Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xadc3a294e49318e140ba7b77234d11128908b803d4babe2b11a3362a4ea965b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,068
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,548
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,068 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 48c | 1,068$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.67 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 30c | 652.02$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.05 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 56c | 476.94$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 48c | 411.5$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.58 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e88…697dbacked No | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 62c | 324.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.62 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 34c | 268$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.6 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 44c | 251.94$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.26 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 41c | 247.29$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.58 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 45c | 246.2$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.41 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 43c | 246.13$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.33 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 42c | 209.34$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.37 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 52c | 192.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.15 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 46c | 188.26$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.48 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 47c | 178.81$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.93 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 47c | 169.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.3 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 49c | 154$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.19 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 59c | 150$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 63c | 146$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.52 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 55c | 145.54$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.54 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88e0…ceeebacked No | 35c | 143.02$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.54 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcef8…a4edbacked Yes | 37c | 137.04$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.45 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -5.5wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -71%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 26c | 132.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 45c | 132.61$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.27 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 21c | 130.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 59c | 125$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 33c | 122.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…0c1dbacked No | 45c | 118.07$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.03 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 73c | 109.1$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 38c | 104$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 17c | 100.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 58c | 99.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 75c | 98.74$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 66c | 90.67$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 38c | 89.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 62c | 80.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 61c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 61c | 79$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 27c | 72.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 41c | 69.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…9f83backed Yes | 74c | 67.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 84 | 76.2%64 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 54c | 61.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 45c | 60.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 35c | 57.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 43c | 57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 68c | 56.17$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 38c | 55.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9c…8a0abacked No | 36c | 54.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 62c | 53.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 57c | 52.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…2ee3backed Yes | 38c | 50.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 34c | 50.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 46c | 47.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 45.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 56c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 80c | 42.89$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 70c | 42.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x722e…faddbacked No | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba6d…9128backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed No | 62c | 39.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbca…dc2cbacked Yes | 67c | 39.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f13…72b5backed Yes | 65c | 38.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 52c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 52c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes | 62c | 32.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72c8…c4b6backed Yes | 62c | 31.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 47c | 31.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 63c | 31.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…640cbacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Yes | 66c | 29.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 61c | 29.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…54c0backed No | 44c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 65c | 27.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda04…6c48backed Yes | 70c | 27.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…825ebacked Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x555a…931abacked Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 67cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked Yes | 46c | 27.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…e538backed Yes | 46c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 53c | 26.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 78c | 25.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 52c | 24.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 55c | 24.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ec…082cbacked Yes | 52c | 24.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 54c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 74c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 47c | 22.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f17…9ec2backed Yes | 65c | 21.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 65c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.