Valorant · resolved market
Map Handicap: EDG (-1.5) vs Nova Esports (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b83b7ac1ce157101fd665d7f3d41de4bd965aef8662bf22f972de12a3a6a627
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nova Esportsof EDward Gaming, Nova Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,839
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,230
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,839 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc65…96c8backed EDward Gaming | 41c | 3,701$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed Nova Esports | 60c | 3,500$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400 | 198 | 60.6%120 W · 78 L | +18.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd94a…fe08backed Nova Esports | 62c | 838.71$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.71 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.36per pick | 53cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6566…ea1ebacked EDward Gaming | 71c | 759.09$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.13 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed EDward Gaming | 39c | 529.61$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.55 | 639 | 55.6%355 W · 284 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed Nova Esports | 61c | 509.99$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.9 | 621 | 56.4%350 W · 271 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Nova Esports | 71c | 500.69$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.3 | 553 | 48.3%267 W · 286 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Nova Esports | 63c | 350$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.79 | 520 | 50%260 W · 260 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed EDward Gaming | 38c | 300.73$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.28 | 339 | 42.2%143 W · 196 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf20b…e27dbacked Nova Esports | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 176 | 53.4%94 W · 82 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2405…e055backed Nova Esports | 62c | 268.25$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.94 | 149 | 55.7%83 W · 66 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b8…31e6backed EDward Gaming | 40c | 266.75$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.7 | 361 | 45.7%165 W · 196 L | +22.8wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15e6…bb76backed EDward Gaming | 40c | 258$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.04 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb758…dd73backed Nova Esports | 61c | 254.97$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.44 | 253 | 47%119 W · 134 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cb…f7dbbacked Nova Esports | 63c | 247.09$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.77 | 162 | 41.4%67 W · 95 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked EDward Gaming | 42c | 237.21$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.21 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d3…42e4backed EDward Gaming | 38c | 195.39$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked EDward Gaming | 37c | 179.37$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.37 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ca…8f43backed EDward Gaming | 40c | 130$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1065…6218backed EDward Gaming | 41c | 126.27$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.77 | 176 | 40.3%71 W · 105 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x119d…bec3backed EDward Gaming | 40c | 125.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26f1…6d2fbacked Nova Esports | 27c | 124$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeebb…0b96backed EDward Gaming | 38c | 122.89$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…052abacked EDward Gaming | 38c | 112.71$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.83 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed EDward Gaming | 38c | 112.7$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.83 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed EDward Gaming | 36c | 103.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 321 | 41.7%134 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Nova Esports | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 666 | 50.8%338 W · 328 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x888d…c45dbacked EDward Gaming | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Nova Esports | 63c | 72$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.42 | 796 | 50%398 W · 398 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9803…0242backed Nova Esports | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 131 | 58%76 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Nova Esports | 60c | 54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b6…d353backed Nova Esports | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 251 | 46.6%117 W · 134 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Nova Esports | 55c | 48.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 241 | 40.2%97 W · 144 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e48…e8e6backed Nova Esports | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e33…45f6backed Nova Esports | 61c | 32.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe27…fdeebacked Nova Esports | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b77…6ba1backed Nova Esports | 53c | 29.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: EDG (-1.5) vs Nova Esports (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-2.5) vs Nova Esports (+2.5)Nova Esports won
- Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Nova Esports (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Group AlphaNova Esports won
- Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Nova Esports - Map 1 WinnerNova Esports won
- Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Nova Esports - Map 2 WinnerNova Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.