TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

First Round Pool B: USA vs. Mexico

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
USAof USA, Mexico
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$536,055

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $536,055 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 179 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5375…aeeabacked Mexico20c87,399$17,446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,446.021,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Mexico20c84,543$16,572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,571.797753.2%41 W · 36 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+50%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xceec…4ad9backed Mexico21c48,110$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed USA80c36,708$29,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,358.623351.1%119 W · 114 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+14.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed USA80c29,955$23,964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,9911145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-20.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd36…6ec9backed Mexico19c23,767$4,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,528.662254.5%12 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+64.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked USA78c18,838$14,697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,141.0246547.1%219 W · 246 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Mexico21c18,766$3,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,886.9920548.3%99 W · 106 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked USA78c16,344$12,748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,595.674548.9%22 W · 23 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Mexico22c14,449$3,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,245.415442.6%23 W · 31 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe5b3…49f8backed Mexico4c10,636$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4775448.1%26 W · 28 L+5.4wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x65de…9846backed USA80c10,000$8,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,000250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed USA80c7,740$6,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,54832152%167 W · 154 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Mexico1c6,498$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.75336.1%2 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+66.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7837…40f1backed USA80c4,420$3,536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$884450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked USA78c4,284$3,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$930.261,04150.1%522 W · 519 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa206…ab03backed Mexico19c3,999$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.741233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Mexico22c3,795$853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$853.451,46644.1%647 W · 819 L+44.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Mexico6c3,341$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.8514724.5%36 W · 111 L-0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1e6…1dc1backed Mexico22c3,000$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.988247.6%39 W · 43 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x437b…0ba4backed USA78c2,263$1,774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.021553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick62cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc98…f222backed Mexico2c2,142$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…ea3bbacked Mexico20c2,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed USA80c1,916$1,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.22356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Mexico19c1,886$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.1810353.4%55 W · 48 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Mexico3c1,872$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.4796133.9%326 W · 635 L-38.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Mexico19c1,653$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.3812,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc44d…935cbacked USA79c1,505$1,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.044555.6%25 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed Mexico20c1,438$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.5814039.3%55 W · 85 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a89…8e52backed Mexico20c1,250$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf83d…367dbacked USA79c1,023$804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.876145.9%28 W · 33 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+51.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5061…1b03backed USA78c1,003$782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.563060%18 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+24.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Mexico6c997.8$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.433321.2%7 W · 26 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-27.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1346…0448backed Mexico2c900$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.51553.3%8 W · 7 L+4.2wins+0.28per pick25cpaid+187%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked USA78c897$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.341,52148.6%739 W · 782 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Mexico7c843.24$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.73333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf026…8df7backed Mexico19c795$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.647750.6%39 W · 38 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed USA75c789.69$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.38948.3%43 W · 46 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0204…0e31backed Mexico22c781.82$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17218048.3%87 W · 93 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+18.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Mexico2c627$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.33929.4%37 W · 355 L+1.5wins0.00per pick9cpaid-40.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3100…9bc9backed USA80c625.34$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.071637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick47cpaid+42.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe70d…dd35backed USA80c625$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125520%1 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.39per pick59cpaid-75%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9f92…1862backed USA80c625$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1251353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed USA79c568$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.231038.4%119 W · 191 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+28.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e54…c8ccbacked USA76c562.01$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.782133.3%7 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick44cpaid+48.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x701f…9b8fbacked Mexico18c558$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002259.1%13 W · 9 L+3.0wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+34.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa78b…d26dbacked Mexico21c556.29$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Mexico4c526.03$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.341,17329%340 W · 833 L-0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Mexico21c517.94$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.2214328.7%41 W · 102 L-11.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-32.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Mexico20c502.37$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.3940846.1%188 W · 220 L-10.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fe9…9c50backed USA80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1008159.3%48 W · 33 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9386…cfe5backed USA80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3222…2823backed Mexico20c499.75$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9516148.4%78 W · 83 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2dc0…e57dbacked Mexico15c470.16$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.3326315.6%41 W · 222 L-11.9wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-49.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9901…6adbbacked Mexico23c448.72$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10111844.1%52 W · 66 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b25…ef0fbacked Mexico11c447.4$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501010%1 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked USA78c445.53$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.021,86552%970 W · 895 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05e0…e2cbbacked USA78c433.36$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.3411244.6%50 W · 62 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f19…b9ffbacked Mexico20c382$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.43542.9%15 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdab8…1bc7backed USA79c380.35$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.87922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-68%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x15cc…bfaabacked Mexico13c378.81$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505343.4%23 W · 30 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fd9…f0d5backed USA80c376.58$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.5834264.3%220 W · 122 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a5f…e226backed Mexico13c319.29$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick49cpaid-77.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xda16…6da2backed USA79c313.42$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.796758.2%39 W · 28 L+6.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed USA74c302.31$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.65352.8%28 W · 25 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8c8…7c4cbacked Mexico22c300.98$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.4850655.3%280 W · 226 L+29.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x32aa…0c01backed Mexico3c300$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10650%3 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+476.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc9f…905bbacked Mexico20c300$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6036729.4%108 W · 259 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7381…5b63backed USA79c300$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6320648.1%99 W · 107 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f74…4fccbacked Mexico20c299.69$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43e8…af56backed Mexico19c283.21$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick33cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8512…a38cbacked Mexico21c281.94$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb149…0a3dbacked Mexico21c260.72$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.791435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked USA76c260.62$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.0750751.7%262 W · 245 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7906…1432backed USA78c257.97$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.971172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick72cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe617…f251backed USA79c253.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.16475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0dcc…031ebacked Mexico20c250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.747846.2%36 W · 42 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+18.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e45…4b13backed USA80c250$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5011961.3%73 W · 46 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked USA80c250$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501,20558.8%708 W · 497 L+31.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3129…22edbacked USA80c250$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5012746.5%59 W · 68 L-7.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x06fc…4fb6backed Mexico21c248.99$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2410541%43 W · 62 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb3f0…c8a6backed USA78c243.59$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.5914945.6%68 W · 81 L-9.0wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a50…ea80backed Mexico20c235.75$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.151723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick24cpaid+8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2604…5d34backed USA80c221.47$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.04425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.36per pick61cpaid-68.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Mexico23c218.63$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2755541.4%230 W · 325 L-26.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd3f…a8bdbacked USA80c216.38$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.2817155%94 W · 77 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bd4…6eafbacked USA77c202.98$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.021540%6 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Mexico6c200$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.31,45642.7%622 W · 834 L-39.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed USA80c200$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4095850%479 W · 479 L+4.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Mexico6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.59021.1%19 W · 71 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-51.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x30ef…70dfbacked Mexico19c200$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383447.1%16 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+34.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ca9…d946backed USA80c190.34$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd23…e31fbacked USA80c174.25$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.859455.3%52 W · 42 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Mexico21c170.2$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.742552%13 W · 12 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f90…a473backed USA76c160.83$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.61060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54ba…2a14backed Mexico21c158.81$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.352334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf36f…e5b8backed Mexico23c155.78$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb95…a5ccbacked USA80c150$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.21per pick58cpaid-42.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x63ad…790cbacked Mexico18c150$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c23…c9ddbacked Mexico12c140.87$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.