TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: GenOne vs ex-RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #7 Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
GenOneof GenOne, ex-RUSTEC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$123,120
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$135,693

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $123,120 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 187 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x29b5…cc6cbacked ex-RUSTEC38c9,548$3,591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,590.685,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed GenOne64c5,496$3,518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,977.831,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked ex-RUSTEC34c5,336$1,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,822.737,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac4…1a34backed ex-RUSTEC39c4,547$1,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,790.111216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked GenOne61c3,500$2,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,364.991,01152.3%529 W · 482 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed ex-RUSTEC38c3,090$1,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,167.022,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1250…8f99backed GenOne65c3,073$1,983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,090.63475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed ex-RUSTEC36c2,742$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00059755.4%331 W · 266 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeef6…cd4cbacked GenOne64c2,566$1,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$916.7417448.3%84 W · 90 L-0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9267…869ebacked GenOne64c2,055$1,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$743.822755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a03…92d3backed ex-RUSTEC29c2,000$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.992634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-20.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed ex-RUSTEC24c1,900$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.534,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a90…7e68backed GenOne62c1,836$1,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$697.62958.6%17 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked GenOne63c1,787$1,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.2848948.9%239 W · 250 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed GenOne67c1,420$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.121,03353.2%550 W · 483 L+64.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5d7e…2ef7backed ex-RUSTEC57c1,419$813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$812.817759.9%106 W · 71 L+0.4wins0.00per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb17…c84bbacked GenOne62c1,328$823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.642259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+39.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a2c…3c32backed GenOne61c1,311$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.5919061.6%117 W · 73 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd8c…1b70backed GenOne62c1,297$804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.86633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-33.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed ex-RUSTEC41c1,281$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5235,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed ex-RUSTEC37c1,212$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.552,00953.9%1,082 W · 927 L+7.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked GenOne61c1,205$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.0338454.2%208 W · 176 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0063…2dd2backed ex-RUSTEC37c1,200$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.1140264.7%260 W · 142 L+49.2wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+10.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed ex-RUSTEC34c1,189$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.522,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed ex-RUSTEC45c1,111$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.942,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed ex-RUSTEC37c1,070$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.7846555.1%256 W · 209 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9c4…7433backed GenOne62c998.3$619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.3513244.7%59 W · 73 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked ex-RUSTEC33c761.48$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.735,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed GenOne62c711$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.1857641.1%237 W · 339 L-21.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed GenOne61c657.37$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.3761948%297 W · 322 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x920a…29e0backed GenOne62c649.27$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2447653.9%41 W · 35 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f8e…0c69backed GenOne55c638.97$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.8627438.3%105 W · 169 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe6c…a2c3backed ex-RUSTEC27c627.96$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.12552%13 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0e4…dd38backed ex-RUSTEC32c610.68$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.137057%211 W · 159 L+16.9wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e5e…7315backed GenOne62c600$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22822943.7%100 W · 129 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd098…8d1cbacked GenOne62c590$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.23560%21 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed GenOne76c585.37$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.791,57929.7%469 W · 1,110 L-86.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfcc7…4d38backed ex-RUSTEC38c585.29$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.415662.5%35 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked ex-RUSTEC33c580.99$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.42,62247.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L-33.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41bb…1999backed GenOne63c555.48$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.475448.1%26 W · 28 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9544…7518backed GenOne62c526.16$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.94785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick63cpaid+38.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5317…9a3bbacked GenOne66c499.37$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.032259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x574c…5e18backed GenOne67c488.66$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.66366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed GenOne63c474.24$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.4732344.3%143 W · 180 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf3…70e3backed GenOne63c454.83$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.298641.9%36 W · 50 L-7.6wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-21.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed GenOne62c433.22$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.7411247.3%53 W · 59 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3b4…9f6fbacked GenOne62c427.22$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.844067.5%27 W · 13 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd1f…3b4dbacked GenOne62c424.19$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.19714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.36per pick50cpaid-77%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4f8c…9a58backed GenOne65c407.04$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.565646.4%26 W · 30 L-6.1wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-26%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7655…f0b2backed GenOne61c400.49$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.192462.5%15 W · 9 L-0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc0c…dac0backed GenOne77c400$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9241475.4%312 W · 102 L+22.1wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdda3…d55fbacked ex-RUSTEC42c399.99$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1688946.1%41 W · 48 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed ex-RUSTEC45c399.76$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.552,43444.