Champions League · resolved market
Qairat FK vs. FK Sutjeska Nikšić: Qairat FK O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e4fc5b98661f695ddba4bde5ffb4d9ab274220d835884a8eb145814a2ed1f92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,804
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,584
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,804 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 56c | 694.18$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.96 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +20.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e5…9623backed Under | 48c | 616.53$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe341…0053backed Over | 29c | 364.29$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 54c | 325.97$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.34 | 1,021 | 35.3%360 W · 661 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 49c | 317.14$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.74 | 210 | 37.1%78 W · 132 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 49c | 280$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.48 | 381 | 42.8%163 W · 218 L | -22.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 55c | 276.98$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.64 | 886 | 31.7%281 W · 605 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 52c | 253.04$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.99 | 403 | 50.9%205 W · 198 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 52c | 245$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.35 | 502 | 47.2%237 W · 265 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 51c | 245$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.95 | 607 | 48.4%294 W · 313 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10a…d6c2backed Over | 48c | 206.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 114 | 40.4%46 W · 68 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e3…810cbacked Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…1cd3backed Over | 58c | 120.69$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 46c | 115.59$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.42 | 650 | 50.2%326 W · 324 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 54c | 104.1$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.29 | 306 | 56.9%174 W · 132 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 14c | 101.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d1…95eebacked Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 47c | 90.18$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.84 | 225 | 52%117 W · 108 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…a31dbacked Over | 26c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf04…90b5backed Over | 45c | 71.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.26per pick | 39cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 45c | 66.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 328 | 43.6%143 W · 185 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Over | 46c | 53.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 44c | 47.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 520 | 46.7%243 W · 277 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…6c60backed Over | 50c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 45c | 36.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 915 | 37.6%344 W · 571 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 74c | 34.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 446 | 47.3%211 W · 235 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cef…2c8dbacked Under | 48c | 23.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef3a…dc6bbacked Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +78%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 72c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 382 | 53.9%206 W · 176 L | +21.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Qairat FK vs. FK Sutjeska Nikšić: Qairat FK O/U 2.5this page
- Qairat FK vs. FK Sutjeska Nikšić: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Qairat FK vs. FK Sutjeska Nikšić: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Qairat FK vs. FK Sutjeska Nikšić: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Qairat FK vs. FK Sutjeska Nikšić: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Qairat FK vs. FK Sutjeska Nikšić: FK Sutjeska Nikšić O/U 0.5Over won
- Qairat FK vs. FK Sutjeska Nikšić: FK Sutjeska Nikšić O/U 1.5Under won
- Qairat FK vs. FK Sutjeska Nikšić: O/U 0.5Over won
- Qairat FK vs. FK Sutjeska Nikšić: O/U 1.5Over won
- Qairat FK vs. FK Sutjeska Nikšić: O/U 2.5Over won
- Qairat FK vs. FK Sutjeska Nikšić: O/U 3.5Under won
- Qairat FK vs. FK Sutjeska Nikšić: O/U 4.5Under won
- Qairat FK vs. FK Sutjeska Nikšić: O/U 5.5Under won
- Qairat FK vs. FK Sutjeska Nikšić: Qairat FK O/U 0.5Over won
- Qairat FK vs. FK Sutjeska Nikšić: Qairat FK O/U 1.5Over won
- Spread: FK Sutjeska Nikšić (-1.5)Qairat FK won
- Spread: Qairat FK (-1.5)FK Sutjeska Nikšić won
- Spread: Qairat FK (-2.5)FK Sutjeska Nikšić won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.