Qairat FK vs. FK Sutjeska Nikšić: O/U 3.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a0cb97b183a309de342299bc0ded97ca1d6ac1a61d51d8e17a4c709c1c1d880

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jul 8, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $37,597
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $39,296

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,597 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Champions League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over	45c	7,000$3,150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,149.96	40	20%8 W · 32 L	-9.4wins	-0.24per pick	44cpaid	-59.6%equal weight	34-0.14 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over	41c	3,591$1,481 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,481.47	910	32.6%297 W · 613 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Over	1c	3,352$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.71	614	37.5%230 W · 384 L	-27.5wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	79c	3,034$2,396 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$637.6	2,025	43.7%884 W · 1,141 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Under	55c	2,788$1,533 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,254.43	210	37.1%78 W · 132 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe301…8654backed Over	8c	2,117$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.8	43	41.9%18 W · 25 L	+3.4wins	+0.08per pick	34cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0cc…f354backed Over	1c	1,695$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.38	31	29%9 W · 22 L	-2.4wins	-0.08per pick	37cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under	55c	1,596$879 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$716.48	968	37.4%362 W · 606 L	+31.4wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fb2…5c04backed Over	2c	1,200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeee5…3d51backed Over	45c	1,109$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under	55c	970.39$534 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$436.89	454	52%236 W · 218 L	+4.5wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Under	55c	850.96$468 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$382.72	398	49.2%196 W · 202 L	+19.4wins	+0.05per pick	44cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	62c	590.79$367 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$223.78	1,543	40.1%618 W · 925 L	-9.1wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe08c…e03cbacked Over	25c	522$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.9	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-1.3wins	-0.08per pick	40cpaid	-36%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x93bd…89bcbacked Under	59c	511.86$302 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$209.86	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.13per pick	47cpaid	+46%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over	21c	484.29$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.24	498	40.4%201 W · 297 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Under	55c	425.85$235 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$190.67	472	46.8%221 W · 251 L	+12.3wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under	62c	403$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$153.14	404	50.7%205 W · 199 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under	62c	403$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$153.14	526	46.8%246 W · 280 L	-9.1wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over	38c	400$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.7wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over	4c	366$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.64	58	31%18 W · 40 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under	58c	344.92$199 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$145.77	522	46.7%244 W · 278 L	+2.7wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under	58c	328.01$192 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$136.47	676	49.4%334 W · 342 L	-15.8wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x793c…1b9ebacked Over	36c	323.52$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.67	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+1.1wins	+0.37per pick	29cpaid	+225.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Over	6c	311.43$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	186	43.5%81 W · 105 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x683a…274ebacked Over	13c	299.99$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd09…43aabacked Over	47c	287.23$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.47per pick	47cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Under	59c	279.95$166 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$114.17	394	42.9%169 W · 225 L	-23.3wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Under	79c	278$220 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.38	28	50%14 W · 14 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Under	57c	276.75$158 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$118.72	749	35.4%265 W · 484 L	-30.8wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-30%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under	63c	276.05$174 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.16	611	48.3%295 W · 316 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under	58c	260.15$152 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.14	664	46.2%307 W · 357 L	-22.2wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed Under	79c	243$192 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.03	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	54cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd4a…1104backed Over	45c	235$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.75	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-1.6wins	-0.16per pick	46cpaid	-50.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa36d…6a0cbacked Under	55c	230.91$127 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$103.91	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.20per pick	30cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6553…7a71backed Under	62c	224.8$139 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.42	99	47.5%47 W · 52 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5981…3934backed Over	44c	219.42$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.41	62	32.3%20 W · 42 L	-5.6wins	-0.09per pick	41cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Over	7c	219.37$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.99	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bf5…2307backed Over	21c	212.52$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.82	35	71.4%25 W · 10 L	+5.9wins	+0.17per pick	55cpaid	+46.1%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x57ef…044abacked Under	62c	199.98$124 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.99	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	+1.9wins	+0.11per pick	48cpaid	+27.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Over	41c	186.85$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.61	222	45%100 W · 122 L	-5.0wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40d0…4415backed Under	62c	186.8$116 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.98	30	43.3%13 W · 17 L	-1.7wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe11…18cfbacked Under	55c	180$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81	44	59.1%26 W · 18 L	+1.6wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e05…2ebcbacked Under	55c	180$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81	42	57.1%24 W · 18 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47fb…0c7bbacked Under	55c	180$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81	36	63.9%23 W · 13 L	+3.3wins	+0.09per pick	55cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under	54c	171.73$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.25	1,071	34.8%373 W · 698 L	-15.0wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d3b…28bdbacked Under	55c	152.73$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.73	95	49.5%47 W · 48 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90b3…8b6dbacked Over	36c	144.45$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.85	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x607d…f414backed Over	9c	142.9$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.68	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.11per pick	28cpaid	-52.