NFL · resolved market
Giants vs. Vikings
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9cbf74b70ecf4fa8b5012f32a51eaac13dff8375b953d28168cbf6d5f7147ea4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vikingsof Giants, Vikings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $127,587
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $138,400
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $127,587 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x741e…2f80backed Giants | 47c | 20,000$9,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,400 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Giants | 47c | 12,933$6,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,056.71 | 251 | 37.5%94 W · 157 L | -18.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Vikings | 51c | 8,284$4,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,059.21 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…d82cbacked Vikings | 52c | 8,264$4,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,967.78 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…abbabacked Giants | 50c | 5,320$2,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,659.9 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01e8…ce3bbacked Vikings | 53c | 5,200$2,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,444 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed Vikings | 50c | 5,100$2,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,538 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…0762backed Giants | 47c | 4,944$2,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,328.97 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Giants | 47c | 4,234$1,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,983.56 | 103 | 34%35 W · 68 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Vikings | 54c | 3,109$1,679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,430.24 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Vikings | 55c | 2,900$1,595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,305.21 | 324 | 38%123 W · 201 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…64abbacked Giants | 41c | 2,015$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.95 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Giants | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Giants | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Vikings | 54c | 1,830$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$841.96 | 186 | 45.7%85 W · 101 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b5…e05cbacked Giants | 31c | 1,800$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.24 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb866…36d4backed Vikings | 52c | 1,588$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.24 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…d337backed Giants | 46c | 1,486$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.73 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Giants | 48c | 1,457$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.47 | 362 | 46.7%169 W · 193 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Giants | 47c | 1,376$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.06 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf59e…39cfbacked Vikings | 55c | 1,182$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.9 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Vikings | 51c | 1,101$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.67 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6678…d4b6backed Vikings | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 181 | 44.8%81 W · 100 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Giants | 47c | 999.78$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.9 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x818d…282cbacked Giants | 46c | 983.81$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.87 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +155.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Vikings | 53c | 900$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -6.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0895…8273backed Giants | 47c | 857.31$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.42 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…e17ebacked Vikings | 53c | 704.96$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.33 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77cf…0e71backed Giants | 47c | 638.3$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1a…baf0backed Vikings | 55c | 623.82$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.82 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Vikings | 49c | 550$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.5 | 256 | 43.8%112 W · 144 L | +14.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Giants | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 129 | 34.9%45 W · 84 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…1095backed Giants | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1130…f920backed Vikings | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x13b7…3f92backed Vikings | 51c | 333.33$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.33 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Vikings | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…0d2abacked Giants | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…e186backed Giants | 8c | 262.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Giants | 13c | 254.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 217 | 13.8%30 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9d…79eabacked Giants | 46c | 247.81$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -45%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bb…cf60backed Giants | 50c | 242$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb43…b10abacked Vikings | 54c | 240.11$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.45 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca9d…07f7backed Giants | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Giants | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 330 | 47.9%158 W · 172 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9693…07c3backed Giants | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x699f…d5c6backed Giants | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc395…5c8cbacked Giants | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0416…2993backed Giants | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 43cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…0dfabacked Giants | 47c | 176.6$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb5…8b87backed Giants | 7c | 155.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Giants | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 202 | 46%93 W · 109 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Vikings | 53c | 129.61$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.92 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7591…9829backed Vikings | 54c | 106.56$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.02 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc79d…0203backed Giants | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed Vikings | 54c | 105.32$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.32 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Vikings | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 293 | 56%164 W · 129 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d03…aee3backed Giants | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93d0…0c2ebacked Giants | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Giants | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe41a…a42dbacked Vikings | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f53…07f4backed Vikings | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.34per pick | 49cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2d05…ba37backed Giants | 50c | 92$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd3…8534backed Vikings | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd33a…2cc4backed Giants | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -6.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…acd1backed Giants | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 233 | 51.9%121 W · 112 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Vikings | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Giants | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 204 | 40.7%83 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbb…a8fbbacked Vikings | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5574…6424backed Giants | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49de…4dc5backed Vikings | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf279…70cebacked Vikings | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbae7…836bbacked Vikings | 54c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0d…8b53backed Giants | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…3f08backed Giants | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbea9…02f9backed Vikings | 60c | 39.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf05…70dabacked Vikings | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 147 | 63.9%94 W · 53 L | +12.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf1…40d8backed Giants | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e39…9ca2backed Giants | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55bf…fc75backed Vikings | 52c | 25.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41f…e827backed Vikings | 54c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2147…fff9backed Vikings | 52c | 22.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…24dcbacked Vikings | 54c | 20.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 205 | 57.6%118 W · 87 L | +16.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a62…778ebacked Vikings | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +236.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9a…2bfcbacked Vikings | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.