TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

NBA Summer League: Minnesota Timberwolves vs. LA Clippers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
LA Clippersof Minnesota Timberwolves, LA Clippers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$203,840
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$216,460

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $203,840 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Minnesota Timberwolves0c69,664$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.661,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Minnesota Timberwolves22c20,000$4,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,372.3938248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Minnesota Timberwolves7c18,012$1,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,295.161,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed LA Clippers58c14,714$8,561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,153.142842.5%182 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f03…766dbacked Minnesota Timberwolves46c10,711$4,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,9504946.9%23 W · 26 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Minnesota Timberwolves0c8,321$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.765502.5%14 W · 536 L+2.2wins0.00per pick2cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Minnesota Timberwolves46c5,622$2,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,582.8311160.4%67 W · 44 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1852…cb4ebacked Minnesota Timberwolves43c3,000$1,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,303.658230.5%25 W · 57 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked LA Clippers58c2,469$1,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,041.5222753.3%121 W · 106 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+2.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked LA Clippers68c2,348$1,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751.411,20051.6%619 W · 581 L+66.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x37e2…4b92backed LA Clippers51c2,164$1,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,059.5114042.9%60 W · 80 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…1d79backed Minnesota Timberwolves44c2,123$944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$944.028756.3%49 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3d3…bb8ebacked Minnesota Timberwolves46c2,078$946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945.7962652.2%327 W · 299 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Minnesota Timberwolves24c1,644$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.836023.1%83 W · 277 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-49.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked LA Clippers54c999.99$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46025651.2%131 W · 125 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Minnesota Timberwolves31c918.95$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.5521443.9%94 W · 120 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Minnesota Timberwolves11c800$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked LA Clippers66c526.91$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.448654.7%47 W · 39 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked LA Clippers55c506.92$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.6525954.4%141 W · 118 L+34.1wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+68.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Minnesota Timberwolves19c492.5$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.331,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed LA Clippers55c467.4$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.331,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43fe…26eebacked Minnesota Timberwolves21c455.86$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.34057.5%23 W · 17 L+4.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+24.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd13e…ed01backed Minnesota Timberwolves32c451.79$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27d2…a66cbacked Minnesota Timberwolves9c444.79$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3821450%107 W · 107 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked LA Clippers54c391$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.866,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48ec…8f36backed LA Clippers41c364$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.44734%16 W · 31 L-4.5wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf39d…aa9dbacked Minnesota Timberwolves8c312.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked LA Clippers68c300$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.8314357.3%82 W · 61 L+9.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x701c…b953backed Minnesota Timberwolves25c300$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4b2…1c67backed Minnesota Timberwolves50c299.99$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1499353.8%50 W · 43 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd74…00a1backed LA Clippers65c295.85$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.26250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-22.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8027…2ee8backed Minnesota Timberwolves34c281.68$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.211030%3 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-34.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fe8…72bcbacked LA Clippers55c281.18$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.58580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.35per pick45cpaid+99.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd9af…359cbacked LA Clippers55c279.42$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.744100%4 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+124.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed LA Clippers56c277.84$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.918,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd928…705fbacked LA Clippers55c277.36$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.973100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+133.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked LA Clippers54c276$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.961752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed LA Clippers52c270.68$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.9315543.9%68 W · 87 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Minnesota Timberwolves37c266.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10025945.6%118 W · 141 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8f4…6794backed LA Clippers55c249.75$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.39580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+33.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Minnesota Timberwolves45c224.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10031249.4%154 W · 158 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3f8…e0b1backed Minnesota Timberwolves45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002450%12 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+28.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4dd2…9014backed LA Clippers56c220.17$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.4118147.5%86 W · 95 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf30…5c23backed LA Clippers54c219$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.74366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+17.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36e3…daf8backed Minnesota Timberwolves19c214.82$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.271030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-35.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d24…f379backed LA Clippers67c213.23$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.223100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+81.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8849…9a83backed Minnesota Timberwolves36c207.17$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.3456154.5%306 W · 255 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf990…88bcbacked Minnesota Timberwolves43c204.29$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.845143.1%22 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+22.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f16…553dbacked Minnesota Timberwolves44c202.4$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9027145.4%123 W · 148 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3679…492ebacked LA Clippers53c197.42$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.07475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.39per pick36cpaid+103.