Spread: Arsenal (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8f5cc5d878f892dbe6388e13304dc0d47b097e1297cb0a95d90543620b5b940

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Sunderland AFCof Arsenal, Sunderland AFC
Resolved: Nov 8, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $40,672
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $40,964

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,672 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Premier League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7087…c61fbacked Sunderland AFC	63c	5,000$3,150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,850	101	48.5%49 W · 52 L	-4.9wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Sunderland AFC	62c	5,000$3,100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,900	107	51.4%55 W · 52 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Sunderland AFC	65c	4,694$3,055 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,638.88	6,117	45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L	-28.6wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa987…141dbacked Arsenal	37c	4,615$1,708 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,707.55	30	60%18 W · 12 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	63cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7a7…d3abbacked Arsenal	32c	3,000$960 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$959.86	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+3.0wins	+0.19per pick	38cpaid	+59.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Sunderland AFC	61c	2,432$1,484 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$948.64	218	53.2%116 W · 102 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cf0…251cbacked Arsenal	38c	2,000$760 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$759.98	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Arsenal	31c	1,994$624 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$623.5	614	41.2%253 W · 361 L	-27.4wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe930…b44dbacked Arsenal	39c	1,808$710 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$710.42	45	28.9%13 W · 32 L	-3.0wins	-0.07per pick	36cpaid	-21%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x78ad…45ccbacked Sunderland AFC	63c	1,619$1,015 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$604.19	109	62.4%68 W · 41 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	62cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Sunderland AFC	58c	1,465$857 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$608.33	287	36.2%104 W · 183 L	-6.2wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-30%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed Arsenal	40c	1,264$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500.33	74	36.5%27 W · 47 L	-4.7wins	-0.06per pick	43cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x07dd…ed9dbacked Arsenal	39c	1,000$390 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$390	184	33.7%62 W · 122 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Sunderland AFC	64c	972.57$622 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$350.29	357	58%207 W · 150 L	+12.5wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x60d1…0c8fbacked Arsenal	40c	899.99$357 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$357	120	42.5%51 W · 69 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Arsenal	38c	717$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$274.94	200	39.5%79 W · 121 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1677…1126backed Arsenal	39c	709.98$276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$276.03	420	48.6%204 W · 216 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Sunderland AFC	56c	683.77$384 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$300.16	201	50.2%101 W · 100 L	-6.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc304…2c49backed Arsenal	24c	619$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.56	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+1.8wins	+0.18per pick	42cpaid	+35.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0cb6…3009backed Sunderland AFC	60c	577.54$347 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$231.02	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Sunderland AFC	55c	521.65$288 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$234	370	36.2%134 W · 236 L	-18.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Sunderland AFC	58c	505.8$296 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$209.92	1,264	33.7%426 W · 838 L	+13.1wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33a7…960dbacked Arsenal	27c	370.37$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	239	26.4%63 W · 176 L	-10.5wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x79e8…1969backed Arsenal	39c	307.18$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.8	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7eda…4bb7backed Sunderland AFC	62c	300$186 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$114	104	45.2%47 W · 57 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7df…62efbacked Arsenal	20c	300$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	33cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0180…b8cdbacked Arsenal	38c	261.82$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	89	27%24 W · 65 L	-11.9wins	-0.13per pick	40cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	38-0.10 edge/pick
0x75ef…cb71backed Arsenal	40c	252.83$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	46	56.5%26 W · 20 L	+4.0wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+15.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa43…3215backed Sunderland AFC	63c	239.08$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.08	25	56%14 W · 11 L	+2.1wins	+0.08per pick	48cpaid	+44%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a51…f9c0backed Arsenal	38c	233.92$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.39per pick	39cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef41…2473backed Arsenal	40c	226.5$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	90	37.8%34 W · 56 L	-6.2wins	-0.07per pick	45cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked Arsenal	44c	224.89$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.95	194	26.3%51 W · 143 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	24cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b2…3886backed Arsenal	40c	169.38$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.5	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c8b…b3c3backed Arsenal	18c	165$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.44	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	35cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x553b…f71cbacked Arsenal	38c	150$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	54	42.6%23 W · 31 L	-3.4wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa35f…b58fbacked Arsenal	40c	148.5$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.4	234	35.9%84 W · 150 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa710…f1ccbacked Arsenal	40c	134.43$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.77	353	28.6%101 W · 252 L	-6.1wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x385e…3896backed Arsenal	39c	128.21$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	118	39%46 W · 72 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb545…6e0abacked Arsenal	40c	125$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	39	30.8%12 W · 27 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2623…e65abacked Arsenal	40c	125$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Arsenal	36c	123.41$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.43	607	28%170 W · 437 L	+2.7wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Sunderland AFC	61c	121.55$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.66	577	44.4%256 W · 321 L	-6.