TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Euroleague · resolved market

Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Shanghai Sharksof Shanghai Sharks, Zhejiang Lions
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$160,134
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$178,517

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $160,134 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 203 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Euroleague
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7120…7c4ebacked Zhejiang Lions13c10,163$1,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,347.116116.4%10 W · 51 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-60.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Zhejiang Lions31c8,077$2,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,522.886338.1%24 W · 39 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+15.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf658…655ebacked Shanghai Sharks73c6,420$4,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,720.035360.4%32 W · 21 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd599…bf55backed Zhejiang Lions28c5,032$1,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,413.18333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-23.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Zhejiang Lions15c4,043$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.7113046.2%60 W · 70 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd529…f0d4backed Zhejiang Lions36c3,399$1,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,211.52250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Zhejiang Lions28c3,075$848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$847.531241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed Zhejiang Lions28c3,000$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$839.982842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0de…8048backed Shanghai Sharks74c2,992$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$792.011662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe237…d862backed Zhejiang Lions32c2,887$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8452…cc80backed Zhejiang Lions29c2,826$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$832.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02c7…0927backed Shanghai Sharks72c2,804$2,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$775.31560%9 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Zhejiang Lions27c2,631$718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$718.4324430.3%74 W · 170 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Shanghai Sharks72c2,409$1,733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$675.7213545.9%62 W · 73 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed Shanghai Sharks69c2,174$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$673.911850%9 W · 9 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Shanghai Sharks70c2,035$1,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.464443.2%19 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1316…48a4backed Shanghai Sharks70c2,000$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.993855.3%21 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Shanghai Sharks68c1,969$1,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622.886162.3%38 W · 23 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Zhejiang Lions25c1,884$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.065230.8%16 W · 36 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf70b…5166backed Shanghai Sharks74c1,624$1,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.39366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-9.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Zhejiang Lions25c1,600$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4007138%27 W · 44 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Zhejiang Lions28c1,580$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.425844.8%26 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4f3…3bbebacked Shanghai Sharks72c1,436$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.44425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-65.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Zhejiang Lions26c1,426$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.7126935.3%95 W · 174 L-10.9wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-18%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ea8…25f9backed Shanghai Sharks74c1,324$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.68560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-17.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45b5…2d74backed Zhejiang Lions41c1,193$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.41333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf348…e543backed Zhejiang Lions21c1,142$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.033823.7%9 W · 29 L-4.6wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-53.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Shanghai Sharks52c1,008$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.074551.1%23 W · 22 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bd4…5aaebacked Zhejiang Lions40c1,005$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.74475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+34.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked Zhejiang Lions27c1,004$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.41637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-18.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked Shanghai Sharks70c1,000$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3004148.8%20 W · 21 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+24.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cf0…8b2bbacked Zhejiang Lions25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-59.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8eb6…8e13backed Zhejiang Lions22c964.91$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.6650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+28%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Shanghai Sharks70c957.42$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.99450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Shanghai Sharks62c935$577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.937052.7%195 W · 175 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x69b9…a5d5backed Zhejiang Lions22c909.09$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Shanghai Sharks79c886.16$703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.8536939.8%147 W · 222 L+1.7wins0.00per pick39cpaid-22.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Shanghai Sharks70c877.52$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.714452.3%23 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Shanghai Sharks53c852.63$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.5743543.7%190 W · 245 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde7d…499ebacked Zhejiang Lions20c793.91$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.411643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x433c…81eabacked Shanghai Sharks69c779.68$538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.7250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0dc…586cbacked Shanghai Sharks78c762.62$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.089100%9 W · 0 L+3.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+99.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed Zhejiang Lions26c750$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1951553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+26.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8aaa…d37dbacked Zhejiang Lions22c681.03$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66ea…6791backed Shanghai Sharks70c667.14$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.14366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5ff…abd0backed Zhejiang Lions27c666$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3914…3db9backed Zhejiang Lions43c644$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x803a…1856backed Zhejiang Lions17c615.74$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.08616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick38cpaid-78.