TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs G2 (BO3) - Roman Imperium Cup Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
BetBoom Teamof BetBoom Team, G2
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$292,233
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$312,420

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $292,233 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 414 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x21ec…5348backed G269c30,937$21,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,266.872453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed BetBoom Team39c13,486$5,303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,182.86,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked BetBoom Team27c8,983$2,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,528.547,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked G274c8,850$6,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,523.3320458.3%119 W · 85 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6978…9897backed G258c8,717$5,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,034.4512449.2%61 W · 63 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-9.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7600…4478backed BetBoom Team26c7,971$2,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,898.528248.9%138 W · 144 L+21.4wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+17.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdd92…6b2abacked G273c7,701$5,622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,621.517147.9%34 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9db8…2effbacked BetBoom Team42c7,464$3,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,325.413043.1%56 W · 74 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed BetBoom Team29c6,851$2,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,840.054264.3%27 W · 15 L+5.8wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+29.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed BetBoom Team37c6,403$2,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,050.4857358.8%337 W · 236 L+16.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b59…3aa6backed BetBoom Team51c5,444$2,756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,687.6884958.3%495 W · 354 L+60.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6e34…20dabacked G273c5,279$3,845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,845.2820%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed G21c5,112$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.44520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-71.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed BetBoom Team43c4,931$2,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,828.91,61846.8%758 W · 860 L-28.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca40…83f6backed BetBoom Team49c4,843$2,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,466.983324.2%8 W · 25 L-6.3wins-0.19per pick43cpaid-51.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x7c5a…ff9fbacked G270c4,562$3,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,201.974548.9%22 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x454f…7642backed G274c3,860$2,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,863.02850%4 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5674…8b14backed BetBoom Team28c3,540$1,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,535.0236742.8%157 W · 210 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bdd…1b11backed BetBoom Team26c3,374$892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,482.3322045.5%100 W · 120 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed BetBoom Team26c3,097$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,306.631,41133.7%475 W · 936 L+42.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed BetBoom Team27c3,060$823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,237.682,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6aa0…b8a3backed BetBoom Team28c2,988$836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,151.98450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+31.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked G273c2,844$2,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,076.3728538.2%109 W · 176 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaebf…e1cabacked BetBoom Team27c2,767$747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,019.8335940.4%145 W · 214 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3db4…d69bbacked G255c2,586$1,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,422.375056.8%426 W · 324 L+47.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed G245c2,280$1,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,027.9781843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked G258c2,265$1,311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,310.653,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked BetBoom Team37c2,127$787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,339.661,39848.4%676 W · 722 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf743…1811backed BetBoom Team32c2,124$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,448.9329831.5%94 W · 204 L-16.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-29.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked G270c2,121$1,484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,484.4642440.3%171 W · 253 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1064…f153backed G272c2,096$1,512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,512.416149.1%79 W · 82 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked BetBoom Team29c2,078$603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,475.211,57335.3%556 W · 1,017 L+22.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed BetBoom Team26c2,015$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,492.1375450.5%381 W · 373 L+17.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ae8…c9a3backed BetBoom Team50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000.02757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3d5…beefbacked BetBoom Team29c1,971$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,393.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+241.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed BetBoom Team28c1,968$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,421.6561837.9%234 W · 384 L-22.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1ae…f001backed BetBoom Team26c1,900$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,405.8111637.9%44 W · 72 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfcd4…39b8backed BetBoom Team27c1,888$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,384.686637.9%25 W · 41 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4de…0da4backed G274c1,884$1,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,401.2533960.8%206 W · 133 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ef2…79f9backed BetBoom Team33c1,862$622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,240.011020%2 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-50.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed G253c1,835$967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$966.634,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed BetBoom Team27c1,830$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,335.8635236.4%128 W · 224 L-1.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…30d5backed G274c1,759$1,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,301.36246.8%29 W · 33 L-6.4wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-13.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked BetBoom Team22c1,747$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,354.415,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54ea…f74abacked G260c1,659$997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996.7525344.3%112 W · 141 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d22…4b50backed G264c1,600$1,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02420554.1%111 W · 94 L+17.3wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+65.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x236b…26b7backed BetBoom Team28c1,568$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,123.1933044.5%147 W · 183 L+7.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x417f…f97bbacked G273c1,559$1,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,143.25133.3%17 W · 34 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-38%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked BetBoom Team27c1,504$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,097.9264852%337 W · 311 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed BetBoom Team29c1,502$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,070.7756732.5%184 W · 383 L-30.0wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-36.