Champions League · resolved market
Spread: Qairat FK (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac71a10d75ecd0c07afa9de72ae59d0e645e9b10fcd0912ede406136996020b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FK Sutjeska Nikšićof Qairat FK, FK Sutjeska Nikšić
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,668
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,807
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,668 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Qairat FK | 4c | 7,243$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.22 | 1,487 | 40.3%599 W · 888 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcd…e3d7backed Qairat FK | 46c | 6,422$2,969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,968.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Qairat FK | 8c | 5,398$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 450 | 42%189 W · 261 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Qairat FK | 40c | 1,232$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.66 | 415 | 53%220 W · 195 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed FK Sutjeska Nikšić | 65c | 1,048$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.86 | 704 | 35.8%252 W · 452 L | -27.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed FK Sutjeska Nikšić | 60c | 741.62$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.94 | 875 | 31.1%272 W · 603 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed FK Sutjeska Nikšić | 56c | 731.36$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.54 | 614 | 47.2%290 W · 324 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…2ca9backed FK Sutjeska Nikšić | 59c | 687.97$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.07 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Qairat FK | 41c | 610.39$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.76 | 362 | 48.6%176 W · 186 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abb…0901backed FK Sutjeska Nikšić | 60c | 496.25$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee5…3d51backed Qairat FK | 45c | 445.02$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed FK Sutjeska Nikšić | 66c | 431.95$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.48 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53e1…f420backed Qairat FK | 29c | 392.44$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Qairat FK | 43c | 376.15$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.02 | 520 | 46.7%243 W · 277 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked FK Sutjeska Nikšić | 64c | 362.38$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.69 | 426 | 47.9%204 W · 222 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Qairat FK | 16c | 290.93$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.91 | 179 | 36.9%66 W · 113 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f90…4c92backed Qairat FK | 38c | 265.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Qairat FK | 39c | 260.94$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.03 | 224 | 52.2%117 W · 107 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed FK Sutjeska Nikšić | 61c | 245$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.69 | 243 | 40.7%99 W · 144 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked FK Sutjeska Nikšić | 62c | 220.04$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.97 | 367 | 42.8%157 W · 210 L | -22.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a74…9a36backed Qairat FK | 23c | 199.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Qairat FK | 41c | 181.11$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.64 | 313 | 42.5%133 W · 180 L | -15.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed FK Sutjeska Nikšić | 66c | 181$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.54 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe11…18cfbacked FK Sutjeska Nikšić | 57c | 180$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.4 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e05…2ebcbacked FK Sutjeska Nikšić | 57c | 180$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.4 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47fb…0c7bbacked FK Sutjeska Nikšić | 57c | 180$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.4 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x706c…1ca6backed FK Sutjeska Nikšić | 57c | 145.53$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed FK Sutjeska Nikšić | 54c | 123.73$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 358 | 60.6%217 W · 141 L | +21.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86c3…2020backed Qairat FK | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3b…28bdbacked FK Sutjeska Nikšić | 60c | 101.89$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.89 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed FK Sutjeska Nikšić | 62c | 91.57$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecbb…a8c2backed Qairat FK | 40c | 91.36$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ce…fd49backed FK Sutjeska Nikšić | 56c | 89.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Qairat FK | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 152 | 36.8%56 W · 96 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7f…4a4abacked FK Sutjeska Nikšić | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa12c…b9ecbacked Qairat FK | 41c | 71.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked FK Sutjeska Nikšić | 74c | 68.81$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Qairat FK | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed FK Sutjeska Nikšić | 78c | 65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed FK Sutjeska Nikšić | 59c | 61.4$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed FK Sutjeska Nikšić | 61c | 51.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 994 | 35%348 W · 646 L | -10.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…367cbacked FK Sutjeska Nikšić | 61c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed FK Sutjeska Nikšić | 59c | 36.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Qairat FK | 39c | 36.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 80 | 53.8%43 W · 37 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Qairat FK | 41c | 35.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f7…ff16backed FK Sutjeska Nikšić | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed FK Sutjeska Nikšić | 68c | 29.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed FK Sutjeska Nikšić | 56c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 97 | 48.5%47 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed FK Sutjeska Nikšić | 58c | 21.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83fb…547abacked FK Sutjeska Nikšić | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Qairat FK (-2.5)this page
- Qairat FK vs. FK Sutjeska Nikšić: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Qairat FK vs. FK Sutjeska Nikšić: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Qairat FK vs. FK Sutjeska Nikšić: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Qairat FK vs. FK Sutjeska Nikšić: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Qairat FK vs. FK Sutjeska Nikšić: FK Sutjeska Nikšić O/U 0.5Over won
- Qairat FK vs. FK Sutjeska Nikšić: FK Sutjeska Nikšić O/U 1.5Under won
- Qairat FK vs. FK Sutjeska Nikšić: O/U 0.5Over won
- Qairat FK vs. FK Sutjeska Nikšić: O/U 1.5Over won
- Qairat FK vs. FK Sutjeska Nikšić: O/U 2.5Over won
- Qairat FK vs. FK Sutjeska Nikšić: O/U 3.5Under won
- Qairat FK vs. FK Sutjeska Nikšić: O/U 4.5Under won
- Qairat FK vs. FK Sutjeska Nikšić: O/U 5.5Under won
- Qairat FK vs. FK Sutjeska Nikšić: Qairat FK O/U 0.5Over won
- Qairat FK vs. FK Sutjeska Nikšić: Qairat FK O/U 1.5Over won
- Qairat FK vs. FK Sutjeska Nikšić: Qairat FK O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: FK Sutjeska Nikšić (-1.5)Qairat FK won
- Spread: Qairat FK (-1.5)FK Sutjeska Nikšić won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.