NBA · resolved market
1H Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f7a3ac5cce137a0197fff3057b84403bc7d4175d9bfb9334ccc4fae16d51c46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Nuggets, Timberwolves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,748
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,687
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,748 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x021c…232fbacked Nuggets | 53c | 3,765$1,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,988.5 | 120 | 56.7%68 W · 52 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Timberwolves | 46c | 2,908$1,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,570.39 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…49debacked Timberwolves | 49c | 2,040$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.39 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Nuggets | 54c | 1,306$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.74 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98da…a9ebbacked Timberwolves | 49c | 987.47$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.74 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac03…5350backed Timberwolves | 47c | 840.13$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.27 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7002…395cbacked Nuggets | 57c | 803.73$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.62 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Timberwolves | 44c | 572.16$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.96 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d3…4b1fbacked Nuggets | 51c | 466.86$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.1 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Timberwolves | 24c | 437.02$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.02 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +21.5wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +32%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x26a6…dedebacked Timberwolves | 24c | 400.4$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.97 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3048…057fbacked Nuggets | 55c | 347.13$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.06 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Nuggets | 53c | 346.8$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.87 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78bf…6df9backed Timberwolves | 53c | 345.83$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.25 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4d…0486backed Nuggets | 72c | 271.48$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.69 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Timberwolves | 15c | 240.64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.6 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Nuggets | 56c | 227.69$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.53 | 362 | 48.1%174 W · 188 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Nuggets | 51c | 185.55$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.63 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Nuggets | 33c | 146.51$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 620 | 47.3%293 W · 327 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Nuggets | 44c | 125$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 137 | 47.4%65 W · 72 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Timberwolves | 72c | 106.06$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Timberwolves | 27c | 102.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.99 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Nuggets | 69c | 91$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.48 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Nuggets | 69c | 90.58$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 804 | 40.3%324 W · 480 L | +27.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Timberwolves | 44c | 82.42$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xddf2…8bf0backed Timberwolves | 47c | 82.4$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.67 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Timberwolves | 48c | 74.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 367 | 49.6%182 W · 185 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x292a…5d78backed Nuggets | 55c | 63.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed Timberwolves | 56c | 63.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 201 | 46.8%94 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Timberwolves | 46c | 57.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 870 | 49.3%429 W · 441 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked Nuggets | 72c | 57$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 312 | 38.5%120 W · 192 L | +15.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Nuggets | 72c | 55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 404 | 40.1%162 W · 242 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad1a…283ebacked Timberwolves | 47c | 51.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2494…17b3backed Timberwolves | 47c | 45.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0654…f5a9backed Timberwolves | 45c | 42.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Timberwolves | 23c | 42.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 160 | 20%32 W · 128 L | -27.0wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Nuggets | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…5401backed Nuggets | 54c | 39.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0e…b0babacked Nuggets | 51c | 38.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 148 | 44.6%66 W · 82 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Timberwolves | 47c | 29.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Timberwolves | 46c | 29.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…46e5backed Timberwolves | 61c | 26.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e7…93aabacked Nuggets | 57c | 20.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc252…0aebbacked Nuggets | 51c | 19.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Nuggets | 69c | 16.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 142 | 64.8%92 W · 50 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)this page
- Aaron Gordon: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
- Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Cameron Johnson: Rebounds O/U 0.5Yes won
- Christian Braun: Points O/U 2.5Yes won
- Donte DiVincenzo: Assists O/U 0.5Yes won
- Jaden McDaniels: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
- Julius Randle: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 10.5No won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 27.5No won
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. NuggetsTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 230.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 231.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 232.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 233.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.