Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa41f951efc1e5b86850859ed4cc20f2b7866fc1f0764afc0e6f79cdb16b40808
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,184
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,759
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,184 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 51c | 2,608$1,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,265.17 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 10c | 591.07$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.35 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 69c | 535.14$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.57 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 66c | 522.02$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.63 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Yes | 64c | 500$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.8 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 35c | 493$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.95 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 37c | 439.26$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.8 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7a…7be5backed No | 33c | 374.17$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.93 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 53c | 361$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.76 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 45c | 347.53$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.43 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd222…fe42backed No | 36c | 300.37$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 38c | 300.1$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.05 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe445…8750backed No | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -5.8wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x34c4…9c93backed No | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 64c | 296.6$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.37 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 36c | 289.17$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.71 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 58c | 257.73$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.73 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 256$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.8 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 255$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 40c | 243$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 51c | 240.57$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 7c | 236.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 31c | 231.05$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.54 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x687b…a490backed No | 36c | 227.97$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 60c | 221.1$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.18 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 37c | 220$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.71 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 61c | 210$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.54 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 50c | 207.78$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.76 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 33c | 202.38$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 197.93$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 24c | 194.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 17c | 193.32$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 47c | 175.27$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d8…29ecbacked Yes | 68c | 164$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +10.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 55c | 155.59$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.49 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 19c | 154.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 153.14$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd9…3c35backed No | 33c | 149.53$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.34 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 33c | 140.33$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.72 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 49c | 128.26$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.76 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc399…53abbacked No | 35c | 126.63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.59 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -8.5wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa46e…fec5backed Yes | 41c | 122.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.27 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 28c | 121.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 68c | 118.44$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 68c | 117.09$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 63c | 109.48$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 31c | 106$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x666d…340bbacked Yes | 65c | 104.53$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x414f…21afbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c54…02e9backed No | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…71a6backed No | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -6.6wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc002…6f57backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…866abacked No | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…4331backed No | 42c | 97.17$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.81 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 32c | 92.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 42c | 92.21$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.68 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed Yes | 59c | 89.59$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.31 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9819…fe16backed Yes | 64c | 86.17$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 61c | 83.4$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e97…96cebacked Yes | 48c | 83.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.09 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 44c | 82.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.03 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e3…c67fbacked No | 36c | 81.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 32c | 81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 62c | 77$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 45c | 77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 50c | 75.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfac…a4febacked Yes | 60c | 75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 58c | 61.21$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca06…b2c4backed Yes | 73c | 60.86$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x367c…8689backed Yes | 60c | 58.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 36c | 55.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2831…5473backed Yes | 60c | 55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e8…fdaabacked No | 33c | 51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e0…6392backed Yes | 65c | 50.77$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…5315backed Yes | 62c | 50.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 55c | 50.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e54…5f61backed Yes | 55c | 50.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…54acbacked Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f52…3785backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…c224backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7faa…c757backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…ec8ebacked No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98c…a75ebacked Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbab8…6485backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 60cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x040b…bbc5backed No | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…9e01backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…4cb7backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcae…1ea8backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 41c | 48.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 43c | 47.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed No | 57c | 47.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 42c | 46.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.