TailMyPicks
Market

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs 1win - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
1winof Nigma Galaxy, 1win
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$235,251
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$285,601

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $235,251 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 207 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed 1win61c31,643$19,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,442.781,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9eca…5a59backed 1win67c18,741$12,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,119.0740051.5%206 W · 194 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd30…f316backed Nigma Galaxy37c16,516$6,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,073.8812159.5%72 W · 49 L+9.2wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+10.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Nigma Galaxy35c11,766$4,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,075.6171143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73bc…46cebacked Nigma Galaxy40c8,007$3,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,168.6310540%42 W · 63 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Nigma Galaxy41c7,726$3,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,152.821,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x04f6…f24abacked 1win60c7,666$4,615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,051.0150347.1%237 W · 266 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad42…6031backed Nigma Galaxy34c6,136$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1008648.8%42 W · 44 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked 1win58c5,000$2,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,10013960.4%84 W · 55 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Nigma Galaxy39c5,000$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,949.9929348.5%142 W · 151 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde24…4dedbacked Nigma Galaxy32c4,571$1,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,462.3819853%105 W · 93 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Nigma Galaxy38c4,250$1,598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,597.522727.3%62 W · 165 L-9.7wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x79ae…9a4abacked Nigma Galaxy33c3,805$1,271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,271.0423435.9%84 W · 150 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Nigma Galaxy40c3,250$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,300.0927153.5%145 W · 126 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed 1win61c3,105$1,879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,225.630357.1%173 W · 130 L+12.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Nigma Galaxy34c3,058$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,039.7241351.8%214 W · 199 L+1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a01…c89ebacked Nigma Galaxy3c2,727$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8928251.8%146 W · 136 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbd9…de31backed 1win62c2,515$1,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$962.9814258.5%83 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed97…8932backed 1win60c2,500$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-22.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Nigma Galaxy32c2,466$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.4188539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2eea…1a4cbacked Nigma Galaxy43c2,376$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,01012858.6%75 W · 53 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Nigma Galaxy42c2,368$993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992.9745750.8%232 W · 225 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Nigma Galaxy36c2,337$848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$847.641,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Nigma Galaxy42c2,140$905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905.261,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a56…10f5backed 1win62c1,801$1,117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684.3318950.8%96 W · 93 L+10.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4aec…4ce9backed 1win68c1,788$1,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.3930667.3%206 W · 100 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x880d…39bcbacked Nigma Galaxy27c1,750$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47032756.9%186 W · 141 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3752…2f08backed Nigma Galaxy41c1,659$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.6934442.2%145 W · 199 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked 1win61c1,648$1,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642.2131936.7%117 W · 202 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05a7…42e6backed 1win67c1,635$1,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.1841056.8%233 W · 177 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0e1…b9b4backed 1win60c1,600$962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.999852%51 W · 47 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0f5…3d04backed Nigma Galaxy51c1,552$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.0551049%250 W · 260 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Nigma Galaxy42c1,500$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.551,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Nigma Galaxy42c1,500$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63086659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked Nigma Galaxy40c1,500$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60035951.3%184 W · 175 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed Nigma Galaxy25c1,500$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.543738.4%168 W · 269 L-1.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed 1win66c1,489$982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.1353652.6%282 W · 254 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed Nigma Galaxy36c1,482$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53072035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x93bd…bbc5backed 1win68c1,474$1,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.0653764.4%346 W · 191 L+26.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed 1win65c1,455$943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511.8377941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc9d…de16backed Nigma Galaxy34c1,404$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.218965.2%58 W · 31 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2929…1dd0backed 1win68c1,258$861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.7616553.3%88 W · 77 L+7.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x47e8…efdcbacked 1win69c1,250$862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.3619456.2%109 W · 85 L+13.1wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed 1win57c1,238$706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.3464744.4%287 W · 360 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x177e…c244backed Nigma Galaxy29c1,150$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.529546.1%136 W · 159 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31dd…4537backed 1win50c1,150$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5758925.8%23 W · 66 L-6.8wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x958c…a328backed Nigma Galaxy41c1,120$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.9728347%133 W · 150 L+10.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x86bf…a172backed Nigma Galaxy44c1,101$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.574139%16 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x928d…5069backed 1win76c1,061$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.943056.7%17 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Nigma Galaxy40c1,058$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.091,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8840…f51abacked Nigma Galaxy1c1,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11205%1 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+150%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e89…af95backed Nigma Galaxy37c1,000$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37014943.6%65 W · 84 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9aff…b136backed Nigma Galaxy25c999.98$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.4932445.1%146 W · 178 L+14.