisted Minds Orchid47c33.7$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7816144.7%72 W · 89 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Twisted Minds Orchid45c33.65$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0630835.4%109 W · 199 L-23.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-40.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Twisted Minds Orchid58c32.18$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6790733.1%300 W · 607 L-89.7wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-40.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed SK Nebula42c31.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5281134.9%283 W · 528 L-60.9wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-34.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x589a…8dc5backed SK Nebula32c31.25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2518647.8%89 W · 97 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5a5…6f1fbacked SK Nebula51c27.09$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.27911.1%1 W · 8 L-4.1wins-0.46per pick57cpaid-78.2%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xa658…f93ebacked SK Nebula75c26.8$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.827360.1%164 W · 109 L-10.7wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x085f…7a21backed Twisted Minds Orchid49c25.64$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.565846.6%27 W · 31 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81d1…4806backed Twisted Minds Orchid74c23.72$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.468357.8%48 W · 35 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed SK Nebula48c23.56$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.1751749.5%256 W · 261 L-2.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf61…f9e2backed Twisted Minds Orchid65c22.82$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.871154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+29.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xade6…c465backed Twisted Minds Orchid50c22.25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0765347.3%309 W · 344 L-18.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x351a…f836backed Twisted Minds Orchid73c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.65569.1%38 W · 17 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.