Champions League · resolved market
Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa98e6ce83077d126244c229444a3c6a10b04b0f1b6c24a95f3e4c725606de309
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,699
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,034
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,699 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 75c | 704.14$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.13 | 2,025 | 43.7%884 W · 1,141 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 61c | 406.89$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.73 | 664 | 46.2%307 W · 357 L | -22.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 38c | 350$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.2 | 968 | 37.4%362 W · 606 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 28c | 299.59$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.22 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x834c…593abacked Yes | 12c | 286.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d4…ee54backed No | 75c | 244$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +103.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 61c | 235.96$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.02 | 454 | 52%236 W · 218 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed Yes | 26c | 199.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.28per pick | 51cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 62c | 189.2$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.61 | 225 | 52%117 W · 108 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65fa…4c6abacked No | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 39c | 134.16$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.32 | 398 | 49.2%196 W · 202 L | +19.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 66c | 111.5$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.03 | 611 | 48.3%295 W · 316 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked No | 64c | 103$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.04 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Yes | 40c | 101.27$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 79 | 41.8%33 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 36c | 101$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 369 | 42.5%157 W · 212 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 394 | 42.9%169 W · 225 L | -23.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 61c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 316 | 56.6%179 W · 137 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a6…71bdbacked No | 62c | 75.85$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 25c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Yes | 25c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 39c | 72.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 910 | 32.6%297 W · 613 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…9460backed Yes | 33c | 71.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed Yes | 34c | 63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.31per pick | 50cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Yes | 29c | 41.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc73a…ba42backed No | 80c | 40.72$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x010c…a158backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ee…c9cdbacked No | 61c | 37.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 33c | 36.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab2…66cdbacked Yes | 39c | 33.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f2…131dbacked Yes | 41c | 31.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 59c | 26.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 472 | 46.8%221 W · 251 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x296d…6020backed No | 76c | 16.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…f1b8backed No | 75c | 14.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: FK Crvena zvezda O/U 1.5Over won
- Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: FK Crvena zvezda O/U 2.5Over won
- Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: Larne FC O/U 0.5Under won
- Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: Larne FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: Larne FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 0.5Over won
- Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 1.5Over won
- Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 2.5Over won
- Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 3.5Over won
- Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 4.5Under won
- Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FK Crvena zvezda (-1.5)FK Crvena zvezda won
- Spread: FK Crvena zvezda (-2.5)FK Crvena zvezda won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.