TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: REKONIX vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
REKONIXof REKONIX, Tundra Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$193,559
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$229,235

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $193,559 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 166 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked Tundra Esports61c17,557$10,659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,659.092,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8479…40dfbacked REKONIX24c15,136$3,654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,481.6910751.4%55 W · 52 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6f5…f3b5backed Tundra Esports76c10,000$7,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,60018351.9%95 W · 88 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Tundra Esports45c8,985$4,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,042.8196557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed REKONIX30c8,156$2,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,710.642650%213 W · 213 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbff7…92fbbacked REKONIX55c6,668$3,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,988.2227143.5%118 W · 153 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked REKONIX29c5,250$1,528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,722.4580256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked REKONIX31c5,165$1,613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,552.431,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Tundra Esports70c5,000$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,50019847%93 W · 105 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4f9…0a00backed REKONIX37c4,083$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,583.149158.2%53 W · 38 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Tundra Esports69c4,037$2,774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,774.0449455.1%272 W · 222 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed REKONIX30c3,858$1,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,700.5622848.2%110 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf991…3965backed REKONIX24c3,631$871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,760.1731248.4%151 W · 161 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75bd…0288backed Tundra Esports54c3,604$1,932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,932.4513456%75 W · 59 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xef62…cf76backed Tundra Esports71c3,214$2,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,266.9643344.8%194 W · 239 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Tundra Esports36c3,047$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.931,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Tundra Esports60c2,793$1,664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,664.281,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed REKONIX28c2,783$778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,005.241,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Tundra Esports35c2,560$907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$907.281,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x31d4…a7abbacked Tundra Esports46c2,470$1,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,136.2316541.2%68 W · 97 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x449f…cf01backed Tundra Esports75c2,340$1,755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,755250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+31.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Tundra Esports70c2,285$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,599.541351.8%214 W · 199 L+1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Tundra Esports31c2,124$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651.7345750.8%232 W · 225 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Tundra Esports37c2,045$766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$766.451,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Tundra Esports70c2,001$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,400.2829348.5%142 W · 151 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed Tundra Esports63c1,854$1,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,159.4660552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked REKONIX26c1,777$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,315.234544.3%153 W · 192 L-15.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed REKONIX30c1,756$527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,229.3869644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked Tundra Esports71c1,718$1,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,212.3235951.3%184 W · 175 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab04…a00abacked REKONIX36c1,695$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,084.7837945.9%174 W · 205 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed Tundra Esports2c1,683$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5740014.8%59 W · 341 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe584…9bb3backed Tundra Esports69c1,614$1,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,115.894654.3%25 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked REKONIX48c1,536$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$792.011,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed REKONIX25c1,514$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,135.656955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked REKONIX62c1,507$936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571.7177256.5%436 W · 336 L+30.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3413…8ff2backed REKONIX31c1,500$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,03547646.4%221 W · 255 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x500f…94bfbacked Tundra Esports61c1,434$871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$870.5213558.5%79 W · 56 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Tundra Esports5c1,400$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked REKONIX77c1,264$975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.0292056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbc9c…b01cbacked REKONIX40c1,249$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$748.937034.3%24 W · 46 L-7.3wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-30.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed REKONIX45c1,225$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$678.5255147.5%262 W · 289 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5054…0aafbacked REKONIX28c1,169$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841.6713851.4%71 W · 67 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa14c…23a1backed REKONIX28c1,134$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$820.6135151.3%180 W · 171 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked REKONIX40c1,093$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.5260646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed REKONIX31c999.98$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$689.9918550.8%94 W · 91 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b12…5f8fbacked REKONIX30c987.38$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691.1729548.5%143 W · 152 L+0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c27…cb5bbacked Tundra Esports75c949.99$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.998469%58 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Tundra Esports20c946$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.461,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked REKONIX29c822.79$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.0461456%344 W · 270 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked REKONIX59c814.36$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.071,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb69…cfd1backed REKONIX76c785.69$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.6930356.4%171 W · 132 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Tundra Esports37c762.99$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.6156548%271 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeed6…ec56backed REKONIX60c754$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.62576%19 W · 6 L+3.7wins+0.15per pick61cpaid+23.