NBA · resolved market

Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 225.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabe4058a768f24b9a228f844c0e2ce7de27d5ea45faa38a204a26c8512f556d0

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Mar 3, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $32,238
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $34,582

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,238 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Under	45c	5,305$2,398 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,906.65	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	39c	4,314$1,692 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,691.5	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over	54c	3,133$1,683 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,683.34	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under	60c	2,761$1,666 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,094.99	2,949	51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L	+119.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Over	4c	2,634$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.81	679	21.4%145 W · 534 L	+32.4wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+33.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under	56c	2,309$1,296 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,013.59	2,468	50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L	+38.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f95…b08bbacked Over	54c	2,097$1,133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,132.56	32	50%16 W · 16 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under	46c	2,082$948 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,134.12	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44e5…3c33backed Over	57c	1,851$1,055 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,055	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xbff9…009dbacked Over	53c	999.99$530 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$529.99	270	52.6%142 W · 128 L	+4.1wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6eb…5402backed Over	58c	999.92$577 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$577	111	59.5%66 W · 45 L	+4.3wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Over	54c	930$502 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$502.2	348	55.2%192 W · 156 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77fe…551dbacked Under	48c	833.33$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$433.33	244	50%122 W · 122 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Under	42c	800$340 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$460	807	37.7%304 W · 503 L	-33.9wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xed8f…5aa7backed Under	45c	784.36$353 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$431.4	171	44.4%76 W · 95 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ba1…b0b6backed Over	58c	586.23$342 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$342.17	49	46.9%23 W · 26 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over	45c	543.8$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245.49	5,844	46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L	+32.7wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over	57c	458$261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$261.06	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Over	33c	429.03$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.67	1,645	47.5%782 W · 863 L	+40.9wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5140…9951backed Over	57c	351.3$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	82	63.4%52 W · 30 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	64cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over	40c	333.55$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.57	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under	41c	323.13$134 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$189.58	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Over	40c	318.95$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.21	1,532	42.5%651 W · 881 L	-17.3wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under	50c	304.87$152 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$152.76	2,208	46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L	+42.7wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under	43c	300$129 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$171	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over	46c	269.88$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.95	3,341	53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L	+108.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Under	46c	261.67$121 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$140.91	456	46.7%213 W · 243 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed Under	53c	260.15$137 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.7	831	58.1%483 W · 348 L	+18.3wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51bb…a919backed Under	46c	258.69$119 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$139.69	73	50.7%37 W · 36 L	+4.7wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x18b2…9141backed Over	59c	221.29$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	64	53.1%34 W · 30 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3502…7057backed Over	59c	203.39$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	182	56.6%103 W · 79 L	+7.4wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0307…7ab8backed Under	60c	202.42$121 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.49	454	52%236 W · 218 L	+11.9wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Under	64c	163.43$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.59	207	41.1%85 W · 122 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Over	35c	142.38$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.27	106	37.7%40 W · 66 L	+9.3wins	+0.09per pick	29cpaid	+47.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under	60c	139.89$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.53	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under	44c	137.93$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.24	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Under	44c	137.34$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.96	565	47.8%270 W · 295 L	+9.5wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e29…9e66backed Over	45c	129.42$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.08	502	41.2%207 W · 295 L	-3.8wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under	47c	127.63$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.64	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c5b…aab5backed Over	53c	122.87$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.93	74	29.7%22 W · 52 L	-9.6wins	-0.13per pick	43cpaid	-40%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7634…600dbacked Over	54c	99.96$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.98	280	56.8%159 W · 121 L	+22.2wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+50.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4f2c…9d16backed Over	32c	95$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-2.1wins	-0.12per pick	40cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ed8…0e99backed Over	56c	93.6$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.18	456	53.5%244 W · 212 L	-4.0wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd81c…0a81backed Over	57c	87.72$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	43	60.5%26 W · 17 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	62cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb870…5a8abacked Under	62c	85.26$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.4	918	46.2%424 W · 494 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2fd5…ef85backed Under	65c	84.61$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.61	127	47.2%60 W · 67 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-10%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under	45c	80$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.73	903	57%515 W · 388 L	+40.0wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Under	46c	79$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.97	880	57.5%506 W · 374 L	+34.6wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe276…a85bbacked Under	46c	76.31$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.31	125	52%65 W · 60 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed Under	49c	70.78$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.09	156	63.5%99 W · 57 L	+10.9wins	+0.07per pick	56cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6276…7f2ebacked Under	73c	68.49$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.49	191	66.5%127 W · 64 L	+7.1wins	+0.04per pick	63cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a25…bb6bbacked Under	46c	63.28$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.17	340	47.1%160 W · 180 L	-10.3wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04b4…8d0bbacked Under	46c	63.28$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.17	572	50%286 W · 286 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xead8…ce1abacked Under	50c	62.6$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.3	61	41%25 W · 36 L	-4.2wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Under	46c	61.72$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.63	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Under	41c	55.93$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33	786	48.7%383 W · 403 L	+6.1wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76ba…dcfdbacked Over	47c	53.8$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.36	38	71.1%27 W · 11 L	+2.2wins	+0.06per pick	65cpaid	+7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2254…e6e5backed Over	47c	52.65$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	47	34%16 W · 31 L	-6.5wins	-0.14per pick	48cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Under	43c	49.99$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.5	661	43.4%287 W · 374 L	-32.6wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x43e0…132abacked Over	33c	49.99$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	136	39.7%54 W · 82 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under	46c	48.87$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.39	454	45.4%206 W · 248 L	-6.2wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c93…0fb8backed Over	44c	45.45$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	256	55.5%142 W · 114 L	+10.7wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x36f4…7518backed Over	57c	43.79$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe170…8679backed Under	77c	36.8$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.33	40	52.5%21 W · 19 L	+4.6wins	+0.12per pick	41cpaid	+28.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xef1f…3df5backed Over	55c	34.55$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.15per pick	55cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x353f…bdd4backed Over	43c	32.5$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.85	40	62.5%25 W · 15 L	+5.1wins	+0.13per pick	50cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5558…f9c4backed Under	51c	29.99$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.7	375	49.6%186 W · 189 L	+5.1wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Under	47c	28.08$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.85	1,197	48.9%585 W · 612 L	-14.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3e7…a322backed Over	58c	25.86$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	61	57.4%35 W · 26 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x44e4…f624backed Over	54c	25$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	80	48.8%39 W · 41 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Under	53c	23.58$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.08	658	72.8%479 W · 179 L	+46.1wins	+0.07per pick	66cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb165…daf7backed Over	58c	23.5$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.63	5	60%3 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	61cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Under	48c	23.33$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.13	870	49.3%429 W · 441 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x10cd…2da0backed Over	70c	18.49$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.87	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-2.9wins	-0.14per pick	33cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9b43…33cebacked Under	62c	17.5$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.65	36	66.7%24 W · 12 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	64cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 225.5this page
Ausar Thompson: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 25.5No won
Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
Jalen Duren: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
James Harden: Points O/U 20.5No won
Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 16.5No won
Jaylon Tyson: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
Jaylon Tyson: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
Pistons vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 226.5Under won
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 227.5Under won
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 228.5Under won
Ron Holland II: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
Spread: Pistons (-1.5)Cavaliers won
Spread: Pistons (-2.5)Cavaliers won
Tobias Harris: Points O/U 13.5Yes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 225.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event