Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-09-27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad01427b5bf8f9d38c1cac814d501076a9789c8abdb6b88c656374a998950294
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $555,749
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $576,977
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $555,749 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2635…5408backed No | 20c | 403,904$79,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79,555.18 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 80c | 115,000$92,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,000 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed No | 19c | 25,886$4,858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,858.49 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked No | 18c | 6,978$1,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,271.12 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed No | 19c | 6,194$1,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,198.49 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +7.1wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 18c | 6,193$1,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,114.75 | 133 | 48.9%65 W · 68 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…141dbacked Yes | 80c | 5,561$4,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,112.2 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…4af9backed No | 15c | 5,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…94bcbacked No | 18c | 4,440$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 18c | 4,245$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$771.33 | 215 | 60%129 W · 86 L | +15.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 18c | 3,371$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.05 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 18c | 3,226$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.93 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc864…97dfbacked No | 18c | 3,178$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.04 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…3aa5backed No | 18c | 2,728$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +132.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c2…4074backed No | 18c | 2,220$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 17c | 2,173$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.49 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed No | 15c | 1,967$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 14c | 1,922$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.69 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4c…6579backed No | 6c | 1,526$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8d…8189backed No | 16c | 1,180$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd470…783ebacked No | 17c | 1,142$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 10c | 1,141$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +184.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66f3…2252backed No | 13c | 1,100$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb21c…3aedbacked No | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed No | 15c | 999.97$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 14c | 911.53$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.61 | 143 | 46.9%67 W · 76 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 15c | 898.9$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.84 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d52…834ebacked No | 19c | 807.68$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.46 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 15c | 713.95$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.95 | 208 | 60.6%126 W · 82 L | +12.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed No | 13c | 599.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 77c | 590$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.4 | 110 | 70%77 W · 33 L | +18.3wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked No | 16c | 517.95$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.87 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 15c | 410.45$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.46 | 232 | 60.8%141 W · 91 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 20c | 356.46$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.22 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x666b…2b83backed Yes | 75c | 350$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked No | 15c | 300.88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.22 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…6980backed No | 16c | 272.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.78 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 15c | 209.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x123a…b038backed Yes | 79c | 189.87$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed No | 25c | 184$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 15c | 140$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Yes | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 15c | 130$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 229 | 27.5%63 W · 166 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4234…6b87backed Yes | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 50cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…4cc0backed Yes | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 15c | 111.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…73cebacked Yes | 78c | 101.28$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eac…4c8cbacked No | 18c | 101$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 14c | 98.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5532…c6dbbacked No | 17c | 90.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aaa…0c04backed No | 17c | 89.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 79c | 76$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 246 | 42.3%104 W · 142 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc487…dc86backed Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…8d6dbacked Yes | 80c | 50.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe936…8944backed Yes | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-09-27?this page
- Will AJ Auxerre win on 2025-09-27?No won
- Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. AJ Auxerre end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.