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d57…9569backed Arsenal	19c	104.23$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.29per pick	21cpaid	+111.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf713…a97bbacked Arsenal	39c	99.99$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	37	32.4%12 W · 25 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	+15%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e7d…eedcbacked Arsenal	39c	99.56$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.8	82	42.7%35 W · 47 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a5c…b3f2backed Sunderland AFC	65c	94.88$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.31	259	49.4%128 W · 131 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-10%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Sunderland AFC	56c	84.31$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.85	1,006	46.6%469 W · 537 L	-20.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4417…8d57backed Arsenal	39c	80.28$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.31	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-3.3wins	-0.28per pick	44cpaid	-75%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x535d…6ff7backed Arsenal	40c	75$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+1.3wins	+0.14per pick	41cpaid	+43.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Arsenal	43c	68.82$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.63	228	34.2%78 W · 150 L	+4.4wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd960…1adebacked Sunderland AFC	62c	64.52$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.52	159	49.7%79 W · 80 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd55…c9bfbacked Sunderland AFC	62c	64.48$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.48	109	50.5%55 W · 54 L	+11.5wins	+0.11per pick	40cpaid	+32%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xad85…ed5bbacked Arsenal	33c	60.61$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.7wins	-0.22per pick	47cpaid	-56.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8217…4936backed Arsenal	38c	54$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.52	96	50%48 W · 48 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7181…1b0abacked Sunderland AFC	64c	51.56$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.56	80	48.8%39 W · 41 L	-7.1wins	-0.09per pick	58cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xced0…c680backed Arsenal	39c	51.28$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	31	48.4%15 W · 16 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Sunderland AFC	63c	49.49$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.49	428	62.4%267 W · 161 L	-11.7wins	-0.03per pick	65cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e3e…7fccbacked Sunderland AFC	63c	47.63$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.63	60	45%27 W · 33 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e7f…bce6backed Sunderland AFC	68c	46.76$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.16	55	45.5%25 W · 30 L	+7.1wins	+0.13per pick	33cpaid	+75.7%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf4e9…8f51backed Arsenal	44c	45.45$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+1.2wins	+0.08per pick	45cpaid	+64.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x81fa…c4d6backed Arsenal	44c	45.45$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	85	42.4%36 W · 49 L	-3.4wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x725a…c06cbacked Arsenal	44c	45.45$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	36	38.9%14 W · 22 L	-4.4wins	-0.12per pick	51cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0d27…bd5abacked Sunderland AFC	63c	44.77$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.77	65	49.2%32 W · 33 L	-8.0wins	-0.12per pick	62cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5fa6…03ebbacked Arsenal	38c	41$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.58	119	55.5%66 W · 53 L	+13.0wins	+0.11per pick	45cpaid	+23.7%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7795…1db8backed Arsenal	49c	40.92$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	69	55.1%38 W · 31 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	58cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x16c8…2f76backed Sunderland AFC	62c	40.32$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.32	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-4.1wins	-0.22per pick	53cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7e7e…425ebacked Arsenal	39c	38.46$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	51	45.1%23 W · 28 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb6…9decbacked Sunderland AFC	58c	38.21$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.01	51	41.2%21 W · 30 L	-2.8wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x59eb…fa33backed Sunderland AFC	61c	36.62$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.28	33	45.5%15 W · 18 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73a6…8924backed Sunderland AFC	70c	35.47$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.47	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4960…3cd7backed Arsenal	30c	35$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.65	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.45per pick	45cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Sunderland AFC	60c	30$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12	53	39.6%21 W · 32 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbe2…88debacked Sunderland AFC	50c	28.08$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.04	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.50per pick	50cpaid	+100%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Sunderland AFC	59c	26.91$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.03	492	54.9%270 W · 222 L	+5.4wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87a2…a40fbacked Arsenal	50c	25.47$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.74	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a54…f7f9backed Arsenal	40c	25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	25	40%10 W · 15 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf1d…1767backed Sunderland AFC	59c	24.56$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.07	14	71.4%10 W · 4 L	+1.0wins	+0.07per pick	64cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2eb1…1109backed Sunderland AFC	59c	23.73$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.73	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.5wins	-0.19per pick	57cpaid	-39.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d60…50dbbacked Sunderland AFC	64c	23.44$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.44	53	64.2%34 W · 19 L	+2.5wins	+0.05per pick	59cpaid	+7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3501…0591backed Sunderland AFC	62c	22$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.36	13	69.2%9 W · 4 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	64cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5714…ce3dbacked Arsenal	50c	22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcec0…82ddbacked Sunderland AFC	62c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.6	21	66.7%14 W · 7 L	+2.7wins	+0.13per pick	54cpaid	+26.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x288e…3334backed Sunderland AFC	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.50per pick	50cpaid	+100%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Arsenal (-1.5)this page
Sunderland AFC vs. Arsenal: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Sunderland AFC vs. Arsenal: O/U 2.5Over won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Arsenal (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event