Champions League · resolved market
Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa61b3e544c9d620551ddf9a81c19dd8ad340cba98f4c73c5077f756a5532c4e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,681
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,899
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,681 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 5c | 4,242$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.09 | 601 | 36.9%222 W · 379 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 23c | 3,738$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.54 | 446 | 47.3%211 W · 235 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 7c | 3,068$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.23 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 8c | 2,500$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.55 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47d9…54b7backed Over | 5c | 2,059$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.76 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 5c | 1,428$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.42 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 21c | 1,273$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.29 | 915 | 37.6%344 W · 571 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67b0…89d3backed Under | 79c | 939$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.19 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03c9…d8c1backed Over | 14c | 884.35$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.81 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.5wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +97%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7c…4cbfbacked Over | 24c | 881.67$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 17c | 865.56$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.43 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +7.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 19c | 767.18$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.28 | 1,021 | 35.3%360 W · 661 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 6c | 728.21$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.31 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 7c | 706.15$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.26 | 245 | 45.3%111 W · 134 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e97…8ffabacked Over | 23c | 699.87$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.85 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefd3…bed8backed Over | 20c | 692.43$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…4f5bbacked Over | 8c | 681$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.08 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +98.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6102…1913backed Over | 23c | 583.41$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.95 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 74c | 574$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.27 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 4c | 573.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 21c | 568.36$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.44 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +20.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 16c | 555.13$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.72 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 79c | 418.57$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.85 | 230 | 31.7%73 W · 157 L | -18.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 23c | 404.11$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.68 | 382 | 53.9%206 W · 176 L | +21.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ea…9c73backed Over | 20c | 394.07$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.93 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +5.5wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 78c | 384.35$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.28 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e4…3876backed Under | 79c | 375.49$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.49 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Under | 78c | 355$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.58 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Under | 79c | 298$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.03 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 9c | 286.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 328 | 43.6%143 W · 185 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Over | 7c | 277$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61ad…74d3backed Over | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x395c…ad6fbacked Over | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 14c | 208.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 467 | 41.5%194 W · 273 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 21c | 166$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 520 | 46.7%243 W · 277 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 77c | 131.71$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.29 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -13.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 18c | 123.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 424 | 38%161 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 21c | 104.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 154 | 42.9%66 W · 88 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eba…c7d7backed Over | 23c | 101.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Over | 23c | 97.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 21c | 95.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 154 | 48.7%75 W · 79 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0daf…17a9backed Over | 20c | 90.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 22c | 69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 650 | 50.2%326 W · 324 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Under | 79c | 56.85$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -7.9wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 79c | 52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 886 | 31.7%281 W · 605 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Over | 24c | 44.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefe4…8f49backed Under | 78c | 41.77$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 77c | 38.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 381 | 42.8%163 W · 218 L | -22.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d2…c938backed Under | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 70cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4b…802bbacked Under | 73c | 24.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 4.5this page
- Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: FK Crvena zvezda O/U 1.5Over won
- Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: FK Crvena zvezda O/U 2.5Over won
- Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: Larne FC O/U 0.5Under won
- Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: Larne FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: Larne FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 0.5Over won
- Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 1.5Over won
- Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 2.5Over won
- Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 3.5Over won
- Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FK Crvena zvezda (-1.5)FK Crvena zvezda won
- Spread: FK Crvena zvezda (-2.5)FK Crvena zvezda won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.