NBA · resolved market
Pistons vs. Lakers: O/U 230.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf523a8b8bd216be46ecd4dd26ad820bdf6f486bad9a3901b826f69b2ccbde7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,374
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,374 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6184…79a2backed Over | 52c | 3,518$1,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,688.83 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca5…73bcbacked Over | 55c | 1,335$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.55 | 404 | 51.5%208 W · 196 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 52c | 982.8$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.44 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa14…f533backed Over | 80c | 337.09$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 51c | 260.08$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.44 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 53c | 258.46$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.48 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 45c | 217.37$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.68 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Under | 10c | 210$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…bfb9backed Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed Under | 45c | 128$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Under | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 337 | 30.3%102 W · 235 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b2…918abacked Over | 55c | 112$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +98.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Under | 45c | 105.6$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…caeabacked Over | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Over | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 628 | 48.7%306 W · 322 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3502…7057backed Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 182 | 56.6%103 W · 79 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…bdbabacked Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 156 | 57.7%90 W · 66 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…1b11backed Under | 43c | 72.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…265ebacked Over | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02b6…8f5fbacked Over | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -6.3wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7635…63f6backed Over | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 214 | 40.7%87 W · 127 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ab…8ae4backed Under | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…9b1ebacked Under | 45c | 62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 46c | 57.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…5c69backed Over | 76c | 53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fec…8dc3backed Over | 55c | 47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x110d…cd01backed Over | 58c | 42.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 345 | 56.2%194 W · 151 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Under | 45c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Over | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 52c | 39.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 44c | 39.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x152c…3b50backed Over | 55c | 39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…8137backed Over | 55c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f8…256ebacked Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…4599backed Under | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d8…480bbacked Under | 44c | 22.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9784…e452backed Over | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18dd…6bf2backed Over | 66c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -10.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8655…0853backed Over | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pistons vs. Lakers: O/U 230.5this page
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-1.5)Pistons won
- Pistons vs. LakersPistons won
- Pistons vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylinePistons won
- Pistons vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 119.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Lakers: O/U 231.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Lakers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Spread: Pistons (-2.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-3.5)Pistons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.