TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: 9z vs Alliance (BO3) - XSE Pro League Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
9zof 9z, Alliance
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$807,096
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$927,009

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $807,096 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 708 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x73e3…1be9backed 9z61c50,000$30,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,499.8320354.2%110 W · 93 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Alliance39c47,946$18,774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,773.935,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked 9z66c35,000$23,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,799.9675652.6%398 W · 358 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4fd…748bbacked Alliance39c25,055$9,851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,8513834.2%13 W · 25 L-4.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-30.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x79ae…9a4abacked Alliance46c23,234$10,688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,687.5314145.4%64 W · 77 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked 9z64c23,004$14,683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,320.8936453.8%196 W · 168 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Alliance27c19,973$5,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,343.861,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed 9z54c18,200$9,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,371.9833343.8%146 W · 187 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c82…1f13backed Alliance38c17,879$6,786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,785.6611758.1%68 W · 49 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Alliance38c14,864$5,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,680.082,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked 9z59c14,470$8,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,956.171,01152.3%529 W · 482 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked 9z62c14,032$8,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,332.2622354.7%122 W · 101 L-9.5wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Alliance13c13,339$1,716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,716.092,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Alliance38c12,749$4,845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,844.610850%54 W · 54 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9279…4748backed 9z68c11,795$8,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,774.5319057.9%110 W · 80 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe159…d987backed Alliance44c11,691$5,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,175.571040%4 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+49.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked 9z62c10,146$6,305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,841.0132348.9%158 W · 165 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Alliance41c10,000$4,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,079.4750054.4%272 W · 228 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6236…08d2backed Alliance39c9,355$3,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,676.426450%32 W · 32 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89eb…cff9backed 9z62c8,065$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,064.5236450.3%183 W · 181 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Alliance40c7,829$3,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,165.742,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xddc3…029cbacked 9z59c7,409$4,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,021.8692456.8%525 W · 399 L+2.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Alliance33c7,160$2,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,347.911,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2c9…2c23backed Alliance39c7,083$2,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,786.9619660.7%119 W · 77 L-13.9wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-7.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed 9z62c7,000$4,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6603652.8%19 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed 9z62c6,801$4,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,601.0848350.9%246 W · 237 L-20.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6902…b4cabacked 9z64c6,591$4,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,391.0325751.8%133 W · 124 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Alliance43c6,000$2,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,549.9897040.7%395 W · 575 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Alliance31c5,469$1,674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,674.415,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Alliance38c5,455$2,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,076.6266851.8%346 W · 322 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c52…1a59backed 9z56c5,200$2,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,300.239550.5%48 W · 47 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x81f4…8300backed 9z76c5,186$3,941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,244.637459.5%44 W · 30 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+21.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x495d…68d8backed 9z73c4,604$3,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,261.2517554.9%96 W · 79 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Alliance39c4,562$1,784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,784.2838841.8%162 W · 226 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Alliance38c4,271$1,623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,622.949047.8%43 W · 47 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed 9z62c4,187$2,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,588.5114846.6%69 W · 79 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb57e…ffe8backed 9z72c4,155$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,155.431631.3%5 W · 11 L-3.9wins-0.24per pick55cpaid-43.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd0ac…a2c9backed 9z74c4,043$2,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,051.185455.6%30 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fd0…4a43backed 9z60c4,008$2,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,603.39955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked 9z61c4,000$2,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,559.978051.3%41 W · 39 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedcc…41a1backed 9z61c3,878$2,361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,517.2221953.4%117 W · 102 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Alliance19c3,634$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$690.222,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Alliance25c3,633$907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$906.891,57929.7%469 W · 1,110 L-86.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x21b7…c861backed Alliance38c3,500$1,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,33011434.2%39 W · 75 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdec6…1d8ebacked Alliance44c3,500$1,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,534.998052.5%42 W · 38 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked Alliance28c3,448$955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$954.5863038.6%243 W · 387 L-26.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-26.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xae2b…9cc3backed 9z75c3,105$2,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$776.2521854.1%118 W · 100 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Alliance30c3,013$918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$918.321,84841.7%770 W · 1,078 L-69.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8adb…e4f6backed Alliance38c3,000$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,14029449.3%145 W · 149 L-10.