TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Nova Esports (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Group Alpha

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nova Esportsof EDward Gaming, Nova Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$162,096
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$170,529

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $162,096 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 340 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xeac2…dddcbacked Nova Esports37c33,414$12,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,02512652.4%66 W · 60 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba38…fb57backed EDward Gaming69c29,429$20,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,425.1425%1 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.44per pick69cpaid-64.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed EDward Gaming68c12,222$8,311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,310.9624145.2%109 W · 132 L-11.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Nova Esports30c9,828$2,948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,879.7133942.2%143 W · 196 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Nova Esports31c6,000$1,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,139.934131.7%13 W · 28 L-6.0wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-26.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdec6…1d8ebacked Nova Esports50c5,667$2,833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,833.263855.3%21 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x257e…ca61backed EDward Gaming52c4,275$2,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,233.222344.4%99 W · 124 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd27c…c081backed EDward Gaming71c3,888$2,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,760.482556%14 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick67cpaid-20.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Nova Esports31c3,867$1,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,668.1319860.6%120 W · 78 L+18.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+21.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Nova Esports29c3,206$930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,276.121,41751.3%727 W · 690 L+49.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc65…96c8backed EDward Gaming44c3,179$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4004042.5%17 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cb0…57e0backed Nova Esports33c3,000$983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,017.314158.5%24 W · 17 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+16.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Nova Esports50c3,000$1,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,514.1552050%260 W · 260 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Nova Esports48c2,900$1,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,520.7779650%398 W · 398 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Nova Esports53c2,900$1,539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,361.2655348.3%267 W · 286 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Nova Esports43c2,669$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,519.561,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Nova Esports35c2,398$828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,570.0715038%57 W · 93 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Nova Esports30c2,300$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,61041734.8%145 W · 272 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed EDward Gaming67c2,180$1,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,470.8610455.8%58 W · 46 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe97…361ebacked Nova Esports69c2,148$1,488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.093161.3%19 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick69cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f3b…11fbbacked EDward Gaming69c2,008$1,386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,385.71633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick65cpaid-45.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2cda…866dbacked EDward Gaming69c1,954$1,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,347.92955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba4f…b37bbacked Nova Esports32c1,890$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,290.281060%6 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed EDward Gaming57c1,753$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00034857.5%200 W · 148 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd052…563dbacked EDward Gaming52c1,642$846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$846.425451.9%28 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4980…5709backed Nova Esports32c1,500$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,014.532245.7%147 W · 175 L+52.2wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+40.7%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Nova Esports32c1,418$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$959.4533153.5%177 W · 154 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed EDward Gaming75c1,242$926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$925.6319648.5%95 W · 101 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed EDward Gaming40c1,231$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.215147%71 W · 80 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2944…cf36backed EDward Gaming38c1,122$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.965743.9%25 W · 32 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca96…7125backed EDward Gaming69c1,072$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Nova Esports39c1,019$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623.421,27632.1%409 W · 867 L-67.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Nova Esports60c1,015$609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.255152.5%289 W · 262 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0238…81a5backed EDward Gaming55c1,015$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.98450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-33.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0bc8…adf7backed EDward Gaming67c1,000$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6701346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1311…d450backed EDward Gaming68c999.91$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.945459.3%32 W · 22 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+26.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed EDward Gaming60c973.35$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.8193049.4%459 W · 471 L-0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed EDward Gaming68c885$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.4732141.7%134 W · 187 L-16.1wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Nova Esports51c813.8$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.2251749.5%256 W · 261 L-2.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked EDward Gaming43c780.76$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.831,30943.8%573 W · 736 L-44.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbba9…7800backed EDward Gaming67c738.14$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.55540%2 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick66cpaid-44.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed EDward Gaming68c736.16$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.363955.6%355 W · 284 L+1.9wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69f2…a80dbacked EDward Gaming69c730$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.76668.2%45 W · 21 L+5.7wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+17.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked EDward Gaming69c728.99$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50311458.8%67 W · 47 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ba2…6b6cbacked EDward Gaming69c725.5$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50016858.9%99 W · 69 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed Nova Esports41c721.64$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.1449255.3%272 W · 220 L+23.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7bfb…a2d7backed EDward Gaming70c701.54$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.0810661.3%65 W · 41 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked EDward Gaming62c697.88$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.328743.2%124 W · 163 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Nova Esports31c685.62$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.6813661%83 W · 53 L+14.8wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+24.