Spread: FK Crvena zvezda (-2.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f2aae4c1cd7e293ce2d0b95b47aef6d327ecfbd73d9c2010ccbdefab7cf463d

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: FK Crvena zvezdaof FK Crvena zvezda, Larne FC
Resolved: Jul 21, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $39,956
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $50,382

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,956 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Champions League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc3ed…9f79backed FK Crvena zvezda	41c	7,448$3,034 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,413.96	24	58.3%14 W · 10 L	+1.3wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd0b…c5ffbacked FK Crvena zvezda	37c	2,702$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,701.76	34	55.9%19 W · 15 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Larne FC	61c	2,500$1,517 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,516.79	310	47.4%147 W · 163 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Larne FC	52c	1,594$833 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$833.39	881	37.7%332 W · 549 L	+29.7wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed FK Crvena zvezda	40c	1,509$597 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$911.55	614	47.2%290 W · 324 L	-14.6wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Larne FC	60c	1,429$851 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$851.4	415	53%220 W · 195 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Larne FC	59c	1,000$590 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$590	346	42.2%146 W · 200 L	-15.7wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6553…7a71backed FK Crvena zvezda	39c	829.18$323 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$505.8	99	47.5%47 W · 52 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Larne FC	52c	800.31$416 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$416.03	362	48.6%176 W · 186 L	+17.3wins	+0.05per pick	44cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Larne FC	64c	790.29$506 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$505.79	36	61.1%22 W · 14 L	+4.7wins	+0.13per pick	48cpaid	+52.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Larne FC	59c	523.02$310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$309.65	520	46.7%243 W · 277 L	+2.9wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Larne FC	60c	500$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	38	57.9%22 W · 16 L	+4.0wins	+0.11per pick	47cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed FK Crvena zvezda	34c	431.11$147 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$283.68	450	42%189 W · 261 L	+2.9wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8492…f17cbacked FK Crvena zvezda	56c	416.07$233 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$183.07	36	55.6%20 W · 16 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Larne FC	63c	403.99$256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255.65	1,959	44.1%863 W · 1,096 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed FK Crvena zvezda	36c	393.72$142 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$251.98	53	64.2%34 W · 19 L	+8.6wins	+0.16per pick	48cpaid	+25.8%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Larne FC	59c	390$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.1	122	50.8%62 W · 60 L	+4.7wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+21.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf786…25fbbacked Larne FC	58c	388.2$224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$223.78	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Larne FC	61c	371.38$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.54	329	44.7%147 W · 182 L	-6.6wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed FK Crvena zvezda	73c	337.49$247 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.73	208	32.2%67 W · 141 L	-17.3wins	-0.08per pick	41cpaid	-43.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x993c…2aecbacked Larne FC	6c	333.3$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked FK Crvena zvezda	40c	324.59$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$195	224	52.2%117 W · 107 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Larne FC	60c	300$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	367	42.8%157 W · 210 L	-22.6wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Larne FC	61c	230.05$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.26	704	35.8%252 W · 452 L	-27.1wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2bc4…3955backed Larne FC	61c	200$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-2.0wins	-0.29per pick	57cpaid	-48.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5f84…67efbacked FK Crvena zvezda	35c	200$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$130	56	35.7%20 W · 36 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	32cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Larne FC	33c	188.46$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.1	43	30.2%13 W · 30 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Larne FC	17c	177.44$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.44	412	38.8%160 W · 252 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2546…5155backed Larne FC	67c	170$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.9	31	35.5%11 W · 20 L	-4.3wins	-0.14per pick	49cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5968…96f0backed Larne FC	64c	151.98$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.27	55	49.1%27 W · 28 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked FK Crvena zvezda	74c	147$109 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.99	163	50.9%83 W · 80 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Larne FC	61c	139.48$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.7	875	31.1%272 W · 603 L	-13.3wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1c…ca9dbacked FK Crvena zvezda	58c	134.48$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.48	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.6wins	+0.33per pick	47cpaid	+83.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc59…35f7backed FK Crvena zvezda	39c	128.21$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.21	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+1.7wins	+0.15per pick	40cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Larne FC	64c	124.96$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.93	313	42.5%133 W · 180 L	-15.2wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3d3b…28bdbacked Larne FC	61c	103.31$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	95	49.5%47 W · 48 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ad3…1af6backed FK Crvena zvezda	39c	102.56$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.56	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.9wins	+0.10per pick	34cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf908…0aafbacked FK Crvena zvezda	39c	102.56$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.56	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+2.2wins	+0.27per pick	48cpaid	+39.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xaef0…b68abacked FK Crvena zvezda	57c	99.96$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.98	8	87.5%7 W · 1 L	+2.6wins	+0.33per pick	54cpaid	+84.