Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25465e9cc6410fff35d3f1271b3a5e3ddac3b1ea78845dac125d2d9e08025816
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,754
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,166
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,754 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 29c | 969.97$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 72c | 652$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.41 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 40c | 618.87$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 65c | 433.73$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.95 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 66c | 411.5$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.94 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 18c | 307.09$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.02 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 67c | 274.95$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.19 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 38c | 254.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.85 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 30c | 229.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.07 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 215.44$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.73 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 68c | 212.35$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.91 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 40c | 189.72$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.98 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 33c | 172.36$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.1 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcef8…a4edbacked Yes | 31c | 164.75$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.72 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -5.5wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -71%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 155.39$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.16 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 33c | 134.28$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.94 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 132.8$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 130.6$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.85 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 67c | 123.53$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.23 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 65c | 120$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.2 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 66c | 119.24$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.27 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 69c | 98.61$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74c0…74a2backed Yes | 34c | 92.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 33c | 90.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 88.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 35c | 81.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 27c | 81.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 47c | 78.94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 64c | 72.8$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 25c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 73c | 68.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x830b…c771backed Yes | 39c | 68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | +136.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 73c | 63.67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed No | 73c | 62.54$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 33c | 59.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 38c | 56.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…2ee3backed Yes | 36c | 53.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 68c | 53$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 52.46$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 27c | 51.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 35c | 49.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e9…1f83backed Yes | 36c | 49.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cf…b443backed Yes | 45c | 46.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 45.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 70c | 45.07$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed No | 68c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x410b…c47cbacked No | 69c | 40.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 64c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 65c | 34.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44ec…082cbacked Yes | 32c | 31.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda04…6c48backed No | 74c | 30.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 69c | 30.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 69c | 29.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 71c | 27.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 69c | 27.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba6d…9128backed No | 70c | 27.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…825ebacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 70c | 25.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 72c | 24.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 64c | 24.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 73c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 73c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 80c | 23.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 66c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…f3a4backed No | 69c | 20.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 65c | 20.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6851…ec54backed No | 69c | 19.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…689bbacked No | 68c | 19.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 62c | 16.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 70c | 15.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x11ea…1676backed No | 67c | 14.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…67abbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -3.6wins | -0.36per pick | 76cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on August 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.