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbc6…9092backed Minnesota Timberwolves46c195.91$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902213.6%3 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick23cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd072…95e8backed Minnesota Timberwolves46c180.37$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.49250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-28.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c5b…54f5backed LA Clippers64c155.18$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.33666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+28.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b23…331cbacked Minnesota Timberwolves47c152.41$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8845…360ebacked LA Clippers65c151$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.58560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+25.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38fa…87b5backed Minnesota Timberwolves43c145.64$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.1933632.4%109 W · 227 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad0b…a514backed Minnesota Timberwolves47c139.3$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.1666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+33.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a4b…a0c7backed LA Clippers72c139$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.182638.5%10 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Minnesota Timberwolves44c138.32$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.862339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed LA Clippers56c129.23$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.0533356.2%187 W · 146 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x273d…fb63backed LA Clippers55c127.96$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.761291.7%11 W · 1 L+4.0wins+0.33per pick59cpaid+65.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked LA Clippers55c126.8$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.0632045.3%145 W · 175 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x037d…22a4backed Minnesota Timberwolves14c123.58$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.481154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.23per pick32cpaid+46.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc806…57c6backed Minnesota Timberwolves21c115$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1530%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3bba…a2eabacked Minnesota Timberwolves45c111.71$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.712751.9%14 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a40…f518backed LA Clippers48c108.33$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.332429.2%7 W · 17 L-4.5wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-35.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8b89…9f72backed LA Clippers60c103.75$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.171154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed LA Clippers58c103.59$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.2221848.2%105 W · 113 L+11.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+0.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf213…a627backed Minnesota Timberwolves31c103.23$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3220237.1%75 W · 127 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked LA Clippers69c103.14$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.955076%38 W · 12 L+8.5wins+0.17per pick59cpaid+21.7%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x7a3f…6712backed LA Clippers27c100$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.94663%29 W · 17 L+6.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+43.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2d29…f683backed LA Clippers50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506955.1%38 W · 31 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb07…e2ccbacked LA Clippers54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.53348.5%16 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Minnesota Timberwolves39c98.53$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.051,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56fb…3a1bbacked LA Clippers78c95.1$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.451637.5%6 W · 10 L-3.6wins-0.22per pick60cpaid-42.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked Minnesota Timberwolves44c94.81$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.283764.9%24 W · 13 L+6.3wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+48.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Minnesota Timberwolves19c94.08$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.418140.3%73 W · 108 L+24.4wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+60.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xd4b6…5858backed Minnesota Timberwolves20c90.63$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-24.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeec3…6bd2backed LA Clippers77c90$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.152857.1%16 W · 12 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+21.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x27a4…d44cbacked LA Clippers58c86.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.211346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick60cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed LA Clippers69c85$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.224937.3%93 W · 156 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-35%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed LA Clippers56c80.18$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.9130945.3%140 W · 169 L-0.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7ff…8a60backed LA Clippers50c75$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.5580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+65.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb3dd…81b2backed LA Clippers70c70.02$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.29683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.35per pick48cpaid+83.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked LA Clippers68c70$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.59851%50 W · 48 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4037…143bbacked LA Clippers76c69.09$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.651376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick65cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9d4…f843backed LA Clippers58c68.92$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.952055%11 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+12.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x807f…9615backed Minnesota Timberwolves49c64.4$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.561560%9 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+20.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x999a…9a25backed LA Clippers61c61$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.52781.5%22 W · 5 L+5.9wins+0.22per pick60cpaid+31.4%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x7cea…371bbacked Minnesota Timberwolves50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304461.4%27 W · 17 L+7.0wins+0.16per pick45cpaid+50.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked LA Clippers68c55$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.549853.1%52 W · 46 L+9.3wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+8.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed LA Clippers41c54.38$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321540%6 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked LA Clippers57c51.7$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.231,57353.4%840 W · 733 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0182…301cbacked LA Clippers69c51.65$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.14057.5%23 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42b7…5cd6backed Minnesota Timberwolves30c50.34$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick41cpaid+37%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe4f…6d4bbacked LA Clippers60c50.25$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.25450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f79…0307backed Minnesota Timberwolves36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183737.8%14 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed LA Clippers54c47.01$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.7659743.6%260 W · 337 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01ee…fc4bbacked LA Clippers57c45.39$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.522254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a62…fc1abacked Minnesota Timberwolves33c45.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151540%6 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+26.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.