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Shanghai Sharks78c522.83$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.175648.2%27 W · 29 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c63…3cbbbacked Zhejiang Lions51c518.65$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.19250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e94…7f1ebacked Zhejiang Lions24c500$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7738…5dbdbacked Zhejiang Lions39c500$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1951546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8494…814abacked Zhejiang Lions25c500$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb627…68b5backed Shanghai Sharks70c500$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1501100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbe8…1141backed Zhejiang Lions28c499.29$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.82227.3%6 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-34.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd1f…3b4dbacked Zhejiang Lions28c492.62$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13930%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed Zhejiang Lions26c490$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.453933.3%13 W · 26 L-6.6wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-28.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7d7f…86d2backed Shanghai Sharks64c489.11$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.836747.8%32 W · 35 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9a3…8652backed Zhejiang Lions15c470.79$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.4830%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x377c…72a1backed Zhejiang Lions26c468.39$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed Shanghai Sharks75c452.12$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1142142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-30.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac04…e6e0backed Shanghai Sharks70c424.53$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6d6…411cbacked Shanghai Sharks58c420.88$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.48475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Zhejiang Lions12c416.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010926.6%29 W · 80 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Shanghai Sharks77c415.07$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.832157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc367…a0b4backed Zhejiang Lions26c392.77$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.7110634.9%37 W · 69 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x58a0…d943backed Zhejiang Lions28c366.97$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabdd…cb3fbacked Zhejiang Lions28c357.74$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003721.6%8 W · 29 L-3.7wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-29.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb171…7d2bbacked Shanghai Sharks70c357.14$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.148760.9%53 W · 34 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xed31…d9c8backed Shanghai Sharks75c355$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.93475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+24.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Zhejiang Lions21c353.24$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.8121535.8%77 W · 138 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0176…910ebacked Shanghai Sharks59c337.19$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.191070%7 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x91dd…2730backed Zhejiang Lions26c335.73$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.02425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-67.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x27ee…b517backed Shanghai Sharks61c330$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1303243.8%14 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23bf…805cbacked Zhejiang Lions26c308.33$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-22.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xce5e…c0fabacked Shanghai Sharks69c301.26$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.391546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-13.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f7a…0f82backed Zhejiang Lions28c300$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841040%4 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf07…4a12backed Zhejiang Lions41c299.99$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8c2…45b2backed Shanghai Sharks70c299.03$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.53944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-23.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16bd…ed47backed Shanghai Sharks49c295$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.452646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid+70.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Zhejiang Lions27c287.28$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.2134344.3%152 W · 191 L-16.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Zhejiang Lions28c286.15$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.993732.4%12 W · 25 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a15…e238backed Shanghai Sharks71c281.69$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.691450%7 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d93…b34dbacked Shanghai Sharks75c281.69$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.692100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+59.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Zhejiang Lions23c275.04$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6435234.7%122 W · 230 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb967…3bfdbacked Shanghai Sharks74c271.47$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.472100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+51.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad31…1c1dbacked Shanghai Sharks75c266.67$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.67771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Zhejiang Lions7c262.49$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.05250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Shanghai Sharks58c262.33$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.975152.9%27 W · 24 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid-9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8d15…8026backed Shanghai Sharks59c252.97$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.971163.6%7 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda88…97d3backed Zhejiang Lions40c252.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-34.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4079…7126backed Zhejiang Lions19c252.17$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick23cpaid+42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x012d…9db6backed Shanghai Sharks69c251.87$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.875271.2%37 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eab…d4bfbacked Zhejiang Lions27c222.07$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd89d…d6b7backed Zhejiang Lions26c217.96$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-52.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3eeb…3300backed Shanghai Sharks70c214.29$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.29683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick67cpaid+27.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b5c…9a2bbacked Zhejiang Lions28c208$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.87425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-47.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd50f…2b9abacked Zhejiang Lions9c205.61$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed Zhejiang Lions28c203.79$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.06366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick35cpaid+98.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3449…4030backed Zhejiang Lions28c203.57$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.