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L-64.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6cd3…226ebacked ex-RUSTEC24c389.44$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.4737922.2%84 W · 295 L-43.1wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-47.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed GenOne63c341.86$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.2669445%312 W · 382 L-24.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed GenOne61c322.66$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.841,62052.7%853 W · 767 L+57.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xadeb…5850backed ex-RUSTEC34c317.26$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.44161%25 W · 16 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked GenOne68c304.02$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.421,84841.7%770 W · 1,078 L-69.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed ex-RUSTEC38c300.59$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.2399148.3%479 W · 512 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked GenOne48c291.17$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.433,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed GenOne63c280.99$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.6648851.8%253 W · 235 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked GenOne43c261.99$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.162,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked GenOne72c259$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.553,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeeaa…15cebacked ex-RUSTEC36c250.62$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903756.8%21 W · 16 L+5.7wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+33.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x249f…fed3backed GenOne73c240.13$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.244568.9%31 W · 14 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb697…5d0cbacked GenOne62c232.26$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.264845.8%22 W · 26 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdfe3…ec6fbacked GenOne62c230$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.4633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-50%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2947…e04fbacked GenOne63c228.82$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.562245.5%10 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.12per pick57cpaid-23.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3e83…00aabacked GenOne63c225$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.6617142.1%72 W · 99 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7eeb…b6bdbacked ex-RUSTEC30c225$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.520447.1%96 W · 108 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cb5…819abacked ex-RUSTEC31c224.02$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.611551.3%59 W · 56 L-0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked ex-RUSTEC42c203.02$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.534,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked ex-RUSTEC31c199.98$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.391,35252%703 W · 649 L+29.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x401d…23c6backed ex-RUSTEC35c193.03$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.229339.8%37 W · 56 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed ex-RUSTEC29c176.47$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.582,50841%1,029 W · 1,479 L-115.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcef5…e9acbacked GenOne62c175.33$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.636437.5%24 W · 40 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-18.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed GenOne78c173.15$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.642154.6%230 W · 191 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c98…186dbacked GenOne64c170.5$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.3835947.9%172 W · 187 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked GenOne62c166.12$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.643,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x161a…05c5backed ex-RUSTEC21c161.79$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.761625%4 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-30.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8da6…107abacked GenOne62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.2912948.8%63 W · 66 L-7.1wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e47…bdbfbacked GenOne62c160$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.838469.5%267 W · 117 L+31.6wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+13.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x08e0…f4a0backed ex-RUSTEC38c157.89$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6083856.1%470 W · 368 L+31.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed ex-RUSTEC35c157.85$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6168659.5%408 W · 278 L+65.9wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+13.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1b28…bf9fbacked ex-RUSTEC30c157.48$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4572…47e7backed ex-RUSTEC38c157.36$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.845645.2%206 W · 250 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15ef…647cbacked GenOne68c147.89$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.85759.6%34 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed ex-RUSTEC36c144.51$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.6279951.7%413 W · 386 L+25.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94a1…2075backed ex-RUSTEC35c142.18$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5045244.5%201 W · 251 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96f9…6c15backed GenOne71c140.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.856756.7%38 W · 29 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed ex-RUSTEC16c140$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.21,54733.9%524 W · 1,023 L-73.4wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x60b1…8e7dbacked GenOne67c135.25$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.832035%7 W · 13 L-3.4wins-0.17per pick52cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xd43f…0bb0backed ex-RUSTEC29c134.99$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0638131%118 W · 263 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cb5…2d03backed GenOne67c134.11$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.268240.2%33 W · 49 L-7.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-22%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdbd1…0ac8backed GenOne62c130$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.41471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+15.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e18…872ebacked ex-RUSTEC39c128.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505172.5%37 W · 14 L+7.6wins+0.15per pick58cpaid+23.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xaa52…865bbacked GenOne62c125.77$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.251090%9 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.26per pick64cpaid+45.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe302…a986backed ex-RUSTEC39c125.66$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.014757.4%27 W · 20 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb77…fbeebacked ex-RUSTEC29c123$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7323156.3%130 W · 101 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe803…b60ebacked GenOne62c114.92$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.6732458%188 W · 136 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.