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f45…d3b8backed BetBoom Team27c1,464$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,068.694261.9%26 W · 16 L+5.4wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+31.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x059e…54d1backed G272c1,459$1,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,047.725955.9%33 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick59cpaid+5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf301…4ce1backed BetBoom Team30c1,425$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$992.475543.6%24 W · 31 L+6.5wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+27.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3f05…a9b9backed G273c1,421$1,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,037.8627459.5%163 W · 111 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b36…b82ebacked BetBoom Team49c1,335$652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682.621533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-36.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked BetBoom Team35c1,301$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$847.6598052.4%514 W · 466 L+26.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed G253c1,294$681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.685,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked BetBoom Team23c1,269$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$974.7524538.4%94 W · 151 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1393…ba33backed G265c1,235$803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802.6916546.7%77 W · 88 L-0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed G265c1,211$785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$784.774,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddd3…dba6backed BetBoom Team30c1,199$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$835.2411252.7%59 W · 53 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed BetBoom Team25c1,152$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$865.6853444.9%240 W · 294 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1df4…0540backed BetBoom Team43c1,142$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$648.877958.2%46 W · 33 L-0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked G270c1,141$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$797.6644957.5%258 W · 191 L-19.7wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-5.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x86c8…fc02backed BetBoom Team32c1,135$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$768.255950.3%281 W · 278 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a84…dd32backed G265c1,132$737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.932020%4 W · 16 L-6.0wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-58.3%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x19b6…ad8ebacked BetBoom Team44c1,119$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$630.2219540%78 W · 117 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x701f…9b8fbacked BetBoom Team28c1,087$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$783.531323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-23.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9b8…50d8backed BetBoom Team65c1,008$652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.426050%30 W · 30 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked G272c1,008$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720.538358.7%225 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba4a…9fa6backed BetBoom Team50c998.19$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.1475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+40.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd5b…0e61backed G270c989.9$691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691.5540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed G274c988.46$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731.4624139%94 W · 147 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fdd…2fb9backed BetBoom Team30c987.93$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691.712100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+173.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e7c…164dbacked BetBoom Team30c987.4$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691.1834943%150 W · 199 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda7b…8857backed BetBoom Team39c975.9$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.284555.6%25 W · 20 L+5.4wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+15.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x24fe…30d5backed G252c953.35$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.633342.4%14 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc38d…850abacked G268c942.71$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.525569.1%38 W · 17 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaca0…9b86backed G252c938.31$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.529834.7%34 W · 64 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc939…6e0fbacked BetBoom Team32c926.28$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629.979044.4%40 W · 50 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed BetBoom Team34c915.88$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.9632042.5%136 W · 184 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked BetBoom Team27c914.98$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$667.9352636.5%192 W · 334 L+18.8wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf56d…9eeabacked G259c910.99$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.4814853.4%79 W · 69 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed BetBoom Team42c887.23$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.451,10950.5%560 W · 549 L-3.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca81…f2abbacked G261c849.99$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.4935744.3%158 W · 199 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab6a…3319backed G270c842.47$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.495858.6%34 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+15.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa932…3081backed G272c840.52$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.413363.6%21 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick59cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe53f…62d7backed BetBoom Team35c813.41$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.2842638%162 W · 264 L-8.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56b4…c4adbacked BetBoom Team18c799.98$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$655.9813845.7%63 W · 75 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed BetBoom Team27c749.99$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.5454032.4%175 W · 365 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x582a…ae39backed BetBoom Team27c746.81$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.177250%36 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9348…8cfbbacked BetBoom Team27c744.39$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.76647%31 W · 35 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ab6…078ebacked BetBoom Team30c736.46$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.0923952.3%125 W · 114 L+14.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x26ac…a735backed BetBoom Team25c730$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.524429.5%72 W · 172 L-0.3wins0.00per pick30cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fc2…64d1backed BetBoom Team18c702.77$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.6920942.1%88 W · 121 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a8c…f872backed G271c692.34$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.8717954.7%98 W · 81 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3045…8f78backed G272c686.84$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.9452456.3%295 W · 229 L-12.6wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed BetBoom Team29c681.81$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.4920440.7%83 W · 121 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xff96…027cbacked BetBoom Team24c663.95$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.651833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-19.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked BetBoom Team33c653.58$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.322,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.