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8877…1fa6backed Over	16c	126.9$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.21per pick	29cpaid	+19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2126…aeebbacked Over	11c	123.93$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.51	61	60.7%37 W · 24 L	+4.9wins	+0.08per pick	53cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x574f…6849backed Over	42c	119.05$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.9wins	-0.32per pick	49cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x52d8…100dbacked Over	42c	119.05$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	58cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under	79c	109.48$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.99	69	53.6%37 W · 32 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	57cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa710…f1ccbacked Over	37c	108.11$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	152	36.8%56 W · 96 L	+7.2wins	+0.05per pick	32cpaid	+26.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5283…b53cbacked Over	47c	102.77$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+42.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b42…7cbebacked Over	44c	99.99$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf04…90b5backed Over	35c	97.14$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-3.9wins	-0.26per pick	39cpaid	-70.9%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x488c…a2dabacked Under	56c	89.83$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.83	90	50%45 W · 45 L	-6.9wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xef1d…3080backed Over	42c	84.12$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.49	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.42per pick	42cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x186a…559dbacked Under	62c	80.65$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.65	29	55.2%16 W · 13 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Under	63c	77.03$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.5	316	56.6%179 W · 137 L	+13.1wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x20aa…b3dcbacked Under	56c	71.43$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.43	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+1.0wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c3f…e6a2backed Under	71c	70$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.1	33	51.5%17 W · 16 L	-2.0wins	-0.06per pick	58cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa019…c220backed Under	56c	62.82$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.64	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-1.6wins	-0.09per pick	37cpaid	-50.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x939d…3b3cbacked Over	47c	59.75$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.08	106	47.2%50 W · 56 L	+5.4wins	+0.05per pick	42cpaid	+15.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x490f…a02dbacked Over	37c	54.05$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	24	54.2%13 W · 11 L	+2.8wins	+0.12per pick	43cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd966…8136backed Over	40c	49.98$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.99	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-2.5wins	-0.20per pick	35cpaid	-62.5%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd443…5f71backed Under	58c	49$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.58	149	42.3%63 W · 86 L	-8.0wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-15%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf3d0…2fefbacked Under	79c	48.96$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.28	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3404…10d2backed Under	61c	43.16$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.67	59	47.5%28 W · 31 L	-3.1wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7113…dba4backed Over	38c	39.47$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	216	43.5%94 W · 122 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Over	35c	38$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.25	43	32.6%14 W · 29 L	-7.9wins	-0.18per pick	51cpaid	-40.8%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Over	35c	38$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.25	35	48.6%17 W · 18 L	-2.2wins	-0.06per pick	55cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1fa8…0b19backed Under	55c	36.82$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.57	36	50%18 W · 18 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1715…a049backed Under	66c	36.58$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.52	109	52.3%57 W · 52 L	-4.6wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Under	64c	31.14$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.15	315	56.5%178 W · 137 L	+10.7wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	-2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa87b…968bbacked Over	45c	31.11$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	70	27.1%19 W · 51 L	-3.5wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x193a…2dfabacked Under	64c	30$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.95	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x83d9…10d9backed Under	55c	27.66$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.45	99	46.5%46 W · 53 L	+4.0wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2892…e9d7backed Over	45c	26.74$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.03	80	53.8%43 W · 37 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa494…4a1fbacked Under	62c	24$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.12	26	50%13 W · 13 L	-1.7wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa529…677ebacked Under	67c	20.45$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.85	24	58.3%14 W · 10 L	-2.1wins	-0.09per pick	67cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x237f…e76ebacked Under	58c	20.11$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.52	49	44.9%22 W · 27 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x47c9…2038backed Under	79c	15$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.15	35	40%14 W · 21 L	-2.0wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Qairat FK vs. FK Sutjeska Nikšić: O/U 3.5this page
Qairat FK vs. FK Sutjeska Nikšić: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Qairat FK vs. FK Sutjeska Nikšić: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Qairat FK vs. FK Sutjeska Nikšić: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
Qairat FK vs. FK Sutjeska Nikšić: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Qairat FK vs. FK Sutjeska Nikšić: FK Sutjeska Nikšić O/U 0.5Over won
Qairat FK vs. FK Sutjeska Nikšić: FK Sutjeska Nikšić O/U 1.5Under won
Qairat FK vs. FK Sutjeska Nikšić: O/U 0.5Over won
Qairat FK vs. FK Sutjeska Nikšić: O/U 1.5Over won
Qairat FK vs. FK Sutjeska Nikšić: O/U 2.5Over won
Qairat FK vs. FK Sutjeska Nikšić: O/U 4.5Under won
Qairat FK vs. FK Sutjeska Nikšić: O/U 5.5Under won
Qairat FK vs. FK Sutjeska Nikšić: Qairat FK O/U 0.5Over won
Qairat FK vs. FK Sutjeska Nikšić: Qairat FK O/U 1.5Over won
Qairat FK vs. FK Sutjeska Nikšić: Qairat FK O/U 2.5Under won
Spread: FK Sutjeska Nikšić (-1.5)Qairat FK won
Spread: Qairat FK (-1.5)FK Sutjeska Nikšić won
Spread: Qairat FK (-2.5)FK Sutjeska Nikšić won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Qairat FK vs. FK Sutjeska Nikšić: O/U 3.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event