TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
BIGof MIBR, BIG
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$951,830
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,013,218

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $951,830 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 728 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1136…0c2ebacked BIG51c200,000$101,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98,499.8514050.7%71 W · 69 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73e3…1be9backed MIBR49c139,160$68,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68,296.7620354.2%110 W · 93 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe015…6ffdbacked MIBR49c58,277$28,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,555.6715245.4%69 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed MIBR49c48,858$23,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,940.6541649.8%207 W · 209 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed MIBR23c43,744$10,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,018.481,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed BIG52c40,000$20,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,20050054.4%272 W · 228 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked BIG50c35,000$17,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,50075652.6%398 W · 358 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked MIBR48c35,000$16,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,799.9976058%441 W · 319 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed MIBR50c33,200$16,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,60023839.9%95 W · 143 L-11.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb85…152fbacked MIBR50c30,000$15,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,00016443.9%72 W · 92 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe40e…9770backed BIG51c30,000$15,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,70017951.4%92 W · 87 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked BIG75c29,005$21,713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,292.3314947.7%71 W · 78 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf886…2620backed BIG70c24,419$17,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,226.7610359.2%61 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked BIG51c20,015$10,208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,807.485,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f45…a77abacked MIBR50c20,000$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00021251.4%109 W · 103 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8ff…473dbacked BIG51c17,500$8,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,599.972458.3%14 W · 10 L+4.0wins+0.17per pick42cpaid+37.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed MIBR17c15,881$2,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,70430340.3%122 W · 181 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed BIG50c15,272$7,647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,624.852,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed BIG50c11,111$5,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,555.588242.3%373 W · 509 L-13.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9c4…7433backed BIG50c10,358$5,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,178.913244.7%59 W · 73 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9854…6bf2backed BIG69c10,092$6,964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,128.6710361.2%63 W · 40 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+4.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa41c…fadebacked MIBR49c10,000$4,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,9007646.1%35 W · 41 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+3.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf559…f462backed MIBR50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00019055.8%106 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac75…1319backed BIG51c10,000$5,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,90016449.4%81 W · 83 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed MIBR48c10,000$4,846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,845.8375450.5%381 W · 373 L+17.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked BIG50c9,000$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,50036152.6%190 W · 171 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbb…9a17backed MIBR49c8,939$4,414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,413.815947.8%76 W · 83 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4f8…4de0backed BIG50c8,844$4,422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,4221650%8 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked BIG51c8,373$4,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,102.9836453.8%196 W · 168 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed BIG50c8,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,00011638.8%45 W · 71 L-7.3wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed BIG50c8,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,00071645.9%329 W · 387 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a57…7b0abacked MIBR20c7,200$1,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,458.1622449.6%111 W · 113 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked MIBR49c7,173$3,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,48532542.2%137 W · 188 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f1…dcbebacked BIG51c7,110$3,662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,448.391533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-34.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf1a…ba1ebacked BIG50c7,000$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,5004544.4%20 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed MIBR50c6,200$3,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,10048350.9%246 W · 237 L-20.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaebf…e1cabacked MIBR49c6,194$3,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,065.4435940.4%145 W · 214 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b59…3aa6backed BIG53c6,102$3,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,868.9984958.3%495 W · 354 L+60.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed BIG50c6,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,00078639.4%310 W · 476 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked MIBR50c6,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00028538.2%109 W · 176 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x310d…d698backed MIBR47c5,656$2,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6503842.1%16 W · 22 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-19.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ef8…8712backed MIBR32c5,613$1,789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,788.735347.2%25 W · 28 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed MIBR20c5,552$1,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,119.3688746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96f7…d6aebacked MIBR6c5,375$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.5422129.9%66 W · 155 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84a2…e0b6backed BIG51c5,125$2,613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5111457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48e0…826dbacked MIBR42c5,079$2,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1159454.3%51 W · 43 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcaf…e271backed MIBR49c5,000$2,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,45037946.4%176 W · 203 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31d6…e66cbacked MIBR50c5,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5001136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick43cpaid+48.