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe5bc…a013backed 1win60c995.23$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.236342.9%27 W · 36 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-21.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Nigma Galaxy27c984.66$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.0791553.3%488 W · 427 L+48.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x36d9…c3cabacked 1win68c974.22$658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.4944149.4%218 W · 223 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8154…7d37backed Nigma Galaxy37c965$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.0520233.2%67 W · 135 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed 1win62c938.02$577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.7655751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60dd…40e5backed 1win72c933.63$676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.4933453%177 W · 157 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Nigma Galaxy44c930.92$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.8550353.9%271 W · 232 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc646…e394backed Nigma Galaxy44c900$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39637655.1%207 W · 169 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed 1win70c833.87$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.0693546.4%434 W · 501 L-15.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72c8…a74cbacked 1win64c799.99$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28824942.6%106 W · 143 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf346…1b8ebacked Nigma Galaxy38c796.33$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30022438.8%87 W · 137 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-17.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeebb…0b96backed 1win58c726.67$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.212740.2%51 W · 76 L+0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid+7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed 1win60c719.89$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.961,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x051d…1992backed Nigma Galaxy3c700$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218213.4%11 W · 71 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x85e9…2eeabacked 1win75c689.77$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.446767.2%45 W · 22 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5b5…205abacked Nigma Galaxy36c615.84$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.2631953.9%172 W · 147 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x242c…ddd2backed Nigma Galaxy18c575.9$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.821447.2%101 W · 113 L+16.7wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x21c7…42e7backed 1win68c574.99$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.210256.9%58 W · 44 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc444…416cbacked Nigma Galaxy32c560.64$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18017550.9%89 W · 86 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x249f…fed3backed 1win73c560.42$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.3762650.5%316 W · 310 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed 1win71c558.22$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.8179959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfe97…361ebacked 1win69c543.98$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.153275%24 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed 1win65c531.99$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.9196557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked 1win79c530.5$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.8588166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5502…d440backed 1win64c500$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18045457.5%261 W · 193 L+39.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+14%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xad2a…99a3backed Nigma Galaxy30c494.99$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.0223736.7%87 W · 150 L-17.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x21cc…54bcbacked Nigma Galaxy41c487.8$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008442.9%36 W · 48 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed 1win75c475.1$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.2352046.5%242 W · 278 L+12.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfeb…763ebacked Nigma Galaxy36c474.69$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.3611535.7%41 W · 74 L-6.7wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-24.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7126…bfcbbacked Nigma Galaxy40c470.25$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18811249.1%55 W · 57 L+6.9wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+16.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c7b…6e9dbacked Nigma Galaxy39c469.54$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.1225246.8%118 W · 134 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85b9…1c02backed 1win64c461.77$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.121060%6 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-10.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0328…bd17backed Nigma Galaxy44c454.86$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008957.3%51 W · 38 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd19e…d70ebacked 1win75c444$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11120859.6%124 W · 84 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed 1win57c434.87$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.8965441.9%274 W · 380 L-1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cdd…974bbacked Nigma Galaxy3c426.36$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.65616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-78.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d6f…789bbacked Nigma Galaxy32c411$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.34742.6%20 W · 27 L-5.2wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-26%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe559…b262backed 1win56c406.55$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.887635.5%27 W · 49 L-6.2wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-27.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2262…ef1cbacked Nigma Galaxy10c400.1$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403540%14 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7d6…cab5backed 1win65c399.99$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.551364.9%333 W · 180 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x631a…a80fbacked Nigma Galaxy39c397.44$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15520542.9%88 W · 117 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08cf…22b9backed 1win66c380.97$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.3453758.8%316 W · 221 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2172…5cdabacked 1win66c378.94$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.942454.2%13 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x948a…d1a4backed 1win55c363.64$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.6424255%133 W · 109 L+14.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked Nigma Galaxy14c352.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050850.8%258 W · 250 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82f3…5cd4backed Nigma Galaxy40c350.08$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.122166.7%14 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+13.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x15d1…ccfebacked Nigma Galaxy32c350$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11254659.7%326 W · 220 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.