World Politics · resolved market
Will the Green Party win 2 seats in the next Canadian Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa570480c55bee30304e0190bbef141cbf12b8be3be9c7157d722e270412562cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,656
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,074
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,656 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 23c | 2,620$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.61 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 33c | 2,197$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.21 | 135 | 25.2%34 W · 101 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed No | 63c | 1,394$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.23 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 34c | 1,335$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.83 | 102 | 33.3%34 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,013$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…9862backed No | 65c | 875.54$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.19 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 554.01$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.61 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 30c | 526.38$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.63 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed No | 64c | 500$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 64c | 452$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.51 | 192 | 37.5%72 W · 120 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 33c | 333$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.51 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 28c | 264.98$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.95 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 67c | 229.89$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.05 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 32c | 214.5$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.64 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 33c | 198.78$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed1…cc85backed Yes | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 69c | 131.96$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 70c | 131$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.94 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 69c | 119.99$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 35c | 117.81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…c197backed Yes | 39c | 102.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.25 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03b3…d1d8backed Yes | 32c | 99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84dd…8701backed Yes | 37c | 86.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 77c | 84$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed No | 67c | 74.01$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa26…2f53backed No | 68c | 69$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 59cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 67c | 54.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…5a23backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 29c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 28c | 48.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7be7backed Yes | 25c | 44.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ff…136bbacked Yes | 32c | 34.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 101 | 31.7%32 W · 69 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…3636backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa9…e577backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 57c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -5.7wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 65c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a9…1afcbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Green Party win 2 seats in the next Canadian Election?this page
- Will the Green Party win 0 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Green Party win 1 seat in the next Canadian Election?Yes won
- Will the Green Party win 3 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Green Party win 4 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Green Party win 5 or more seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.