NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 112.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca79eb3ee99810ae45d54ab8972a3717be434e851bd253d680f1f9f36ae15ab4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,835
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,310
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,835 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd3d2…fe85backed Over | 57c | 2,549$1,453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,095.94 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc8…2f68backed Under | 43c | 2,286$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$983.14 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5b…cc75backed Under | 48c | 865.87$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.62 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 52c | 748.47$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.27 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeea8…0412backed Over | 58c | 416.04$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.3 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 66c | 400$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 188 | 44.7%84 W · 104 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 42c | 334.57$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.52 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Over | 52c | 293.76$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Under | 34c | 246.98$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.97 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 66c | 246.94$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.96 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Under | 34c | 237.2$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.65 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 34c | 152.06$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 43c | 130.23$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.62 | 870 | 49.3%429 W · 441 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…c7a2backed Under | 43c | 112.3$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.29 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Under | 50c | 102.28$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.14 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Under | 48c | 96.75$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 130 | 47.7%62 W · 68 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31ac…2a39backed Over | 57c | 85.08$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.17 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 52c | 64.6$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Under | 47c | 64.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55af…8407backed Over | 53c | 60.51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…5f85backed Under | 47c | 57.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 166 | 53.6%89 W · 77 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Under | 51c | 48.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 331 | 59.2%196 W · 135 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0823…8803backed Under | 48c | 40.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 58c | 37.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 620 | 47.3%293 W · 327 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 49c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb57…e52ebacked Over | 58c | 18.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 112.5this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)Timberwolves won
- Aaron Gordon: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
- Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Cameron Johnson: Rebounds O/U 0.5Yes won
- Christian Braun: Points O/U 2.5Yes won
- Donte DiVincenzo: Assists O/U 0.5Yes won
- Jaden McDaniels: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
- Julius Randle: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 10.5No won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 27.5No won
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. NuggetsTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 230.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 231.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 232.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 233.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.