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed Tundra Esports36c698.84$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25096245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00f8…2c23backed Tundra Esports44c681.82$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030534.4%105 W · 200 L-14.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x009b…26dabacked Tundra Esports42c631.33$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.6521144.1%93 W · 118 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed REKONIX59c599.34$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.272,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Tundra Esports20c588.65$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.7350749.7%252 W · 255 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe84a…702dbacked Tundra Esports43c578.44$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25015949.7%79 W · 80 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed Tundra Esports40c531.17$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.4744645.7%204 W · 242 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6117…2fafbacked REKONIX73c513.77$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.9717373.4%127 W · 46 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Tundra Esports34c504.72$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1731,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Tundra Esports62c499.8$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.091,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x63a2…5bc1backed Tundra Esports20c492.67$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.812638.9%49 W · 77 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd9d…f409backed Tundra Esports40c492$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.82751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Tundra Esports52c463.69$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.291553.3%488 W · 427 L+48.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked REKONIX61c449.99$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.6677458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Tundra Esports43c437.88$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.4910735.5%38 W · 69 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-28.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96ef…cca4backed Tundra Esports36c432.4$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.3116242.6%69 W · 93 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked REKONIX60c382.84$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.1439660.1%238 W · 158 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43dc…86e1backed REKONIX57c366.45$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.4524244.6%108 W · 134 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed REKONIX59c338$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.5854246.7%253 W · 289 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30d1…2ecdbacked Tundra Esports30c333.26$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1112533.6%42 W · 83 L+0.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Tundra Esports59c333$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.4711654.3%63 W · 53 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Tundra Esports78c319.55$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.2522363.2%141 W · 82 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed REKONIX22c318.02$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.0257735%202 W · 375 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked REKONIX79c311.07$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.5396645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc52…dfcebacked REKONIX31c310.98$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.5814454.2%78 W · 66 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x473f…9892backed Tundra Esports48c309.96$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15050053%265 W · 235 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Tundra Esports24c309.4$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.3353139.5%210 W · 321 L-37.2wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf34b…bcb3backed REKONIX32c307.78$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.2958356.8%331 W · 252 L+28.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x703b…e371backed Tundra Esports15c299.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4551544.9%231 W · 284 L+40.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+3.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x3741…517ebacked Tundra Esports18c299.99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5437047%174 W · 196 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed REKONIX28c297$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.8441050.2%206 W · 204 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Tundra Esports69c290$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.156852.5%298 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked REKONIX67c290$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.388166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbb11…66cbbacked Tundra Esports71c280$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.214744.9%66 W · 81 L+0.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fd7…d5a3backed Tundra Esports46c265$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.9666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd206…bd2abacked REKONIX45c263.7$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.0815957.2%91 W · 68 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Tundra Esports40c260$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10461057.9%353 W · 257 L+2.8wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf27…026fbacked REKONIX32c250$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17065863.1%415 W · 243 L+17.5wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc159…f3c8backed Tundra Esports43c216.05$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.7319238.5%74 W · 118 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Tundra Esports76c208.33$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.3317146.2%79 W · 92 L-8.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xed94…c059backed REKONIX24c208.33$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.332100%2 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+325.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf67d…c986backed Tundra Esports20c207.35$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.0339042.1%164 W · 226 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c8f…4d12backed REKONIX53c205.79$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.9335062.6%219 W · 131 L+44.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+26.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x953e…79ffbacked Tundra Esports56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11228050%140 W · 140 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73e6…eca0backed Tundra Esports40c200$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805461.1%33 W · 21 L+4.6wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x80f0…5576backed Tundra Esports68c199.4$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.5930%0 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked REKONIX58c187.49$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.31,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.