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfe12…4f56backed EDward Gaming61c658.99$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400850%4 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-30.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0af3…9cb5backed EDward Gaming68c635.45$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.092040%8 W · 12 L-3.9wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-42%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x026b…8804backed EDward Gaming49c627.23$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.6415358.8%90 W · 63 L+14.7wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+16.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2d4b…aeb6backed EDward Gaming62c602.66$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Nova Esports31c570.12$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.236732.8%22 W · 45 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe1b9…c40bbacked EDward Gaming53c546.97$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76af…25c3backed Nova Esports31c523.5$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.221952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10ef…5b70backed Nova Esports61c516.63$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.912100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+101.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed EDward Gaming56c505.73$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.2932462.7%203 W · 121 L+31.7wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+10%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x65c1…2988backed EDward Gaming66c504.69$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.0925554.9%140 W · 115 L+13.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked EDward Gaming33c504$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.2220138.3%77 W · 124 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8833…3ea1backed EDward Gaming68c501$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.6820160.2%121 W · 80 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xba50…ad0bbacked EDward Gaming68c499.99$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.9924457.8%141 W · 103 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4bba…cf14backed EDward Gaming68c486.76$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3318538.8%33 W · 52 L-11.2wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-27.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x65e6…42dcbacked Nova Esports44c478.74$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.29737.1%36 W · 61 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked EDward Gaming52c471.46$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.4696245.1%434 W · 528 L-18.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2276…efd0backed EDward Gaming69c465.2$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.723177.4%24 W · 7 L+5.0wins+0.16per pick61cpaid+27.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed EDward Gaming65c459.21$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30026447.3%125 W · 139 L+9.6wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked EDward Gaming68c447$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.8128143.4%122 W · 159 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99fe…b61cbacked Nova Esports33c427.38$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.3825843%111 W · 147 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c90…5b3ebacked Nova Esports56c420.19$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.693658.3%21 W · 15 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+59.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaf48…36c2backed EDward Gaming68c415.99$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.872630.8%8 W · 18 L-4.3wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-31.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Nova Esports51c408.76$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.871,60845.2%727 W · 881 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d08…5d9fbacked Nova Esports57c405$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.153756.8%21 W · 16 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+19.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed EDward Gaming52c393.87$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.526048.3%29 W · 31 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked EDward Gaming33c391.14$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.9731227.6%86 W · 226 L-33.9wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-42.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed EDward Gaming32c374.72$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.9226634.6%92 W · 174 L-13.9wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Nova Esports48c371.16$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.431,49046.6%695 W · 795 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b73…02c0backed EDward Gaming54c367.45$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+19.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked EDward Gaming29c357.63$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.0788844.4%394 W · 494 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5dad…6e45backed EDward Gaming70c350$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick72cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefbc…b344backed EDward Gaming47c347.47$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.8916547.9%79 W · 86 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb71e…641abacked Nova Esports45c336$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.143441.2%14 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-26.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Nova Esports36c335.29$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.298145.7%37 W · 44 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf71e…917bbacked Nova Esports60c333.72$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.726867.6%46 W · 22 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x39ea…f75bbacked EDward Gaming58c330.53$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd723…25bfbacked Nova Esports41c329$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.51771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+36.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ea9…9248backed EDward Gaming69c315.94$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21811159.5%66 W · 45 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-5.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x069a…7c82backed Nova Esports54c311.97$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.97742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfba…583cbacked EDward Gaming50c305.88$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.15837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.22per pick59cpaid-44.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xef9f…8924backed Nova Esports32c299.98$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94a1…2075backed Nova Esports34c294.35$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.3523847.9%114 W · 124 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+13.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb55b…c5b4backed EDward Gaming69c290$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.15858.6%34 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ed8…2c70backed EDward Gaming69c285.03$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.6713261.4%81 W · 51 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92df…7a08backed Nova Esports32c284.92$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.9410151.5%52 W · 49 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Nova Esports29c282.41$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.514337.2%16 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94f1…b9e7backed Nova Esports37c273$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.9932152.6%169 W · 152 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32bf…ec60backed EDward Gaming74c270.35$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20019847%93 W · 105 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbcda…5e95backed EDward Gaming69c268.86$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.5111457%65 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad89…e006backed EDward Gaming30c250$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.8523733.8%80 W · 157 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed EDward Gaming68c240.49$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.4128252.5%148 W · 134 L-0.4wins0.00per pick53cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.