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked 9z59c3,000$1,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,23032552.6%171 W · 154 L+11.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcaf…e271backed 9z63c3,000$1,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,109.9937946.4%176 W · 203 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Alliance39c2,799$1,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,091.612,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6ae…afe9backed Alliance40c2,670$1,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,06825440.6%103 W · 151 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed Alliance40c2,505$1,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,013.7946555.1%256 W · 209 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40e8…88a4backed 9z62c2,500$1,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95017162%106 W · 65 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb378…e4c0backed Alliance10c2,500$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24838312.8%49 W · 334 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-30.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4579…dfdfbacked 9z60c2,471$1,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$992.374042.5%17 W · 23 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-24.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0562…18a4backed 9z71c2,428$1,716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$712.2820448.5%99 W · 105 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Alliance30c2,089$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.3775438.9%293 W · 461 L-38.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb000…5ca6backed Alliance24c2,083$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5007342.5%31 W · 42 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x615d…bd5bbacked Alliance37c2,049$758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$758.155641.1%23 W · 33 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed Alliance50c2,020$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00019448.5%94 W · 100 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked 9z51c2,000$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98069624%167 W · 529 L+2.2wins0.00per pick24cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Alliance41c2,000$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8202,00953.9%1,082 W · 927 L+7.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24c7…77c4backed 9z61c2,000$1,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78018846.3%87 W · 101 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed Alliance1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205740%0 W · 574 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e7…24e8backed 9z59c1,991$1,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$815.83666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1d5…54d5backed 9z55c1,984$1,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$899.4141050.7%208 W · 202 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e7c…164dbacked Alliance38c1,979$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.3634943%150 W · 199 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cf1…fe72backed Alliance18c1,973$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2cc…893cbacked Alliance28c1,819$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.938941.9%163 W · 226 L-12.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbc8…4f5bbacked 9z64c1,812$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$652.4723244.8%104 W · 128 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed 9z65c1,810$1,177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633.3326360.8%160 W · 103 L-13.4wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x240b…c32abacked 9z66c1,806$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.5314543.4%63 W · 82 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-22.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb93b…4208backed 9z66c1,786$1,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602.1724339.5%96 W · 147 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Alliance31c1,771$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.522,34942.5%998 W · 1,351 L-72.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked 9z59c1,765$1,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$729.5320045%90 W · 110 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Alliance39c1,650$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.51,41133.7%475 W · 936 L+42.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4cfd…5c91backed Alliance26c1,600$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.9912627%34 W · 92 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-16.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x42a1…a8e9backed Alliance30c1,598$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.5627037.8%102 W · 168 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-26.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeebb…0b96backed 9z60c1,524$914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.5335839.4%141 W · 217 L+1.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a57…7b0abacked Alliance31c1,510$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.1622449.6%111 W · 113 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed Alliance40c1,500$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59514847.3%70 W · 78 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Alliance43c1,500$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.852,43444.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L-64.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21d6…86fdbacked 9z75c1,488$1,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.954257.1%24 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked 9z73c1,426$1,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.245,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed 9z63c1,392$881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.4380942.3%342 W · 467 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b59…3aa6backed Alliance36c1,363$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.1484958.3%495 W · 354 L+60.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xeb1f…6a93backed Alliance45c1,330$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.54839.6%19 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-0.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Alliance38c1,316$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.0717954.2%97 W · 82 L+0.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Alliance38c1,316$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50059755.4%331 W · 266 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked 9z68c1,315$894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.8666446.4%308 W · 356 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Alliance24c1,310$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.173,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7e4d…b4cabacked Alliance24c1,302$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.53531.4%11 W · 24 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-22.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed 9z55c1,260$693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.0660853.3%324 W · 284 L+20.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x774b…8c16backed Alliance39c1,213$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.06333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x930e…38cfbacked 9z51c1,203$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.9121522.3%48 W · 167 L-0.3wins0.00per pick22cpaid-45.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked 9z62c1,200$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45675245.5%342 W · 410 L-21.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14ca…8f43backed Alliance32c1,188$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.1613840.6%56 W · 82 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9929…15a8backed 9z73c1,160$845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.8417163.7%109 W · 62 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.