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d9b…a5ebbacked MIBR50c5,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5004946.9%23 W · 26 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked MIBR49c5,000$2,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,449.9812956.6%73 W · 56 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a6e…b5bcbacked BIG51c4,902$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,401.962744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked MIBR24c4,889$1,179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,178.691,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked MIBR25c4,874$1,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,239.451,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed BIG51c4,700$2,397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,30323848.3%115 W · 123 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1437…3553backed MIBR50c4,600$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,300966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked MIBR50c4,501$2,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,250.521655.1%119 W · 97 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x83b3…b3a2backed MIBR49c4,430$2,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,170.4618547%87 W · 98 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf054…eae7backed MIBR50c4,128$2,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0646737.3%25 W · 42 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3da8…80c3backed MIBR50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00033359.8%199 W · 134 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed BIG50c4,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,00026952.8%142 W · 127 L+12.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0336…4bb0backed BIG51c3,960$2,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,940.36450%32 W · 32 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf2a…5ae1backed BIG51c3,922$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,921.5712955%71 W · 58 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed BIG51c3,920$1,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,920.860248.7%293 W · 309 L+0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked BIG51c3,588$1,818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,770.283455.9%19 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed BIG52c3,500$1,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,68066851.8%346 W · 322 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa0b…2debbacked MIBR31c3,478$1,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,06535745.4%162 W · 195 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked MIBR8c3,237$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.245,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x972f…65bdbacked MIBR49c3,206$1,571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,57139157.5%225 W · 166 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf490…63afbacked MIBR44c3,136$1,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,371.87536%27 W · 48 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked MIBR45c3,113$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,40081751.7%422 W · 395 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f63…f247backed MIBR32c3,106$985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985.4515052.7%79 W · 71 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5ac…2a18backed MIBR50c3,026$1,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,504.3125147.8%120 W · 131 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed BIG50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50014950.3%75 W · 74 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed BIG50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50017045.9%78 W · 92 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked MIBR50c2,990$1,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4951,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf33…0353backed BIG67c2,985$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$985.079746.4%45 W · 52 L+0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfed6…bb83backed MIBR47c2,573$1,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,205.81966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed BIG51c2,500$1,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,224.971,08150.9%550 W · 531 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked BIG60c2,483$1,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$983.91,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x689c…6b1ebacked BIG55c2,335$1,281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,054.4627552%143 W · 132 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7786…c005backed MIBR46c2,297$1,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,064.1222342.2%94 W · 129 L-13.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe5c1…7487backed MIBR41c2,192$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90016732.9%55 W · 112 L-9.8wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-25.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x15e4…7ba4backed MIBR32c2,178$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69711843.2%51 W · 67 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba5e…f9c4backed MIBR14c2,143$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3006546.2%30 W · 35 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf36e…f91cbacked MIBR47c2,131$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00029839.3%117 W · 181 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed MIBR50c2,112$1,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05685446.4%396 W · 458 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked MIBR25c2,068$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.382,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5efd…a583backed BIG51c2,033$1,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$996944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9625…5bb7backed MIBR50c2,010$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0055459.3%32 W · 22 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4c5…378abacked MIBR31c2,000$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6202268.2%15 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb9b…6df8backed MIBR39c2,000$785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78555845.7%255 W · 303 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed BIG51c2,000$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98046749.7%232 W · 235 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked BIG79c2,000$1,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.872,62247.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L-33.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b4c…1715backed MIBR4c1,950$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.9542427.1%115 W · 309 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfa5…9de3backed MIBR38c1,914$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7262065%13 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+22.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked MIBR49c1,874$918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$918.2342440.3%171 W · 253 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed MIBR48c1,846$886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$886.0813049.2%64 W · 66 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed BIG50c1,800$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90013732.1%44 W · 93 L-11.2wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-21%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7767…4fb2backed BIG57c1,776$1,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$756.312259.8%73 W · 49 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x174f…2dabbacked BIG51c1,742$888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$853.56955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.