TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 27.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,609
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,569

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,609 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8cc2…eaefbacked Yes57c678.23$387 inLost-$386.5911056.4%62 W · 48 L+6.9wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x782c…2445backed No43c381.83$164 inWon+$217.648342.2%35 W · 48 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…5095backed No48c203.47$97 inWon+$106.626836.8%25 W · 43 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-3.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed No45c188.31$85 inWon+$103.5749244.3%218 W · 274 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd11d…5656backed Yes52c182.25$95 inLost-$94.959239.1%36 W · 56 L-10.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-24.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed Yes53c156$83 inLost-$82.6256050.4%282 W · 278 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6683…f5f4backed No43c125.34$54 inWon+$71.4514649.3%72 W · 74 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ae1…bbedbacked No47c102.76$48 inWon+$54.34757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed Yes57c100$57 inLost-$5741050.7%208 W · 202 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked No43c74.12$32 inWon+$42.2593145.8%426 W · 505 L-25.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed No46c64.63$30 inWon+$34.996956.3%546 W · 423 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbf3…aa3abacked Yes55c62.22$34 inLost-$34.228851.1%45 W · 43 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec15…9b0cbacked Yes55c44.57$24 inLost-$24.3228536.8%105 W · 180 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xce9d…a219backed Yes55c44.23$24 inLost-$24.339944.4%44 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed No39c42.34$16 inWon+$25.9679650.9%405 W · 391 L+63.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8510…e41ebacked Yes54c35.72$19 inLost-$19.453537.1%13 W · 22 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9ee…43aabacked Yes55c27.45$15 inLost-$15.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed No43c27.04$12 inWon+$15.4149247.2%232 W · 260 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…ba2cbacked No41c27$11 inWon+$15.8726957.2%154 W · 115 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4504…e61cbacked Yes57c26.79$15 inLost-$15.19825%2 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-51.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3387…1e00backed Yes62c24.6$15 inLost-$15.13333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.32per pick65cpaid-52.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x705a…3a34backed Yes61c19.52$12 inLost-$11.9160%0 W · 6 L-3.2wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.