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x10ff…ff77backed Larne FC	56c	84$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.04	97	47.4%46 W · 51 L	+5.4wins	+0.06per pick	42cpaid	+10%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x747f…f2d7backed FK Crvena zvezda	45c	77$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.35	42	54.8%23 W · 19 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a6a…56bdbacked FK Crvena zvezda	39c	76$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.37	26	30.8%8 W · 18 L	-3.2wins	-0.12per pick	43cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2e7c…164dbacked Larne FC	61c	69$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.09	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.09per pick	47cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dc4…4870backed FK Crvena zvezda	38c	66.62$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.3	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x153a…af29backed FK Crvena zvezda	60c	65$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26	18	66.7%12 W · 6 L	+3.7wins	+0.21per pick	46cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Larne FC	57c	61.98$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.33	402	50.7%204 W · 198 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked FK Crvena zvezda	73c	59$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.84	81	44.4%36 W · 45 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0aa7…8332backed FK Crvena zvezda	39c	51.28$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.28	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+1.0wins	+0.20per pick	40cpaid	+22.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2175…4b33backed FK Crvena zvezda	39c	51.28$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.28	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62cd…7b19backed FK Crvena zvezda	39c	51.28$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.28	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.2wins	+0.20per pick	47cpaid	+29.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7079…58e8backed FK Crvena zvezda	58c	50.91$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.38	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x74d8…3b2bbacked Larne FC	61c	49.56$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-2.6wins	-0.24per pick	60cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x927c…a79abacked FK Crvena zvezda	39c	47.33$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.87	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	+28.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d10…780bbacked FK Crvena zvezda	33c	45.45$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.45	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-1.2wins	-0.09per pick	48cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x39b2…9460backed Larne FC	67c	44.75$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.98	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	+55.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Larne FC	42c	42$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.64	994	35%348 W · 646 L	-10.9wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8eb…0acbbacked Larne FC	60c	41.67$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	43	53.5%23 W · 20 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed FK Crvena zvezda	39c	38.64$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.57	107	43.9%47 W · 60 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed FK Crvena zvezda	38c	38.49$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.77	606	48.3%293 W · 313 L	-1.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed FK Crvena zvezda	39c	35.08$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.4	294	45.9%135 W · 159 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x653b…685ebacked Larne FC	60c	33.2$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	64cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Larne FC	57c	32.83$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.71	489	47.6%233 W · 256 L	-7.8wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeda9…f624backed Larne FC	61c	31.82$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.41	43	55.8%24 W · 19 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	59cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc036…30d4backed Larne FC	65c	30.77$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	71	49.3%35 W · 36 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4993…553fbacked Larne FC	56c	29.18$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.46	63	57.1%36 W · 27 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked FK Crvena zvezda	73c	29$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.83	84	40.5%34 W · 50 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed FK Crvena zvezda	43c	28.44$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.26	298	58.4%174 W · 124 L	+17.7wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+10%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x576c…f218backed Larne FC	64c	28.06$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.91	101	64.4%65 W · 36 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	64cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2892…e9d7backed Larne FC	59c	25.92$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.29	80	53.8%43 W · 37 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd443…5f71backed FK Crvena zvezda	39c	25.65$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.65	147	42.9%63 W · 84 L	-7.2wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1200…7813backed Larne FC	65c	25$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.25	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.30per pick	63cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e8b…1b3abacked Larne FC	61c	24.59$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cef…2c8dbacked Larne FC	53c	20.36$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.79	34	50%17 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked FK Crvena zvezda	74c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.2	242	45.9%111 W · 131 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed Larne FC	60c	20$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.9	62	59.7%37 W · 25 L	+4.6wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+20.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0464…67dabacked Larne FC	61c	18.62$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.33	100	45%45 W · 55 L	-6.7wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Larne FC	58c	18$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.49	100	51%51 W · 49 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: FK Crvena zvezda (-2.5)this page
Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: FK Crvena zvezda O/U 1.5Over won
Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: FK Crvena zvezda O/U 2.5Over won
Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: Larne FC O/U 0.5Under won
Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: Larne FC O/U 1.5Under won
Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: Larne FC O/U 2.5Under won
Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 0.5Over won
Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 1.5Over won
Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 2.5Over won
Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 3.5Over won
Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 4.5Under won
Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 5.5Under won
Spread: FK Crvena zvezda (-1.5)FK Crvena zvezda won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: FK Crvena zvezda (-2.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event