Champions League · resolved market
Spread: FK Crvena zvezda (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ff9c331af2113634cc9e2a910a9d3d0cc0d90b1fb14d9fa5f28da82b63092c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FK Crvena zvezdaof FK Crvena zvezda, Larne FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,688
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,157
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,688 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed FK Crvena zvezda | 66c | 3,800$2,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,286.43 | 704 | 35.8%252 W · 452 L | -27.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed FK Crvena zvezda | 64c | 3,407$2,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,240.05 | 450 | 42%189 W · 261 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496b…79a8backed FK Crvena zvezda | 64c | 2,969$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,068.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1713…1986backed Larne FC | 39c | 2,563$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Larne FC | 35c | 2,251$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.72 | 362 | 48.6%176 W · 186 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Larne FC | 39c | 2,059$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.82 | 310 | 47.4%147 W · 163 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Larne FC | 38c | 1,679$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.81 | 329 | 44.7%147 W · 182 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed FK Crvena zvezda | 61c | 1,629$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.29 | 614 | 47.2%290 W · 324 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Larne FC | 32c | 1,016$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.52 | 1,959 | 44.1%863 W · 1,096 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked FK Crvena zvezda | 60c | 953.26$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.65 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Larne FC | 38c | 938.85$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.62 | 520 | 46.7%243 W · 277 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Larne FC | 32c | 883.25$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.68 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Larne FC | 40c | 755.01$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.13 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13e4…8b89backed FK Crvena zvezda | 66c | 643.52$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.08 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed FK Crvena zvezda | 63c | 492.45$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.48 | 294 | 45.9%135 W · 159 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…93d2backed FK Crvena zvezda | 66c | 445.64$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.54 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf83…3385backed FK Crvena zvezda | 63c | 440.43$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.68 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Larne FC | 36c | 400$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 415 | 53%220 W · 195 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Larne FC | 36c | 390$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.4 | 122 | 50.8%62 W · 60 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Larne FC | 34c | 348.65$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.5 | 377 | 53.8%203 W · 174 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Larne FC | 37c | 299.99$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 367 | 42.8%157 W · 210 L | -22.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed FK Crvena zvezda | 71c | 291.53$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.97 | 61 | 68.9%42 W · 19 L | +8.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Larne FC | 43c | 290.34$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed FK Crvena zvezda | 61c | 289.54$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.92 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed FK Crvena zvezda | 61c | 216.3$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.44 | 881 | 37.7%332 W · 549 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked FK Crvena zvezda | 61c | 207.08$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.46 | 224 | 52.2%117 W · 107 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…2aecbacked Larne FC | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed FK Crvena zvezda | 56c | 166.67$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…a736backed FK Crvena zvezda | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed FK Crvena zvezda | 74c | 145$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 313 | 42.5%133 W · 180 L | -15.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…2fc9backed FK Crvena zvezda | 69c | 145$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked FK Crvena zvezda | 72c | 138.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.71 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Larne FC | 37c | 137.84$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Larne FC | 46c | 116.72$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.78 | 606 | 48.3%293 W · 313 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1e…f992backed Larne FC | 31c | 106.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked FK Crvena zvezda | 65c | 105.29$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 1,487 | 40.3%599 W · 888 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Larne FC | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 97 | 43.3%42 W · 55 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5266…aac8backed FK Crvena zvezda | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked FK Crvena zvezda | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +62%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed FK Crvena zvezda | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3b…28bdbacked Larne FC | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Larne FC | 34c | 86.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 308 | 56.8%175 W · 133 L | +11.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed FK Crvena zvezda | 61c | 84.3$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 208 | 32.2%67 W · 141 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Larne FC | 35c | 76.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed FK Crvena zvezda | 67c | 75.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 298 | 58.4%174 W · 124 L | +17.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed FK Crvena zvezda | 61c | 69.42$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…9460backed Larne FC | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7224…0cd9backed FK Crvena zvezda | 61c | 61.64$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed FK Crvena zvezda | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed FK Crvena zvezda | 60c | 56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 631 | 50.2%317 W · 314 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Larne FC | 41c | 55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +217%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…5720backed FK Crvena zvezda | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 59cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked FK Crvena zvezda | 63c | 47.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Larne FC | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 101 | 64.4%65 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8e…3dc3backed Larne FC | 38c | 39.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed FK Crvena zvezda | 62c | 38.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 875 | 31.1%272 W · 603 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed FK Crvena zvezda | 64c | 37.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 73 | 63%46 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Larne FC | 34c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6458…2a3bbacked Larne FC | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74d8…3b2bbacked FK Crvena zvezda | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf786…25fbbacked Larne FC | 35c | 32.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked FK Crvena zvezda | 69c | 30.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked FK Crvena zvezda | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…932fbacked Larne FC | 40c | 29.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked FK Crvena zvezda | 64c | 27.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36fe…b131backed FK Crvena zvezda | 62c | 25.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5111…a164backed Larne FC | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x266c…6963backed FK Crvena zvezda | 61c | 22.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FK Crvena zvezda (-1.5)this page
- Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: FK Crvena zvezda O/U 1.5Over won
- Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: FK Crvena zvezda O/U 2.5Over won
- Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: Larne FC O/U 0.5Under won
- Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: Larne FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: Larne FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 0.5Over won
- Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 1.5Over won
- Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 2.5Over won
- Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 3.5Over won
- Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 4.5Under won
- Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FK Crvena zvezda (-2.5)FK Crvena zvezda won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.