Us Politics · resolved market
Trump pauses any reciprocal tariff before Wednesday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa198b9fd539d7aeec2a8ecf5359b047a4cd5cbd2d765d9725219011de406929f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,730
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,117
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,730 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ef5…8898backed Yes | 7c | 3,878$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.51 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 20c | 3,141$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.18 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +9.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 6c | 2,732$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.25 | 88 | 20.5%18 W · 70 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes | 8c | 1,200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb78b…5d40backed Yes | 25c | 1,145$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.37 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fe…79c1backed Yes | 16c | 1,092$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 12c | 688$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.76 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6404…f250backed Yes | 9c | 664.86$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.97 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9af3…9215backed Yes | 11c | 575.36$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f6…cce7backed No | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b86…53d7backed No | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbd…ed66backed No | 74c | 460$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 4c | 411$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0d…3d14backed No | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 369.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x239a…a0c6backed No | 76c | 350$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed Yes | 4c | 342.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 75c | 310$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.6 | 144 | 60.4%87 W · 57 L | +16.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcc…5b93backed No | 74c | 292$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…2169backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6447…69b7backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38cc…f88ebacked Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe085…5474backed No | 79c | 186.53$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.17 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d5…709bbacked No | 74c | 171.69$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.06 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 151.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…30babacked No | 76c | 140$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x329f…ad50backed No | 76c | 134.96$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.39 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a36…0d0dbacked Yes | 11c | 127.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…baa2backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 76c | 123.33$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…9b7abacked No | 65c | 120.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…b40bbacked Yes | 17c | 120.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 12c | 119.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff4…b7c5backed Yes | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65e4…2420backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 138 | 18.1%25 W · 113 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9df…d8bcbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82e9…4614backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed No | 80c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +8.0wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +20%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe520…28b0backed No | 76c | 78.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9384…6cb4backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1977…32e8backed Yes | 21c | 63.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf162…ba35backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 22c | 59.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad6…464cbacked Yes | 24c | 55.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9b…534cbacked No | 77c | 52.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…5fd4backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked No | 80c | 37.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8773…c213backed No | 69c | 28.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b95…0190backed No | 80c | 25.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe4…71c8backed No | 80c | 22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8d…41acbacked No | 77c | 13.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.